STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 10 January

[54anickel]

Monday January 10, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 10 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 30 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 84 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1145
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 7, 2005

Dow... 10,603.96 -18.92 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq... 2,088.61 -1.39 (-0.07%)
S&P 500... 1,186.19 -1.70 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.29% +0.01 (+0.30%)
Gold future... 419.50 -2.10 (-0.50%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[54anickel]

1. Today's WrapUp by Tim W. Wood 01.07.2005

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/friday.htm

THE DOW REPORT
A Long-Term Look at the CRB and Silver

Every market is comprised of cycles of various durations. Each of these cycles is constantly ebbing and flowing with one another much like the currents, the tide, the waves and ripples in the ocean. Sometimes these different cycles are moving together and sometimes they move in opposition. In cycles analysis the trend is defined as the direction of the next larger cycle. If the tide is going out, it does not matter that the smaller degree movements are moving in opposition to the tide. The trend is set by the tide. The same is true for the markets. What we try to do is identify changes in the direction of the tide. This is not a science, but we can use the behavior of previous cycles to develop expectations for the future. These expectations are developed based on the quantitative data of previous cycles that can then be applied to the present in an effort to make educated assessments about the present.

Today, I want to start with a look at the long-term cycle in the CRB known as the 3-year cycle. The direction of this cycle is like the tide. When it is coming in, commodity prices rise as the general direction is up in spite of the shorter-term cyclical movements, which could be moving down. When the tide turns and the 3-year cycle tops, the general direction is then down and prices will move lower from that point until low tide is reached. No amount of reasoning under the sun will change this naturally occurring phenomenon as the cycle will have its way. The only question might be just how high or how low the tide may be.

Below is a monthly chart of the CRB. You can see that I have marked each one of the 3-year cycle lows. Like any other cycle, this cycle can contract or expand, but it has historically averaged 38.4 months in duration from low to low. This cycle is now in its 39th month. Without boring you with the details, I will tell you that all of the preliminary evidence strongly suggests that this cycle has topped. If so, the tide is beginning to go out and it will then pull commodity prices down with it. The confirmation of this tidal shift will come in the first quarter of 2005. If the CRB doesn’t better its recent high of 291.50 AND if it moves below last month’s low of 274.25 during the first quarter of 2005, we will have cyclical confirmation of this tidal change.

It is currently my belief that we will see this confirmation. Additionally, evidence suggests that the break seen last year in grains and lumber were the beginning of this tidal shift. This weakness has since moved into the oil markets and the metals complex.

more...

[RawMaterials]

3. wonder what will be the earthquake that creates the

economic tsunami of currency flowing back into our country?

[54anickel]

2. Game Over? (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050107-fri.html#anchor0

The unraveling of the Asset Economy could well be at hand. America’s Federal Reserve has finally woken up to the perils of the risk culture that its reckless accommodation has spawned. The Fed has sounded simultaneous alarms on two fronts -- inflation and excesses in asset markets. Such explicit warnings from the US monetary authority are rare and should be taken seriously. This has important implications for the interest rate outlook, as well as for the asset-dependent US economy.

As many have already noted, the recently-released minutes of the December 14, 2004 Federal Reserve policy meeting were an eye-opener. The tone of the discussion was far more important than the policy action itself -- a fifth 25 basis point rate hike in the past five months. While the stilted language of the policy action, itself, made reference to balanced risks with respect to growth and inflation, the debate was laced with a very different distribution of concerns. The Fed made special note of inflation risks, citing recent weakness in the dollar, still-elevated oil prices, a cyclical slowing of productivity, and signs of deteriorating inflationary implications signaled in the TIPS market. At the same time, the Fed’s newfound concerns over “excessive risk taking” focused on unusually narrow credit spreads, a notable pick-up in corporate finance activity (both IPOs and M&A deals), and what the policy minutes referred to as “anecdotal reports” of excess speculation in residential property markets. Better late than never, I guess.

Rarely does the US central bank cast aside the rhetorical shackles of Fedspeak and express its concerns with such candor and fervor. Two earlier instances in the recent past stand out as intriguing precedents -- late 1993 and early 2000. In the second half of 1993, the Fed warned repeatedly of excess speculation in the bond market and the coming normalization of monetary policy. Market participants all but ignored the warnings until the Fed finally delivered in the form of a 300 bp rate hike over a 12-month time-frame beginning in February 1994. The result was the worst year of performance in modern bond market history. A similar, albeit belated, warning was sounded in early 2000, when the stock market was still bubbling to excess. At the time, the Fed couched its concerns in a framework that worried about potential imbalances between the excesses in demand and the growth in potential supply. But the 100 bp of monetary tightening in the first half of 2000 was more than enough for the equity bubble and the excess demand growth it spawned. In my view, the minutes of the December 2004 FOMC meeting follow these earlier precedents quite closely -- especially that of 1993-94. The Federal Reserve is sending a clear warning to speculators that should not be ignored.

And yet, as was precisely the case in the immediate aftermath of the two earlier warnings, an ominous persistence of denial is evident today. Financial markets have barely flinched in response to this sea-change in Fed risk assessment. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are up only about 7 basis points. Moreover, the bubble in risk products remains very much intact: While emerging market-debt spreads have widened by 9 bps, they remain extraordinarily tight by historical standards; the same can be said for investment-grade corporate spreads, which haven’t budged at an unusually low 94 bps; moreover, spreads on already tight high-yield debt have actually narrowed a bit in the immediate aftermath of the release of the FOMC minutes. A similar pattern is evident for bank credit spreads and equity market volatility -- a persistence of minimal risk aversion. And the real estate market remains red-hot, riding a national home-price inflation wave that hit 13% y-o-y in 3Q04, with double-digit appreciation in 25 states plus the District of Columbia.

more...

[54anickel]

4. Issues 2005

Last entry on the page

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

snip>

The U.S. Credit system and asset markets are the focal point of my analysis. Only restraint in Credit creation and the termination of asset Bubbles will initiate the required “rebalancing” – domestic as well as global. Until asset and speculative Bubbles burst, the dysfunctional U.S. financial sector will maintain its dangerous fixation on asset-based lending and interest-rate arbitrage. At this point, only a crisis will force the curtailment of over-consumption and the misallocation of resources. And rather than viewing the dollar’s fall as an encouraging development, from a Credit Bubble perspective, it is exactly what one would expect to coincide with the “blow off” period of Credit and liquidity excess.

When I reflect back upon 2004 through my analytical framework, I see Reflation dangerously transformed into Gross Over-liquefication, on a global scale never before experienced. What do I mean by this? Ultra-accommodative Fed policies that reached a crescendo in late 2002 nurtured blow-off excesses throughout U.S. mortgage and securities finance – Bubble at The Core. This dynamic set in motion an all-encompassing liquidity free-for-all domestically and globally, creating Myriad Bubbles all along The Periphery. From subprime, junk bonds and virtually all securities; to hedge funds, REITs and M&A; to energy, commodities and essentially all hard assets; to emerging debt and equity markets, cheap finance was abundant in virtually every nook and cranny across the globe.

I believe this is very pertinent analysis with respect to contemplating where and how we proceed from 2004. While some may view the weaker dollar and stronger global growth as factors reducing systemic imbalances and risk, I fear the exact opposite: An historic Bubble has gone to only more dangerous and endemic extremes. Indeed, Macro Credit/Bubble analysis leads me to place the potential for financial crisis at the very top of Issues 2005. Last year it was incumbent upon the Fed to demonstrate resolve by tightening financial conditions and repressing burgeoning excess – retraining reflation from its proclivity to run out of control. Once again, the Fed has erred on the side of upholding excess, which reinforced already strong inflationary biases throughout the U.S. and global securities markets. Systems have become only more dependent on abundant Credit and liquidity.

There are many that view easy Credit and teeming liquidity as part and parcel to the New Paradigm, engendered by contemporary finance coupled with a technology-induced productivity revolution. And there is these days more talk of a secular decline in financial market volatility. Such a view has been emboldened by 2004’s collapse in Credit and risk spreads, as well as the bond market’s (and general financial markets’) resiliency in the face of a sinking dollar. This is a hook – an analytical trap.

From my analytical perspective, the notion of a secular decline in financial volatility is the ultimate in Analytical Irrational Exuberance. It is “secular” only so long as Credit Bubble and liquidity excesses are sustained; as long as inflated asset prices continue inflating. Indeed, the collapse in risk spreads is one critical manifestation of Gross Systemic Over-Liquefication. And this liquidity emanates directly from profligate lending throughout mortgage finance, unprecedented securities leveraging, and unparalleled expansion of central bank holdings of U.S. securities. Indeed, The Great Analytical Paradox of 2004 was the collapse in risk premiums concurrent with heightened Monetary Disorder. This aberration is not sustainable.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Three cheers for good ideas

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

Or how about the idea that corporate executives who earn gigantic bonuses based on reported financial results should give that money back if it’s later learned that the results were bogus? Now why didn’t I think of that? A person who takes money under false pretenses should actually return it. Brilliant!

This idea is so ground breaking that it has its own name – the “claw back” provision, which sounds more like an exemption from assault charges because someone took your purse, than the reversal of unearned earnings. A better name might be the “common sense” provision or the “logical rectification” clause, or maybe the “you’ve got to be kidding me, we just now figured this out?” provision.

Evidently, in financial circles, “claw back” isn’t something that just happens. That’s why some corporate boards have wised up and placed such language in executive contracts; something like, “If you steal money, you don’t get to buy another house in Palm Beach, you have to give it back.”

Innovative.

At least one shareholder of Computer Associates thought that it made perfect sense to ask big shots to return bonus money based on finagled numbers. Last year, CA said that it improperly reported some $2 billion in sales, and curiously, the CEO’s $3.2 million bonus and 80,000 share gift were based on those results. According to Crain’s New York Business, Amalgamated Bank, which owned 250,000 shares of Computer Associates, got the idea that the big boss should forfeit the bonus. So Amalgamated put forth a shareholder resolution spelling out their idea. A lawyer for Amalgamated Bank tried to explain this newfangled concept this way: “If you didn’t earn the money, you shouldn’t keep it.”

Alas, Amalgamated was ahead of its time and the resolution did not pass. However, the idea is catching on because in August, Nortel said it would try to retrieve $10 million in bonus bucks the company dished out based on inaccurate financials. And, last week, we learned that Rep. Richard Baker wrote a letter to Fannie Mae’s regulators, requesting that, in the wake of the $9 billion restatement, they claw back any bonuses that may have been based on “deeply flawed earnings statements.”

more...

[54anickel]

6. Hedge Funds: Healthy Risk

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=38955

snip>

We could go on listing the potential hazards of the hedge fund industry (high fees, inflated returns, etc.) but the fact is, the fire of “one of the hottest investment vehicles” is only getting hotter.

And it’s not just the wealthy (investing in hedge funds typically requires a minimum net worth of $1 million) who are hopping in. The Wall Street Journal piece reveals: “Hedge fund investors include one in five pension funds,” and many large institutions such as JP Morgan.

In the words of one chief strategist:
“The low hanging fruit has been picked over by swarming hedge fund investor locusts.”

Think about it: If the hedge fund “fruit” turns out to be rotten, who will suffer the most now? The already-wealthy investor, OR the average JOE/JANE who entrusted their children’s educational future, savings, mortgage, and retirement in the pension funds and banks that also ate of that fruit?

more...

[54anickel]

7. PART 2: The center of the doughnut (Follow up to article from last

week's - Why the emperor has no clothes)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA07Dj01.html

All Ponzi schemes build a financial pyramid. Many who pay into them also live in a financial world themselves, but others need to derive their in-payment through earnings from production in the real world. In today's world of financial transactions that every day are a hundredfold more than all payments for real goods and services put together, the financial ones put the real ones into the shadow behind their brilliance.

Moreover, to oversimplify a very complex matter into more intelligible layperson's language, options, derivatives, swaps and other recent financial instruments have been ever much further compounding already compounded interest on the real properties in which their stake and debts are based, which has contributed to the spectacular growth of this financial world. Nonetheless, the financial pyramid that we see in all its splendor and brilliance, especially in its center at Uncle Sam's home, still sits on top of a real-world producer-merchant-consumer base, even if the financial one also provides credit for these real-world transactions.

Now, what if we look at the world as a doughnut, analogous to so many cities in the US rust belt. The center is derelict and hollowed out as production and consumption have moved to the surrounding suburbs (in automobile capital Detroit, the windows of the principal department store Hudson's have been boarded up for years, even as the city has built an expensive "Renaissance Center" to re-gentrify the center, a process that has "succeeded" in some other cities). General Motors' derelict Flint, Michigan, gave us Michael Moore, who featured it in Roger and Me (a reference to GM chief executive officer Roger Smith). We might look at the entire world in doughnut terms, with the whole of Uncle Sam in the empty hole in the middle that produces almost nothing it can sell abroad. The main exceptions are agricultural goods and military hardware that are heavily subsidized by the US government from its taxpayers and its dollar-printing press, and even so Uncle Sam runs a US$600-billion-plus budget deficit.

Should the dollar crash ...
The big difference in this US doughnut is that both the budget deficit and the $600-billion-plus trade deficit are financed by foreigners, as we have seen. Uncle Sam would exclude most of them as persons, but gladly receives the real goods they produce. As world consumer of last resort, as already suggested, Uncle Sam performs this important function in the present global political economic division of labor: everybody else produces and needs to export, and Uncle Sam consumes and needs to import. The crash of the dollar would (will?) crumble this entire world-embracing and -organizing political economic doughnut and throw hundreds of millions of people, not to mention zillions of dollars and their owners, into turmoil, with unforeseen and perhaps unforeseeable consequences.

Many people, high and low on the world totem pole, have a big stake in avoiding that, even if it requires continuing to blow an empty Uncle Sam up like a balloon. Or to refer to a well-know metaphor, to continue to pretend that the emperor with no clothes is dressed up. That still includes China, for which a financial showdown with Uncle Sam would be a blessing in disguise: it would oblige China to change its political economic course, and instead of giving its goods away for free to Uncle Sam, to turn production and consumption inward to its poor interior and outward to its neighbors in East Asia, all of which it could and should be doing already. (The latter China has recently begun to do, but not yet the former.)

more...

[54anickel]

8. Forecast 2005: The See-Saw Economy

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mauldin/mauldin010805.html

snip>

In the 90's, private foreign investors lined up around the corner to buy our stocks and invest in America. Today, the private foreign flow is inconsequential. There is little or no foreign investor confidence in the US. Indeed, look at the very astute Bill Gross's latest column from Pimco. He is not exactly a raging bull on US securities, suggesting foreign bonds as among his favorite investments. This is from a conservative US bond guy!

Foreign central bank purchases of US Treasuries in order to maintain a competitive currency valuation to attract the US consumer is not a sign of strength. It is a sign of desperate foreign central banks trying to maintain their economies which are dependent upon US consumers. They KNOW they are going to get hosed on their dollar holdings, but feel they have no choice.

snip>

The Asian organization SEATO, composed of ten major Southeast Asian countries, basically announced such a basket of currency reserves policy when they declared last quarter that they would work toward a free trade zone including China. It would be the largest such zone in the world. Part of the deal would be to value their reserves in a basket of currencies of their trading partners, lessening their dependence on the dollar.

snip>

That is not good for bonds, and it is not a good environment for credit spreads. (A credit spread is the difference between a type of bond, like a corporate or high yield bond, and the corresponding government bond.) Credit spreads are "tight" now, which means the difference between a government bond and other bonds is historically very low. And by tight, I mean REALLY tight. There is no room, or very little, to get any tighter.

How did we get here? Because interest rates are so low, investors looked for any place to get higher yields. And as they poured into high yield bonds, corporate bonds, and emerging market debt, the yield on those bonds relative to government debt has come down, making it a fairly risky proposition if you are playing the spread game.

The Fed is going to continue to raise rates until the economy shows signs of trouble. While the Fed in the past has been willing to cause a recession, I do not think this Fed will do so. They are on the See-Saw between worrying about inflation and creating another speculative economy with interest rates too low and the concern that raising rates too much will squeeze the growth out of an economy that has grown addicted to, if not fat upon, - maybe even dependent upon - low interest rates.
One Caveat: if long term rates do not rise, the Fed will stop sooner than 4%. They will not create an inverted yield curve on their own.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Oil Advances to 6-Week High as Storms Disrupt North Sea Output

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aA175nQpC0IM&refer=top_world_news

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil jumped to its highest in almost six weeks in London after stormy weather forced Royal Dutch/Shell Group to halt output at a North Sea field, bringing Norway's idled production to 12 percent for a fourth day.

Shell stopped pumping the equivalent of 140,000 barrels of oil a day at the Draugen field off central Norway on Jan. 7 because of bad weather and strong winds are preventing repairs to a loading hose. OPEC may on Jan. 30 pledge to reduce output further after agreeing to pump less starting this month as winter consumption peaks in the Northern Hemisphere.

``The market has reversed its psychology and now, rather than being completely complacent about supplies, it's worried that deliveries to the U.S. might decline just as the weather gets colder,'' said Craig Pennington, head energy analyst at Schroders Plc in London.

Brent crude for February settlement rose as much as 1.7 percent to $43.92 a barrel, its highest since Dec. 1, and was up 52 cents at $43.70 at 12:16 p.m. on London's International Petroleum Exchange. Crude for February delivery climbed 54 cents to 45.97 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 17 percent from its $55.67 October record.

The price in New York may reach $48 should it surpass the high of $46.10 on Jan. 7, said Kevin Blemkin, a broker at Man Financial in London.

more...

[54anickel]

81. Oil Climbs to 6-Week High, Nears $47 (Iraq sabotage now)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050110/markets_oil_2.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed to a six-week high near $47 a barrel on Monday after sabotage at Iraqi oil facilities, news of Saudi Arabian supply tightening, and on the risk of a cold spell in the United States.

snip>

Prices rose as Iraqi oil officials said that sabotage ahead of the country's January 30 elections had paralyzed oil operations in the north of the country, forcing a suspension in refining while export flows remained idle.

"The Iraqi election and possibility of oil facility sabotage, approaching refinery maintenance/turnaround and the possibility the upcoming OPEC meeting will endorse further cuts have rallied the market," said brokers Refco in a report.

Buying interest sharpened after news that Saudi Arabia had cut crude allocations to major oil companies with global refining systems in February compared to January.

Trade sources told Reuters on Monday that the cuts were smaller than those made in January from December, but declined to give precise numbers.

more...

[UpInArms]

99. Scenarios that could shake energy markets

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4EE2887E%2DD38E%2D4ED2%2D88F4%2D2A0E1BBB3067%7D&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (CBS.MW) - Anticipating another volatile year in the energy sector, analysts at Raymond James have stitched together a 10-point list of possible surprises that could rattle oil and gas markets in 2005 and boost or weigh on stocks.

"These are events that the market's conventional wisdom considers highly unlikely," wrote Marshall Adkins, Raymond James managing director for energy equity research, in a note to clients. He added that his firm agrees there is a low probability of the events occurring.

"However, we also think that the market is significantly underestimating the likelihood of the events listed below."

Bullish

Winter-ending gas storage falls below 1 trillion cubic feet - without abnormally cold weather.

A large petroleum-exporting country stops using the dollar to price oil contracts.

Russian oil production stops growing - or even declines.

An integrated oil company buys an exploration and production company for its people, not its assets.

Chinese oil demand grows more than expected.

There is a major disruption of oil supply from OPEC.

<snip>

Bearish

An integrated oil company makes a large investment in Iraq.

Mexico's national oil company, Pemex, lays off a large number of rigs.

The global economy melts down, in part due to high commodity prices.

Nuclear power re-emerges on a global scale.

...more...

[54anickel]

114. WTF kinda double-speak is that?

"These are events that the market's conventional wisdom considers highly unlikely," ...

"... we also think that the market is significantly underestimating the likelihood of the events listed below."


I'm sorry, but not one of those things listed looks at that improbable to me.

Gotta love this quote:

"A major attack against the Ras Tanura export complex on the Saudi coast could halt well over 3 million barrels per day of exports for many weeks," he said.

Adkins said that while no country has made a move to stop using the dollar to price oil contracts, it could happen in 2005.

"We don't believe that Russia or Saudi Arabia will do it anytime soon, given their desire to maintain good relations with Washington," he said. "On the other hand, Iran and Venezuela do not have much to lose in terms of diplomacy; they could afford to make a political statement."

[UpInArms]

116. thanks 54anickel

I thought it was just me who sat shaking my head at what I consider probable and what they say are longshots.

:hi:

[54anickel]

10. Central banks count the cost of weak dollar

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=2&u=/afp/20050110/bs_afp/eueurozoneecbbankeconomyforexeuroresults_050110125727

FRANKFURT (AFP) - The weak dollar appears to be tearing holes in the annual accounts of central banks both in Europe and elsewhere around the world, with many banks considering reducing their official holdings in the US greenback.

The German business daily Handelsblatt reported that the European Central Bank, which booked a 2003 loss of 477 million euros (625 million dollars), saw its net loss widen to at least one billion euros last year as a result of the weak dollar.

The newspaper did not reveal its sources and said that the guardian of the euro had refused to comment on the information.

But already last week, the Bundesbank had conceded that press reports were "more or less accurate" when they claimed that the German central bank's annual profit had been whittled down to next to nothing as a result of the sharp fall in the value of the dollar.

Already in 2003, the Bundesbank saw its profit fall to just 248 million euros in 2003, its lowest level in 17 years as a result of the weak dollar.

more...

Fish wrap, anyone?

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.29 Change -0.32 (-0.38%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1105351154-9e32d306-14919

Forex - Dollar supported by Snow comments

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remained near a seven-week high against the euro in the wake of comments from US Treasury Secretary John Snow that the administration will back its so-called strong dollar policy with sustained action on the budget deficit

In addition, analysts said the dollar continues to be supported by the relative strength of the US economy against the euro zone

"Both cyclical and structural factors appear to be slowly evolving in the dollar's favour," said Steve Pearson, currency strategist at HBOS

<snip>

The dollar has been in the doldrums in recent months as concerns over the US' twin deficits combined with talk that central banks around the world are reviewing the structure of their currency reserves away from the US currency

There is also a general feeling that the US administration is following a policy of benign neglect, meaning it wants the dollar to fall to help improve the current account imbalance. However, comments from the US Treasury Secretary at the weekend that the administration wants to "do things to sustain the strength of the currency" gave an additional boost to the dollar despite widespread scepticism

"The market has rarely been fussed by comments from Snow, in particular his considered hollow comments on the strong dollar policy, and the subsequent dollar gains appear to have owed more to a continuation of recent corrective dollar strength than any new impetus," said Commerzbank Securities' Karen Jones

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100300/content.asp?menu=review&dia=1012005

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

The U.S. dollar has finally bottomed and is turning up for its first sustained oversold rally after suffering a major beat-down in 2004. The early part of 2005 is shaping up to be quite favorable for the dollar as the technical and psychological backdrop for the buck clearly show.

A deluge of super bearish dollar headlines filled the financial press each day in the final weeks and months of 2004, so much so that it became a moot point to even bother clipping them out for our "fear collage." Talk about going to the extreme! When was the last time you saw such extreme pessimism in the financial markets as we saw in the dollar in the second half of 2004? You'll be hard pressed to come up with any recent comparisons.

On my office bulletin board I have tacked up in recent weeks the absolute stand-out, dollar-related headlines that I feel "steal the show" in terms of super bearish sentiment. Here are some of them: "The world must adjust to the dollar's inevitable fall," "Sickly dollar dives against euro," "Dollar likely to fall further," "Only dollar weakness is assured...", "Greenback blues," and my personal favorite: "Greenback's slide seen as a one-way bet." Anytime the press tells you that anything in the market is a "one-way bet" you can bet they are going to be wrong!

...more...

Hmmmm.... I wonder how much that column cost the taxpayers? :eyes:

Only one report today:

Jan 10 10:00 AM
Wholesale Inventories Nov
report -
briefing.com 0.7%
market 0.7%
last report 1.1%
revised -

I'm predicting some more "surprised" economists - that credit report last week indicates that the consumers just weren't consuming!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

26. Dollar's week-long rally fades

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE9557A46%2D9598%2D4479%2D8D23%2DD91A253DE6AC%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The dollar fell Monday as investors cashed in on a rally that drove the U.S. currency to its highest in several weeks.

The dollar was down 0.4 percent against Europe's common currency in morning U.S. trade; one euro was worth $1.3103.

The greenback fell 0.5 percent compared to Friday, at 104.34 yen.

The dollar hit multiweek highs on Friday after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said the Bush administration continues to back a strong U.S. dollar and recognizes that the U.S. budget deficit needs to shrink.

"The government's interest payments to foreign debt holders have exacerbated the U.S.'s gaping current account deficit, a driving force in the dollar's decline in 2004," said Alex Beuzelin, senior market analyst with Ruesch International.

"Traders also remain nervous ahead of Wednesday's key November U.S. trade balance numbers," said Beuzelin. "A disappointing report could shift the market's focus back onto the structural imbalances in America's economy and weigh on dollar sentiment."

...more...

[54anickel]

28. Awww, so soon?...n/t

[UpInArms]

79. seems some are actually asking a few questions

about SnowJob's comments

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20050110-000334-0956

excerpt:

Some market watchers saw Mr. Snow's comments as a subtle change in policy, since most analysts assumed last year that the policy was largely rhetorical and that the administration was secretly condoning a falling dollar.

Overall, market participants are still scratching their heads as to whether Mr. Snow's comments Friday actually marked a change in policy. The fact that Mr. Snow didn't roll out his traditional line Friday that markets should set exchange rates was seized (by) analysts as some sort of nuanced change.

Though the deeper motivation behind Mr. Snow's comments are still a bit unclear, they have received some positive feedback from Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. Mr. Trichet said Monday he appreciated Mr. Snow's comments regarding deficits and the U.S. dollar.

"Global observers have taken that very seriously, and we do too," Mr. Trichet said at a press conference after a meeting of central bankers from the Group of 10 leading industrial nations and emerging market countries.

Mr. Trichet's comment suggests that, after a period of moaning and finger-pointing between officials in Europe and the U.S., there may now be some growing sense of coordination among policy-makers. It wasn't lost on markets that the post-G10 statement was that famous point last year at which Mr. Trichet first described the dollar's decline as "brutal."

...more...

[54anickel]

84. Hmmm, did that little free-fall strike a bit of terror into Snowjob's

heart?

"STRONG DOLLAR, STRONG DOLLAR!!! It's up to the markets!"
Pssst, Trichet - let's talk.

[54anickel]

12. World economic conference putting focus on US deficits

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2005/01/10/world_economic_conference_putting_focus_on_us_deficits/

BASEL, Switzerland -- Central bankers, joined by commercial counterparts and financial regulators from around the globe, yesterday discussed ways to ensure smooth economic growth amid worries over widening US deficits.

The two-day meeting examines cooperation among bankers and watchdogs as cross-border ties strengthen, meaning that sparks in one corner of the globe could provoke fire in another.

"The first topic was the world economy and its implications for financial institutions," said Hirofumi Gomi, head of Japan's watchdog Financial Services Agency.

For the global economy, signs are emerging the expansion is losing steam after a robust 2004. Japan's recovery is looking shaky, Britain is slowing, and domestic demand has failed to revive in the euro zone
This leaves the United States as the biggest driver of the world economy, along with Asia. Uh-oh! :hurts:

more...

[UpInArms]

13. PGE suitor's intentions: big profits

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/front_page/1105275492236240.xml

Texas Pacific Group on Saturday released the material it had submitted in secret to Oregon regulators and it made explicit what has long been understood: The company expects to earn a handsome profit from its purchase of Portland General Electric.

Senior company officials said in interviews that the deal has proved far more politically contentious than they had anticipated. But the documents make clear why the Texas investment firm is nonetheless pushing to persuade the Oregon Public Utility Commission to approve the sale.

One internal analysis deemed reasonable by senior company officials predicted Texas Pacific and its co-investors could earn more than $800 million in five years, a 20 percent rate of return on their initial investment.

Kelvin Davis, a Texas Pacific partner, said the company decided to release the confidential documents to dispel accusations that it had misled the public about its intentions. The documents, which were drawn up by the firm's number crunchers and consultants before the company made its bid, are forecasts of how the investment might perform under different scenarios, from job cuts to droughts.

<snip>

Customers question how it is in the best interest of Oregonians to sell off the state's largest utility to another Texas company that could earn $800 million by reselling the utility.

"Why shouldn't the customers get to participate in some of that windfall?" said Ken Canon, executive director of the Industrial Customers of Northwest Utilities.

...more...

[Pegleg Thd]

49. My question would be

is PGE still involved with the Trojan plant at Rainer, Oregon? Isn't it about due for demolition or refitting? Either will be costly!! I lived in the Portland area for 50 years. Left there in 1992.

[UpInArms]

57. here's all I could dig up about that plant

http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/news/1999/99-272.html

excerpt:

The Trojan Nuclear Plant began commercial operation in May 1976 and was shut down permanently in January of 1993. The plant currently is being dismantled and decontaminated. The reactor vessel, which represented 99.9 percent of the remaining radioactive material, excluding the spent fuel, was removed from the site in August. Spent fuel is expected to be stored in a dry cask storage facility above ground at the site until a permanent waste repository is available.

[54anickel]

14. World On Brink Of Ruin (Lots of Greenspin links and digs)

http://www.forbes.com/business/2005/01/07/cx_da_0107topnews.html

NEW YORK - Alan Greenspan, that Matador of the Money Supply, the esteemed Impresario of Interest Rates, has suffered precious few slings or arrows over his many years as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Even the White House has had to offer its critiques off the record for fear of roiling the markets or upsetting the chairman's Elvis-in-Vegas-like following. So when the chief economist of one of the world's most prestigious banks calls Greenspan a bum, that's a big deal.

And yesterday it happened. Stephen Roach, the chief economist for Morgan Stanley & Co. (nyse: MWD - news - people ), one of the most powerful investment banks and one of the 50 largest companies in the world, says Greenspan has "driven the world to the economic brink."

Writing in an upcoming issue of Foreign Policy, Roach says that when Greenspan steps down as chairman of the Federal Reserve next year, he will leave behind a record foreign deficit and a generation of Americans with little savings and mountains of debt. Americans, Roach says, are far too dependent on the value of their assets, especially their homes, rather than on income-based savings; they are running a huge current-account deficit; and much of the resulting debt is now held by foreign countries, especially in Asia, which permits low interest rates and entices Americans into more debt.

The "economic brink" line is from the headline of a press release sent by Foreign Policy. In an interview this morning, Roach said, "That's a little extreme." He does admit the nation has prospered on Greenspan's watch. Still, he does not disavow the haymakers he directs at the chairman's chin.

"This is no way to run the global economy," Roach says. So far, the Fed has bucked the odds, Roach adds. But the longer the situation exists, the more chance there is that it will spell danger for the United States and the world.

Roach lays the blame for the peril at Greenspan's door. But first he takes out after his outsized reputation.....

more...

[UpInArms]

17. thank you 54anickel for posting this most wonderful

and honest critique of this piece of human refuse (Meanspin)

here's a bit more from your link:

Greenspan is not responsible for defeating inflation in the 1980s; Paul Volcker, his "tough and courageous predecessor," deserves more of the credit, Roach says. Greenspan's monetary policy deserves some accolades for the 1990s boom, but former President Bill Clinton's fiscal policy and other factors were equally responsible, Roach says. Greenspan may deserve some praise for softening the recession that followed the stock market meltdown, Roach concedes, but the chairman's cure may result in "bigger problems down the road" and "the biggest bubble of all: residential property."

Yes, we do know that fiscal policy sets the pallette for exactly what will happen to our economy.

[54anickel]

19. Heh-heh, I was hoping you'd point that paragraph out...

I was already over the 4-5 paragraph limit, but it was such a great intro to the rest of the article.

Thanks!

[UpInArms]

15. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Expectations for a relatively flat to lower start for the cash market remain intact... Reports suggest that Comcast (CMCSA) will announce plans for a major rollout of phone service over cable lines... Nokia (NOK) could also be in focus after it was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and upped to Outperform from Neutral by CSFB... Other notable analyst actions include an upgrade on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Reduce at UBS and a Merrill Lynch upgrade on Axa SA (AXA) to Buy from Neutral

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Still shaping up to be a modestly lower open for the indices following a week of consolidation that left the market averages with declines of 1.7-4.0%... Meanwhile, reports suggest that accounting scandals at Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have now improved the possibility for legislation to toughen oversight this year... In overseas markets, Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday while European markets have been under pressure most of the session

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market... A lack of earnings and economic data this morning along with a 1% surge in crude oil prices ($45.93/bbl +$0.50), after Royal Dutch/Shell Group was forced to halt output at a North Sea field due to bad weather, has contributed to the subdued action...

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to short covering and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of last week's losses but remains below the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1581.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be near. If March extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 1547.86 is the next likely downside target. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 1.00 pt. at 1568.50 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline but remains above the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1181.58. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be near. If March extends last week's decline, the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1181.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1200.33 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. The March S&P 500 Index was up 1.10 pts. at 1187.40 as of 5:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

16. Foreign investors reduce U.S. share (in real estate)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-re-update9.6jan09,1,6680044.story?coll=la-headlines-business

As the "degree of difficulty" in finding attractive real estate investment opportunities increases, foreign investors are losing their appetite for U.S. real estate, according to a survey of the members of the Assn. of Foreign Investors in Real Estate.

While overall spending will increase both globally and in the U.S., respondents said they would reduce the U.S. percentage of their total global real estate acquisitions from 71% in 2004 to 55% in 2005 and invest a greater percentage of their portfolios in an ever-widening global arena that includes Japan, Eastern Europe and Australia.

Almost 60% of respondents surveyed said it had become "very difficult" to find attractive real estate opportunities in the U.S., compared with 38% in 2003 and 32% in 2002.

The U.S. continued as the No. 1 country for stable and secure real estate investments.

bit more...

[54anickel]

18. Confusions about Social Security (Krugman pdf file)

I came across this link over the week-end in someone's post within a thread. Sorry, I don't remember who the original poster was, but I do want to thank them for it.

http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1048&context=ev

Summary
There is a lot of confusion in the debate over Social Security privatization, much of it deliberate. This essay discusses the meaning of the trust fund, which privatizers declare either real or fictional at their convenience; the likely rate of return on private accounts, which has been greatly overstated; and the (ir)relevance of putative reductions in far future liabilities.

Introduction
Since the Bush administration has put Social Security privatization at the top of the agenda, I’ll be writing a lot about the subject in my New York Times column over the next few months. But it’s hard to do the subject justice in a series of 700-word snippets. So I thought it might be helpful to lay out the situation as I see it in an integrated piece.

There are three main points of confusion in the Social Security debate (confusion that is deliberately created, for the most part, but never mind that for now). These are:

• The meaning of the trust fund: in order to create a sense of crisis,
proponents of privatization consider the trust fund either real or fictional, depending on what is convenient

• The rate of return that can be expected on private accounts: privatizers claim that there is a huge free lunch from the creation of these accounts, a free lunch that is based on very dubious claims about future stock returns

• How to think about implicit liabilities in the far future: privatizers brush aside the huge negative fiscal consequences of their plans in the short run, claiming that reductions in promised payments many decades in the future are an adequate offset

Without further ado, let me address each confusion in turn.

more...

[UpInArms]

20. Krugman is the absolute best

at understanding and explaining:

The lesser problem is that if you say that there is no link between the payroll tax and future Social Security benefits — which is what denying the reality of the trust fund amounts to — then Greenspan and company pulled a fast one back in the 1980s: they sold a regressive tax switch, raising taxes on workers while cutting them on the wealthy, on false pretenses. More broadly, we’re breaking a major promise if we now, after 20 years of high payroll taxes to pay for Social Security’s future, declare that it was all a little joke on the public.

The bigger problem for those who want to see a crisis in Social Security’s future is this: if Social Security is just part of the federal budget, with no budget or trust fund of its own, then, well, it’s just part of the federal budget: there can’t be a Social Security crisis. All you can have is a general budget crisis. Rising Social Security benefit payments might be one reason for that crisis, but it’s hard to make the case that it will be central.

But those who insist that we face a Social Security crisis want to have it both ways. Having invoked the concept of a unified budget to reject the existence of a trust fund, they refuse to accept the implications of that unified budget going forward. Instead, having changed the rules to make the trust fund meaningless, they want to change the rules back around 15 years from now: today, when the payroll tax takes in more revenue than SS benefits, they say that’s meaningless, but when – in 2018 or later – benefits start to exceed the payroll tax, why, that’s a crisis. Huh?

I don’t know why this contradiction is so hard to understand, except to echo Upton Sinclair: it’s hard to get a man to understand something when his salary (or, in the current situation, his membership in the political club) depends on his not understanding it. But let me try this one more time, by asking the following: What happens in 2018 or whenever, when benefits payments exceed payroll tax revenues?

The answer, very clearly, is nothing.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. 9:42 EST markets are open

Dow 10,588.07 -15.89 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,087.25 -1.36 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,185.15 -1.04 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 42.61 -0.24 (-0.56%)

NYSE Volume 78,201,000
Nasdaq Volume 202,863,000

[UpInArms]

29. a side of blather

9:40AM: With the market's focus shifting to upcoming Q4 earnings reports, and none of note out this morning, the market has found little to get excited about in the early going as the indices open on a slightly lower note... While there will be 9 S&P constituents reporting quarterly results this week, the first - Dow component Alcoa (AA 30.51 -0.18) - won't release their Q4 (Dec) results until after the close tonight... In economic news, the Commerce Dept will release November Wholesales Inventories (consensus +0.7%) at 10:00 ET...

[54anickel]

22. Kohn: Openness Must Not Constrain Policy

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050109/economy_fed_1.html

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve must not let its commitment to gradually increase openness hamper its flexibility, Fed board Governor Donald Kohn said on Sunday, days after a policy committee minutes release roiled markets.

The Fed in December halved the lag between rate-setting sessions and the release of minutes from those meetings to three weeks from six, a step that has sharpened the focus of financial markets on the release.

"Benefits flow from a more timely release of a fuller, more nuanced explanation of why the policy decision was made than is possible in the announcement," Kohn said of the decision before the American Economic Association's annual meeting in Philadelphia.

"Reactions to the minutes may be sizable, as they were last Tuesday, but because the minutes do elaborate on the rationale for the committee's decision, these reactions should help markets anticipate policy actions and price assets in ways that foster economic stability," he added.

more...

[RawMaterials]

23. Market Update 9:48 EST

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Expectations for a relatively flat to lower start for the cash market remain intact... Reports suggest that Comcast (CMCSA) will announce plans for a major rollout of phone service over cable lines... Nokia (NOK) could also be in focus after it was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and upped to Outperform from Neutral by CSFB... Other notable analyst actions include an upgrade on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Reduce at UBS and a Merrill Lynch upgrade on Axa SA (AXA) to Buy from Neutral

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Still shaping up to be a modestly lower open for the indices following a week of consolidation that left the market averages with declines of 1.7-4.0%... Meanwhile, reports suggest that accounting scandals at Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have now improved the possibility for legislation to toughen oversight this year... In overseas markets, Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday while European markets have been under pressure most of the session

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market... A lack of earnings and economic data this morning along with a 1% surge in crude oil prices ($45.93/bbl +$0.50), after Royal Dutch/Shell Group was forced to halt output at a North Sea field due to bad weather, has contributed to the subdued action...

[54anickel]

24. More buyers are choosing ARMs (Arrrghhh! Thanks Greenspin - idjit!

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-re-update9.4jan09,1,5893610.story?coll=la-headlines-business

The portion of U.S. home buyers opting for adjustable-rate mortgages almost doubled in 2004 as surging home prices spurred more people to borrow at lower interest rates with shorter fixed periods.

The market share of home loans with adjustable rates, so-called ARMs, increased to 34% from 19% in 2003, according to Freddie Mac. It was the highest annual percentage since 1994, when the rate was 39%.

"This is an early-warning sign of potential dangers to come," said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania. "The surge in ARMs opens a larger percentage of the population to vulnerability to short-term rate increases."

That's it...no real analysis beyond that last paragraph offered.

[RawMaterials]

25. Wholesale Inventories due Nov 10:00 am proir 1.1%

The wholesale trade report includes sales and inventory statistics from the second stage of the manufacturing process. The sales figures say close to nothing about personal consumption and therefore do not move the market.

Wholesale inventories sometimes swing enough to change the aggregate inventory profile (aggregate inventory is the sum of inventory at the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail levels), which may affect the GDP outlook. In that event they can elicit a small market reaction. More often than not, however, this release goes unnoticed except by market economists.

More in-depth information is available from Briefing.com, including "live" intra-day market analysis of the U.S. stock and bond markets, technology stocks, economic releases, earnings reports, and day trading highlights.

[54anickel]

27. Wage growth is falling short for your average American

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/011005dnbusdimartino.2c6a.html

Some pundits say the pace of job growth is just right – not too hot and not too cold.

Maybe that's the way it looks if you're a Wall Street investment banker about to cash in on a fat bonus from a brisk year of wheeling and dealing.

Say, instead, you're an average schmo, maybe the person who serves Goldilocks as she jets around the country from one junket to another or rings up the deli when her supply of sparkling water runs low?

Let's just say for them, life ain't no fairy tale.

Dean Baker, co-director and economist at the Center for Economic & Policy Research in Washington, made the following observations after Friday's release of the December labor report:
"Recent data show wage growth to be slowing again, with the annual rate of increase over the last quarter being just 2.3 percent, compared to 2.7 percent over the last year. Both figures are well below the 3.5 percent rate of inflation over the last year."


{b]Ugly numbers

more...

[RawMaterials]

30. when are poeple going to start to notice whats going on

http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_10292004

[54anickel]

34. When it starts to effect them personally...n/t

[shrike]

77. But then it might be too late

[54anickel]

80. I believe that is the hope of the game owners...n/t

[RawMaterials]

31. U.S. Economy Will Probably Expand 3.6%, Survey Says (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aomlSEe9FWg4&refer=us

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy this year will expand 3.6 percent, unemployment will decline and more stable fuel prices will slow inflation, according to results from a monthly survey by Bloomberg News.

The 2005 growth forecast, unchanged from last month's poll, is lower than the estimated 4.4 percent rate for 2004, based on median predictions of 67 economists surveyed Jan. 3 to Jan. 7. The world's largest economy grew an average 3.1 percent from 1973 to 2003 and last year's rate was the strongest since 1999.

Consumers may moderate spending this year as Federal Reserve policy makers raise the benchmark interest rate, according to the survey. A decline in energy costs will help businesses keep the expansion going by hiring more workers and buying equipment, economists said.

Inflation Outlook

Consumer prices will probably rise an average 2.5 percent in 2005, the same as in the previous survey and less than the 3.4 percent projected annual pace for the quarter that just ended, the median forecasts show. Last year's 34 percent jump in crude oil prices isn't likely to be repeated, economists said.

The smaller increase in consumer prices conceals a bubbling of inflation pressures below the surface, when food and energy prices are excluded, economist Schlossberg said. ``The core rate will take up some of the slack this year,'' he said. ``We are seeing an improvement in pricing power.''

Central bankers raised the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans to 2.25 percent on Dec. 14 and restated a plan to carry out further increases at a ``measured'' pace to stem inflation. The Fed has raised the rate five times since June.

The median prediction for the Fed target rate at the end of this quarter is 2.75 percent. The forecast is up from 2.5 percent in last month's survey, and the median estimate for the full year remains at 3.5 percent.

Fed officials are trying to stay ahead of the wage gains that follow tighter employment conditions. The Labor Department reported Jan. 7 that employers added 157,000 workers to payrolls in December, capping the best year for job growth since 1999.


more...

[54anickel]

36. Bwahahaha! They've been talking about passing the baton from

consumers to businesses for two years now! What business is going to do a huge amount of spending during what looks to be an economic slowdown in an economy that is based on 2/3 consumer spending? If those tax breaks and historic low rates didn't get them going, what's the driving force now?

``We are looking for a rotation of strength toward business spending and an important part of that will be more employment,'' said Gary Schlossberg, a senior economist at Wells Capital Management in San Francisco, whose 2005 growth forecast matched the median estimate. ``Steadier energy costs mean we aren't going to get as much upward pressure on inflation as we did in '04.''

[RawMaterials]

38. my wife and i were joking about that this weekend

and how the businesses spending is going to have to increase when personal spending drops off, its just not going to happen. with the economy its always seamed to me like deja vu all over again.

[54anickel]

46. Perhaps because the Repugs keep doing the same thing expecting

a different outcome. BeezleBush is repeating Raygun's policies - difference is, Raygun tended to back down - Shrub has "resolve and determination". :puke: Pig-headed Idiot Son of an A$$hole

[UpInArms]

32. Oopsie! Nov Inventories up 1.1% (predicted 0.7%)

Surprise Surprise Surprise!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.41747-830818006&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Nov. wholesale inventories up 1.1%

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers increased 1.1 percent in November, outpacing the 0.7 percent rise in sales, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at a very low 1.15. The inventory-to-sales ratio for nondurables goods matched the record low of 0.85 set in October. Economists were expecting a sizable gain of 0.9 percent for wholesale inventories, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Inventories had increased 1.1 percent in October as well. Sales increased 1.6 percent in October.

10:00am 01/10/05 U.S. NOV. NONDURABLE INVENTORY RATIO RECORD LOW 0.85

10:00am 01/10/05 U.S. NOV. WHOLESALE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.15

10:00am 01/10/05 U.S. NOV. WHOLESALE SALES UP 0.7%

10:00am 01/10/05 U.S. NOV. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 1.1%

[RawMaterials]

35. Inventories/Sales Ratio

http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/mwts0411.html

[54anickel]

37. GACK!!! What's that flat-line at the end of the chart all about? Look at

the last time it "flat-lined"...Is that a premonition?

[UpInArms]

40. these numbers seem to be saying something

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $326.8 billion at the end of November, up 1.1 percent (+/-0.5%) from last month and were up 11.5 percent (+/-1.3%) from a year ago. The October preliminary estimate was virtually unchanged. End-of-month inventories of durable goods increased 1.3 percent (+/-0.5%) from October and were up 16.7 percent (+/-1.5%) from last November. Inventories of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software increased 4.0 percent from last month and inventories of metals and minerals, except petroleum increased 3.9 percent. End-of-month inventories of nondurable goods increased 0.9 percent (+/-0.7%) from October and were up 4.0 percent (+/-1.7%) compared to last November. Inventories of apparel, piece goods, and notions increased 2.7 percent from last month and inventories of beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverages increased 1.7 percent.

http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm

1929

Herbert Hoover becomes President. Hoover is a staunch individualist but not as committed to laissez-faire ideology as Coolidge.

More than half of all Americans are living below a minimum subsistence level.

Annual per-capita income is $750; for farm people, it is only $273.
Backlog of business inventories grows three times larger than the year before. Public consumption markedly down.

Freight carloads and manufacturing fall.

Automobile sales decline by a third in the nine months before the crash.

Construction down $2 billion since 1926.

<snip>

1930

By February, the Federal Reserve has cut the prime interest rate from 6 to 4 percent. Expands the money supply with a major purchase of U.S. securities. However, for the next year and a half, the Fed will add very little money to the shrinking economy. (At no time will it actually pull money out of the system.) Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon announces that the Fed will stand by as the market works itself out: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate real estate… values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wreck from less-competent people." (More)

...more...

[54anickel]

42. GULP!!! Could it happen again?

[UpInArms]

44. dunno - but it makes me wonder

No one knew how best to respond to the crisis. President Hoover believed the dole would do more harm than good and that local governments and private charities should provide relief to the unemployed and homeless. By 1931, some states began to offer aid to local communities. FDR, then governor of New York, worked with Harry Hopkins and Frances Perkins to begin a direct work relief program. This helped only a very few. By 1932, only 1/4 of unemployed families received any relief. In 1932, only 1.5 percent of all government funds were spent on relief and averaged about $1.67 per citizen. Cities, which had to bear the brunt of the relief efforts, teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. By 1932, Cook County (Chicago) was firing firemen, police, and teachers (who had not been paid in 8 months). Breadlines and Hoovervilles (homeless encampments) appeared across the nation.



http://www.nps.gov/elro/glossary/great-depression.htm

[54anickel]

48. Hmm, hence the push for "Faith-based" charities?...

President Hoover believed the dole would do more harm than good and that local governments and private charities should provide relief to the unemployed and homeless.

You'll need to accept the "mark of the fundies" (aka KKKristians) to provide food and shelter for your family? This IS getting scary! :scared:

[RawMaterials]

59. Mark of the beast?

Why does one who looks at revelations assume that the US "Christan's" are on the "good" side

[54anickel]

51. (Meanwhile) Food stamp demand swells

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1137737

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050110/NEWS01/501010302/1002

snip>

A national trend

Montana's increasing use of food stamps is mirrored nationally.

Since 2000, more than 6 million Americans have joined the ranks of families who find it increasingly difficult to put food on their tables. By the end of 2003, 21.3 million Americans were using the food stamp program.

Following a seven-year decline, the number of Americans on food stamps has shot up 39 percent since 2000, according to federal statistics.

Every state except Hawaii has felt the impact.

In Arizona, food stamp rolls have increased 104 percent; in Nevada, 97 percent; Oregon, 79 percent; South Carolina, 68 percent; Missouri, 65 percent.

Texas added nearly 1 million people to its food stamp rolls in only four years.

more one sentence paragraphs...:eyes:

[UpInArms]

54. and municipalities continue to layoff employees

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/news/01102005_nw_phillylayoffs.html

Philadelphia Layoffs

PHILADELPHIA CITY HALL-January 10, 2005 — The city of Philadelphia will mail out pink slips to city employees. But, the city plans to lay off fewer employees than first thought.

In December, city managing director Phil Goldsmith said as many as 500 city workers would be let go in order to balance the budget.

Now, Goldsmith says it will be much less – more than likely, between 170 and 200.

...very short newsblurb...

[54anickel]

56. Think they left out a couple of words. "it will be much less -"...

FOR NOW!

[UpInArms]

94. and down in "red-state" Mississippi

Educators fear budget cuts, layoffsLawmakers say full funding looks bleak for education

http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050110/NEWS01/501100301/1002

State budget cuts can seem far from the classroom, but when Dacia Haralson got a pink slip because of the lack of funding in 2004, it was an eye-opening experience.

The 25-year-old Hattiesburg resident lost her job at Hawkins Elementary School after cuts were announced in April, and said she has learned life for a young teacher in Mississippi is anything but secure.

"I still can't say I feel secure, but I don't really feel threatened either," said Haralson, who has since accepted a position as a guidance counselor at Oak Park Elementary School in Laurel.

"With the state in such chaos, I've learned to be more flexible. Not only do I have a plan A, B and C, but now there's a plan D, E and F and so on," she said.

Haralson was among 200 Pine Belt educators to receive pink slips in April although many were rehired after the statewide budget package came in with more money than the original numbers indicated.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

63. some more similarity's

* By 1929, the richest 1 percent will own 40 percent of the nation's wealth. The bottom 93 percent will have experienced a 4 percent drop in real disposable per-capita income between 1923 and 1929.

* The middle class comprises only 15 to 20 percent of all Americans.

* Individual worker productivity rises an astonishing 43 percent from 1919 to 1929. But the rewards are being funneled to the top: the number of people reporting half-million dollar incomes grows from 156 to 1,489 between 1920 and 1929, a phenomenal rise compared to other decades. But that is still less than 1 percent of all income-earners.

[UpInArms]

70. here are today's statistics

http://www.villagevoice.com/news/0501,harkavy,59767,2.html

excerpt:

Wealth disparity is even more pronounced than income disparity. The top 1 percent of all U.S. households own 38 percent of all wealth (property, cash, savings, stock value, and insurance policies—minus mortgage payments, credit card debt, and other debts). Wealth inequality generally fell from 1929 to the mid '70s. Since then, it's doubled.


Five percent of Americans own 59 percent of all wealth; the top 20 percent own 83 percent of all wealth. The bottom 20 percent have zero wealth. Excluding owner-occupied housing, the inequality is worse: 1 percent of families hold half of all non-home wealth.


Ten percent of families own 85 percent of financial securities and 90 percent of all business assets.


The average African American family has 60 percent of the income of the average white family. But the average African American family has only 18 percent of the wealth of the average white family.


In the U.S., 1 percent of American families own 38 percent of all wealth. In Great Britain, it's 22 or 23 percent. Until the early '70s, we had less wealth inequality than Britain.


More than 34 million Americans are officially "poor," a class including nearly 25 percent of all African Americans and more than 20 percent of all Latinos.


The minimum wage has fallen by about 35 percent in real terms since its peak in 1968.

...more...

just to compare one piece:

yours:

By 1929, the richest 1 percent will own 40 percent of the nation's wealth. The bottom 93 percent will have experienced a 4 percent drop in real disposable per-capita income between 1923 and 1929.

mine:

Wealth disparity is even more pronounced than income disparity. The top 1 percent of all U.S. households own 38 percent of all wealth (property, cash, savings, stock value, and insurance policies—minus mortgage payments, credit card debt, and other debts). Wealth inequality generally fell from 1929 to the mid '70s. Since then, it's doubled.

[54anickel]

72. Whew! Nothing to worry about then. We've got another 2% to go!

<sacrasm off.

[Just Me]

88. Any possibility they are intentionally setting up another depression?

:shrug:

Honestly, that has been my thinking,...they are intentionally creating an environment for a depression but merely "controlling" the element of mass hysteria. After all, who would most profit from such a climate,...then, add a few wars (maybe even another WW) into the brew.

America, the military-corporate nation.

[UpInArms]

92. although that is how this appears

in so many ways - I (and this is jmho) don't think that they are that introspective.

I think that because they have always been in the "have a lot" class, they are truly disconnected from the reality of life for the other 92 to 99 percent of the population.

They never even consider that there is a world that they don't know, don't see and don't hear about.

They are merely the "ruling" class that has a completely different view - one of entitlement - to rule over those that just don't have any financial or political power.

What happens is never their fault, as they don't even give a rat's ass about consequences.

As GHWB said in '91 - "my grandchildren will not be affected by this recession".

[RawMaterials]

101. well if you look back at how some of these depressions

they all have the same end, gain to the bankers. one could be really paranoid and read some Greg plast(the best democracy money can buy)

and come to the conclusion that its just the time that the world bank and the IMF want to grab all the valuable assets within the USA.

[Changenow]

113. How did some investors survive the depression?

I remember that Joe Kennedy wasn't hurt but I forget why.

[54anickel]

33. Global growth to reach four pct in 2005: central bankers

HA! Talk about someone just pullin' wishful thinkin' outta their a$$!!! What, he's got a crystal ball or sumptin?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=1&u=/afp/20050110/bs_afp/bisg10economybankforex_050110125330

BASEL, Switzerland (AFP) - Global economic growth will continue to be "substantial" in 2005, reaching about four percent partly due to the end of the growth in oil prices, top central bankers revealed.

After "substantial" growth last year, "growth in 2005 will be equally quite substantial, at around four percent," Jean-Claude Trichet, who chairs the G10 group of central bankers, said Monday after a regular meeting in the Swiss city of Basel.

No more.

[54anickel]

39. Those I.P.O.'s Are Sizzling Hot. Uh-Oh.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/09/business/yourmoney/09ipo.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1105370272-YIQpWFezBn1yEmflIGf8RA

snip>

Ms. Killian, a founder of Renaissance Capital, the Greenwich, Conn., firm that created the first initial public offering mutual fund, passed on Marchex because it was young - just 14 months old at the time - and had yet to turn a profit. "We gave Marchex a very, very weak rating on fundamentals," she said.

Evidently, plenty of other investors felt differently. Marchex ranked as the most successful initial public offering of 2004 in the United States. The company's stock soared 223 percent for the year, a feat outdone only by two companies based in China that went public last year: Shanda Interactive Entertainment, an online game company whose shares rose 286 percent, and 51Job, a job search site, at 271 percent.

By all accounts, 2004 was a very good year for initial public offerings. There were 242 I.P.O.'s, which almost equaled the total from 2001, 2002 and 2003 - combined. And the new stock offerings provided a handsome payoff to those brave enough to wade into these choppy waters. Investors who bought equal shares of every 2004 I.P.O. would have had a 21 percent return on their investment, Ms. Killian said.

But as the second half of the 1990's proved, a robust I.P.O. market isn't necessarily the same as a healthy one. "When you see riskier, less seasoned companies go public - and then perform quite well - then the natural question you have to ask is, have we learned nothing?" said Michael Moe, the chief executive of ThinkEquity Partners, a research-oriented investment bank based in San Francisco.

The share prices of any number of companies that went public last year rose despite little or no history of profits. That list includes ZipRealty, an online real estate site based in Emeryville, Calif.; PlanetOut, a San Francisco-based online community for gays and lesbians; and InPhonic, which sells cellphones and wireless plans via the Internet and is based in Washington, D.C.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Woo-hoo!!! Look at that spike - 10:27

Dow 10,630.78 +26.82 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,102.04 +13.43 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 1,190.85 +4.66 (+0.39%)
10-yr Bond 4.279% -0.006
30-yr Bond 4.841% -0.012
NYSE Volume 296,798,000
Nasdaq Volume 528,739,000

10:00AM: Market improves its stance somewhat as equities now trade in split fashion... Showing relative strength have been homebuilding (+1.2%) and energy, with the latter catching a bid as crude oil prices continue to hold gains in excess of 1.0% above $46/bbl... Materials, led by 1.4% and 1.0% gains in gold and steel, respectively, has traded higher as utility and retail have also gained ground... Telecom services (-0.9%), however, has shown the most weakness early on while semiconductor and hardware have led the list of technology laggards...
Also under pressure have been airline, financial and pharmaceutical...NYSE Adv/Dec 1620/1003, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1254/1266


U.S. stocks point higher
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050110/a078fb02e6264c7f23d8a2440446c484_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks were looking at a slightly positive start Monday morning bolstered by a flurry of mega mergers including a $6 billion dollar deal for Alltel to buy Western Wireless.

snip>

Any stock gains were likely to be modest, however, as strategists expect more caution after a disappointing start to the new year. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) sliding 1.7 percent, the S&P 500 (CBOE:^SPX - News) shedding 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) skidding 4 percent.

"After being surprised by the softer market last week, actually the worst start in the major averages since 1991, investors are likely to be a little cautious going into this week," Barrington Research's Alexander P. Paris told clients.

Paris noted that the Nasdaq and small and mid-cap averages "not only wiped out all of the strong gains for all of December but around 40 percent of the big fourth quarter rally" last week.

Merger Monday

more...

[UpInArms]

43. 10:33 EST numbers (YEE-HAW!) and some blather

Dow 10,639.49 +35.53 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,104.38 +15.77 (+0.76%)
S&P 500 1,191.75 +5.56 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 42.83 -0.02 (-0.05%)

NYSE Volume 322,982,000
Nasdaq Volume 571,556,000

10:00AM: Market improves its stance somewhat as equities now trade in split fashion... Showing relative strength have been homebuilding (+1.2%) and energy, with the latter catching a bid as crude oil prices continue to hold gains in excess of 1.0% above $46/bbl... Materials, led by 1.4% and 1.0% gains in gold and steel, respectively, has traded higher as utility and retail have also gained ground... Telecom services (-0.9%), however, has shown the most weakness early on while semiconductor and hardware have led the list of technology laggards...

Also under pressure have been airline, financial and pharmaceutical...NYSE Adv/Dec 1620/1003, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1254/1266

the buck

Last trade 83.26 Change -0.35 (-0.42%)

Settle 83.61 Settle Time 23:37

Open 83.42 Previous Close 83.61

High 83.61 Low 83.13

Last tick: 2005-01-10 09:53:17 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

47. updated blather

10:30AM: Stocks continue to trade at improved levels as broad-based buying pushes the market averages into positive territory... Meanwhile, November wholesale inventories came out at the top of the hour rising a stronger than expected 1.1%, matching October's strong gain and marking a 15th consecutive monthly rise... Economists had expected inventories to show an increase of 0.7%... Wholesalers' sales rose 0.7% to leave the inventory-to-sales ratio unchanged at a low 1.15 months, where it has been since June after reaching a record low of 1.12 months in April...

The strong growth should provide a stronger boost to November business inventories (out on Friday) as only the retail inventories component remains unknown...NYSE Adv/Dec 1687/1223, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1391/1322

[54anickel]

50. So, are we back to the idea that this is a good thing? Building inventory

based on expectation of higher future sales? Bwahahahhaaa-hee-hee-ta-hee-SNORT!

[54anickel]

53. Oops, guess not...nothing to worry about though.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050110/economy_inventories_1.html

November Wholesale Inventories Up 1.1 Pct

snip>

Despite the larger-than-expected gain, a 0.7 percent increase in sales kept the inventory-to-sales ratio -- a measure of how long it would take to deplete inventories at the current sales pace -- at a lean 1.15 months' worth, the Commerce Department said. :eyes:

The rise in inventories reflected a 1.3 percent gain in stocks of durable goods -- big-ticket items meant to last three years or more -- and a 0.9 gain in shorter-lived items.

Automobile inventories, which had dropped 1.6 percent in October, climbed 0.5 percent as sales dropped 2.3 percent, metal stocks gained 3.9 percent and computer inventories shot up 4.0 percent.

[RawMaterials]

60. better start slashing prices to reduce some of the inventorys

Didnt the bankers cause the Great Depresion just to make sure that war would soon fallow? :tinfoilhat:

[UpInArms]

45. Crude taps 5-week high above $46

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.4357665278-830818631&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures climbed above $46 a barrel early Monday to tap their highest intraday level in over five weeks, lifted by colder weather forecasts in the Northeast and continued attacks on oil operations in Northern Iraq ahead of the country's elections later this month. February crude traded as high as $46.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a level not seen since Dec. 1. It last traded at $46.55, up $1.12. February heating oil is also up 5.2 percent at $1.34 a gallon and February unleaded gas is up 3.8 percent at $1.26 a gallon. February natural gas is at $6.40 per million British thermal units, up 6.7 percent.

[UpInArms]

82. update: Crude taps six-week high above $47

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6A84A1F6%2D7672%2D431D%2D9181%2D08CBB3A65DA0%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures rose above $47 a barrel Monday to touch their highest intraday level in nearly six weeks, lifted by weather-related disruptions to North Sea shipments and reports of new attacks on oil operations in Iraq ahead of the country's elections late this month.

Crude for February delivery traded as high as $47.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a level not seen since Dec. 1. The contract last traded at $46.90, up $1.47.

Oil-product futures also climbed. February heating oil was up 6.92 cents, or 5.4 percent, at $1.3425 a gallon, while February unleaded gasoline traded at $1.247 a gallon, up 3.28 cents, or 2.7 percent.

Rounding out the Nymex trading, February natural gas tacked on 49.9 cents, or 8.3 percent, to stand at $6.50 per million British thermal units -- a two-week high.

...more...

[UpInArms]

52. sheep-caller alert: Pru's Keon more bullish on stocks

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.4524985301-830819214&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Prudential chief investment strategist Ed Keon said he has become more bullish on stocks in the past week as valuations and the outlook for earnings have improved. In addition, the dollar has rallied and inflation concerns have been mitigated. Keon believes fourth-quarter earnings could grow more than 20 percent over year-earlier levels. Meanwhile, he kept his year-end 2005 forecast for the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) unchanged at 1,250, which is 4.9 percent above the current price of 1,191.

is he pulling a Tom Ridge here? cheerleading a rally, yet keeping his forecast unchanged?

[54anickel]

55. A cheerleading rally? No, he's ly-y-y-y-y-ing!

Call 'em like I see 'em! :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

58. A Word From A Dollar Bear

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2005/0110/036.html

The dollar has fallen savagely against the euro for the past three years, and the trade deficit is running $55 billion a month. Is the currency rout over? Can the trade deficit be fixed with a rise in interest rates or an upward revaluation of the Chinese currency? Warren Buffett, the world's most visible dollar bear, says the answer to both these questions is no. His bet against the dollar, reported at $12 billion in his last annual report (for Dec. 31, 2003), has gotten all the bigger. Now his Berkshire Hathaway has a $20 billion bet in favor of the euro, the pound and six other foreign currencies.

Buffett has for a long time been lecturing fellow Americans about their bad habit of borrowing from abroad to live well today. He made a big stink about his currency trades in his March 2004 letter to shareholders. FORBES phoned him recently for an update, hoping for the news that the Scold of Omaha had softened his views on the decline of the dollar. What we got was more doom and gloom, more than we have ever heard from the man. In other words, he is not about to cover his short position on the dollar.

snip>

Still, that Buffett is making a currency bet at all is striking given that this investor has, in his 74 years, rarely made macroeconomic bets. He built Berkshire to a $130 billion market value by acquiring parts or all of lots of businesses, primarily in the insurance sector and primarily in the U.S. Now some of those assets are antidollar assets. Example: In 2002 he bought bonds of Level 3, a telecom company, that were denominated in euros. In 2000 Berkshire picked up MidAmerican Energy, a gas pipeline company. By doing so, Berkshire indirectly acquired the assets of Northern Electric, a utility in England, at a time when the pound was worth $1.58. Now it's worth $1.94, so Berkshire has a paper gain irrespective of any appreciation in the electric company's pound-denominated earning power.

snip>

How about a soft landing for our deficit-addicted economy? Don't count on it. We're running $100 billion a year in the hole against China, but Buffett doesn't expect that an upward revaluation of the renminbi (stoutly resisted, in any event, by the Chinese government) would greatly reduce this number.

How about a rise in short-term interest rates? They used to say on Wall Street, "Six percent interest will draw money from the moon." Buffett is skeptical, though, that the recent tightening by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will do much more than "put off the day of reckoning."

more...

[54anickel]

61. CEO pay faces new hurdles: Investors (About friggen time!)

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0110payproxies10.html

Amgen Inc., Coca-Cola Co., Home Depot Inc. and as many as 150 other companies will deal with shareholder proposals this year that would control executive compensation.

Resolutions were filed at Amgen, AT&T Corp., Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and Home Depot by American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees pension plan. Proposals for 2005 proxy statements were filed by other holders with Coca-Cola and American Electric Power Co.

Many investors are demanding new rules after chief-executive compensation grew 10 times as fast as the average pay of U.S. workers in the past 20 years. Average pay for CEOs reached $4.6 million in Standard & Poor's 500 Index companies in 2003, according to the Corporate Library, a corporate-governance consulting firm.

"Compensation has become the number-one issue for shareholders," said Bruce Goldfarb, senior managing director of New York-based Georgeson Shareholder Communications Inc.

snip>

Union pension funds, individual investors and socially responsible investment funds sponsor most of the resolutions, which have received support from 25 percent of voting shareholders.

more...

[UpInArms]

62. just a bit of "weird" news

ICOS Says Gates Stepping Down From Board

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/01/10/ap1748966.html

ICOS Corp., which codeveloped erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis, said Monday that Microsoft Corp. founder Bill H. Gates is resigning from ICOS' board next month.

The software mogul, who has served on ICOS' board since 1990, will step down on Feb. 9 after recently joining the board of Warren Buffet's investment firm Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Gates said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that he limits his involvement to one other public company outside of Microsoft and his foundation because of time constraints.

...more...

hmmmm....

[RawMaterials]

65. I dont think its that wierd he has been buddies with warren

for quite some time.

[UpInArms]

69. no, just 'cuz I have a twisted sense of humor

- I just didn't realize that Bill had worries about having a limp one :evilgrin:

[RawMaterials]

85. it is funny that Microsoft founder was also responsible

for an erection pill

[54anickel]

71. Name of the game - "Follow the Money". Looking at Bill's history, I

don't believe he's made a single financially related decision based on the "buddy system" since the early start-up of the Microsoft dynasty. There's more than likely a reason that he is leaving the Macrohard business. :evilgrin:

(Always wanted to get the "hubby" a hat embroidered with that term using the famous colors and font of the Microsoft logo.)

[54anickel]

64. Automotive sales may run out of gas in 2005

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/jan05/291118.asp

Auto sales, which surged in December and finished 2004 with the first increase since 2000, could face a pullback in this year, some economists and analysts warn.

A climate of rising interest rates, and the fact that so many new cars have been sold in recent years, could result in a slight drop in sales in 2005.

Economists project that car and light-truck sales, which hit 16.9 million in 2004, will rise again this year, buoyed by job growth, household wealth, continued use of rebates and incentives by vehicle manufacturers and a host of new models being introduced at auto shows around the country, beginning last week in Los Angeles.

Gary Schlossberg, senior economist at Wells Capital Management in San Francisco, said he’s less optimistic, given rising interest rates. Slowing growth in housing prices could affect household income and wealth to the point where the volume of new car sales is threatened, he said. That, however, could be offset by strong job growth.

more...

[UpInArms]

66. Southwest Securities to pay SEC $10 mln penalty (for fraud)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.4675129051-830819651&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Southwest Securities, a subsidiary of SWS Group Inc. (SWS) , will pay the Securities and Exchange Commission $10 million to settle SEC and NYSE charges, the SEC announced Monday. Southwest and three managers failed to supervise brokers in a Dallas office who were late trading mutual fund shares and committing market timing fraud. Shares of SWS Group were recently trading up 30 cents at $20.72.

[UpInArms]

67. CEO resignations hit 2004 high in December (Fat Rats abandoning ships?)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.4736044444-830819876&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (CBS.MW) - More chief executive officers resigned in December than in any month last year, according to Challenger Gray & Christmas, an outplacement consulting firm. Of the 56 exiting CEOs last month, 29, or 52 percent, resigned, a 2004 record high.

[54anickel]

68. Apocalypse Later

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=39486

Despite all the worried talk about the sliding dollar, both the financial markets and economic forecasters are taking it in stride. Conspicuously, nobody speaks of a dollar crisis at present or in the future. High-riding expectations of a strong year-end rally in the stock markets have been somewhat disappointed. Yet there have been two pleasant major surprises. One is the sharp fall of oil prices, and the other is the resilience of the U.S. bond market, defying not only the dollar's weakness, but also the four rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

It appears to be a common view that economic growth in the eurozone and Japan is badly faltering again, with both countries flirting with new recessions. In contrast, the forecasts for the U.S. economy remain rather upbeat, hailing the plunges in oil prices and the dollar.

We stick to our diametrically opposite view that the U.S. economy is prone to sharply slower growth. It is the profligate consumer who has kept the economy afloat since 2000. What kept the consumer afloat is also no secret. It was mainly two events: First, inordinate tax cuts; and second, exploding ultra-cheap borrowing facilities, made available through the Fed's creative bubble strategy and implemented by ultra-low short-term interest rates.

Together, the two have unquestionably contained the fallout from the bursting stock market bubble. They also had respectable effects in terms of U.S. real GDP growth during the second half of 2003 and the first half of 2004. Yet the most important aim of all the monetary and fiscal stimulus - to set in motion a self-sustaining economic recovery - has been flatly missed.

A "self-sustaining" U.S. economic recovery urgently needs accelerating employment and income growth. Just the opposite is happening. During the six months up to last November, real disposable personal income grew just 1%, or 2% annualized. This is down from 3% in the first half of 2004 and 4.8% in the second half of 2003. Taxes and higher inflation rates are taking their toll. Debt-financed spending went to new records. During the third quarter, private households increased their spending by $139.4 billion, while their earnings increased only $81.6 billion.

Employment and income growth are the key fundamentals of household finance. According to the reports of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), they have significantly improved in 2004. But no less than two-thirds of these gains owe their creation to the ominous "net birth/death" computer model of the BLS, designed to estimate employment growth by new business formations.

more...

[54anickel]

73. The Missing Link

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/richebacher/richebacher011005a.html

snip>

Nobody seems to realize the enormous damages that the egregious trade deficit has inflicted on the U.S. economy. Indisputably, it diverts U.S. demand from domestic producers to foreign producers, and this implies an equivalent diversion of employment and associated income creation from the United States to these countries. That is the manifest direct damage of the trade deficit to the U.S. economy, the obvious main victim being the manufacturing sector, with horrendous job and income losses.

Blinded by the dogma of compelling mutual benefits; policymakers, economists, investors and the American public flatly refuse to see this disastrous causal connection. The alternative explanation is that America's extremely poor job performance has its main cause in the highly desirable high rate of productivity growth.

It is a convenient, but foolish explanation, reminding us of the early days of industrialization, when people destroyed machinery for fear of unemployment. For us, productivity growth that destroys millions of jobs is definitely suspect as a mirage. Historically, strong productivity growth has always coincided with strong capital investment involving, in turn, strong employment growth in the capital goods industries.

That is presently, of course, precisely the missing link in the U.S. economic recovery. (As an aside, in a healthy economy with adequate savings, cutting labor costs generally takes place through investment, not through firing.)

The job losses from the soaring trade deficit have always been there. But they did not show up in the aggregate for many years because the booming economy - driven by extremely loose monetary policy - created sufficient alternative jobs. But this alternative job creation has drastically abated since 2000, and the soaring trade deficit's damage to manufacturing is now surfacing in full force.

snip>

What governs the U.S. trade deficit is not the law of "comparative advantages," but the careless depletion of domestic saving and investment resources though policies that have recklessly bolstered consumption. Essentially, employment creation through capital investment is out. Putting it bluntly, the U.S. trade deficit, like all other imbalances, reflects a grossly skewed resource allocation toward consumption.

more...

[UpInArms]

74. Asst. Treasury financial secretary resigns (what to believe?)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.4792382639-830820002&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Wayne Abernathy, assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, announced Monday that he would resign from his post after Jan. 31. "Our nation's financial institutions are stronger and more prepared today," Abernathy said in a letter to President Bush. Abernathy said he is leaving government to work in the private sector, though he did not specify where he would go.

Wonder if anyone would ever be brutally honest in a "resignation" letter - kind of like:

I'm leaving because I cannot bear to watch the markets be manipulated through the efforts of the Working Assets Group any longer. Doing so compromises my ethics and honor as a citizen.

:sigh:

[54anickel]

78. Do you think,,,,He's Ly-y-y-y-y-y-ing?...n/t

[UpInArms]

75. Taser extends losses on concerns about SEC probe (not because they have

a defective and deadly product)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.4828410301-830820179&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Taser International (TASR) shares lost another 8 percent of their value Monday, extending their prior session's losses on concern about an informal SEC probe of the company's safety statements and sales to a distributor. The share lost as much as 23 percent Friday before closing down about 18 percent. Shares were last trading at $20.92, down $1.85, or 8.1 percent.

[54anickel]

76. The New Year

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_011005.html

If there is a risk to the market in the current war it is not so much in it continuing as it has over the past six months but that it spreads to other areas or countries such as Syria or Iran thus requiring a build up and escalation. Further risk is seen if a major disruption of oil supplies were to occur either in Iraq or Iran or a successful attack on the oil installations in Saudi Arabia. If that were the case a spike to $75 oil could not be ruled out. At those levels oil would then be approaching levels in inflation adjusted terms seen at the time of the Arab Oil crisis in the mid 1970's and again surrounding the Iranian hostage crisis. Then it would have a serious impact on the economy. At current levels in the low/mid $40 oil prices are not sufficiently high enough to tip the economy.

This leads us the potential or ongoing financial disaster in the making that lurks in the background. This too is a man made disaster. Of course many of us have been sounding the alarm of a financial meltdown in the economy and stock market for years and to date the Great Depression that some have predicted has not happened. We did get the tech meltdown and corporate scandals aided by the terrorist attack of September 11 but that bottomed in 2002 and it has been pretty good ever since or at least it appears that way. But the fact that a real economic meltdown hasn't happened despite the tech meltdown, war and terrorist attacks has given new life to the bulls. The bulls have been persistent in their belief that one just keeps investing and largely ignore all the bad noise in the background as it has always been there and the market always bounces back.

We all know that the reason the market and economy have done so well over the past few years is the huge monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been injected into the market. A rapidly growing money supply above the rate of economic growth; tax cuts; interest rates maintained at artificially low levels far below the rate of inflation; excessive spending to finance the war in Iraq and excessive spending by the consumer financed with mortgage refinancings and credit cards because of the low interest rates has given the illusion that all is well. Not surprisingly it has taken nearly $10 in new debt to purchase a dollar of GDP in this cycle. If a company added $10 in new debt to gain a dollar of revenue the market would punish the stock mercilessly yet the market instead views it as positive that the consumer and the government just keep spending even if they are just writing IOU's that may never be repaid even as servicing is maintained and there is an acceptable level of defaults.

Some view this as a vibrant economy. The US is running record trade deficits largely because of consumer spending on hordes of cheap foreign goods brought in as a result of the hollowing out of America's manufacturing base that has gone largely to China and India. Again these trade deficits are viewed by some as good as it is recycling of money. We buy their goods, they finance the US's debt and everyone is happy. With a trade deficit that is now 6% of GDP they seem to ignore that if this were any country but the USA the IMF would now be called in and a financial crisis of major proportions would be gripping the country and the currency would be in a free fall. And if the trade deficit isn't enough the budget deficit is now 4% of GDP and rising (and some numbers already suggest it is already at 6% of GDP and considerably higher than reported when one takes in all of the costs associated with the war in Iraq).

But the US currency has yet to go into a free fall and everyone is locked in the game of buying the US debt to prop up the charade because if they didn't continue there would be a financial meltdown to the detriment of everyone. They seem to forget that the law of averages says that one day an accident will happen and they won't be able to get out of the way. Why these countries continue to buy debt that does nothing but go down in value seems to be the height of insanity. But such is the nature of the game. It requires mutual insanity to continue.

The economy has been allegedly expanding but jobs have come reluctantly. By this stage of the economic recovery it should have created upwards of six million new jobs. Instead the US is barely back to the employment levels of 2000. Recent reports indicated that there were upwards of a million job losses in 2004 due to closings; layoffs etc. Yet the monthly non farm payroll indicates that jobs are growing not in decline. This of course is bogus as while there has been job growth and hiring's it may be lower than reported because the non-farm payroll includes assumptions for self employment growth based on economic growth.

more...

[UpInArms]

83. Hedge funds lagged stocks in '04, Van Hedge says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBAFCC1B4%2DF8BF%2D4445%2D973A%2D5A514850A07C%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Hedge fund returns lagged the performance of benchmark equity indexes in 2004 as stagnant markets before November limited trading opportunities, Van Hedge Fund Advisors International said Monday.

The Van Global Hedge Fund Index, which tracks about 350 hedge funds, gained 1.6 percent in December, bringing gains for last year up to 7.8 percent, Van said in a statement. The index returned 19.7 percent in 2003.

The U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 10.9 percent in 2004, while the MSCI World Equity Index advanced 12.8 percent, Van said.

"Although hedge funds in 2004 didn't match their performance from the previous year, they performed well given the challenges they faced: a range-bound stock market until the November elections, rising oil prices and interest rates, and dampened volatility during parts of the year." George Van, chairman of Van Hedge Fund Advisors, said.

Short-selling hedge funds, which bet on falling share prices, were the worst-performing strategy in 2004, Van added.

...more...

[54anickel]

86. Bond bubble, American-style

http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA05Dj01.html

snip>

We believe a nasty popping of the bond-market bubble lies in wait for investors. Why? In short, yields are too low, bond prices too high, and quality spreads too tight. The gargantuan rally, which actually peaked in June 2003, as evidenced in the monthly chart of 30-year bond futures below, should soon be history.

The primary source of the "wildness" seems easy to pinpoint ahead of time - this time. It's the US Federal Reserve. It was the engineering of the emergency Fed Funds rate, to save the world from the clutches of deflation (denying this as the proper cleansing agent for economic sins past) that proved most impressive as bubble fuel. It's now the long march toward the elusive "normalization" of benchmark interest rates that will draw Zeppelin-like comparisons from observers as long-bond prices head toward earth.

We wouldn't be surprised to see a surprise in the form of inflation scare, major hedge-fund collapse, or foreign bank reserve reallocation to hasten the descent of fixed income prices across the entire spectrum: from Treasury to junk. Those holding junk bonds, now the darling of yield chasers, will soon understand the moniker.

Here are a few tidbits of anecdotal evidence for your perusal:

snip>

The Fed's "policy mistake" was its decision to run the printing press 24/7 in order save the US economy from what it perceived as a Japan-style deflation. It was a conscious decision by the Fed to create asset bubbles rather than face the painfully healing music of recession. These asset bubbles and artificially lower interest rates have distorted consumer preferences. Instead of relying on genuine old-fashioned income growth to fund consumption, consumers have leveraged wealth off the stock and real-estate bubbles. And precisely because the yield on cash was at historic lows, both professional and not-so-professional investors quickly realized the advantages of borrowing short and lending long.

In other words, the Fed has engineered the largest one-way bet in history. The bet: long rates will stay low as far as the eye can see. Risk and uncertainty don't enter into the equation when there's such "easy" money to be made. What seems to be coming into focus is our "understanding how people on the scene" are "oblivious to what lay wait for them".

more...

[RawMaterials]

87. 12:21 EST Market Update

Market Update

12:00PM: Stocks opened a bit lower with little in the way of market-moving news to shrug off higher oil prices, but have since embraced a flurry of M&A activity and almost anything optimistic to keep the major indices in the green... While crude oil prices ($46.90/bbl +$1.47) have surged more than 3% to 6-week highs, after production was halted in the North Sea due to bad weather, investors have used a handful of proposed mergers as a catalyst to get stocks back on track after a week's worth of losses...

Alltel Corp (AT 54.98 -1.14) has said it will buy Western Wireless (WWCA 37.47 +0.95) for roughly $4.4 bln while News Corp (NWS 18.00 -0.23) has said it plans to purchase all the existing Fox Entertainment Group (FOX 34.17 +2.95) shares it does not already own... Homebuilding (+2.3%) has led the way to the upside while managed health, biotech and energy have also enjoyed gains in excess of 1.0%... In technology, disk drive and networking have accounted for most of the strength while utility, retail and materials have also found buying interest... Trading lower has been airline (-1.1%), at the expense of higher oil prices, while telecom service has also been weak...

Meanwhile, November wholesale inventories rose a better than expected 1.1% (consensus +0.7%), marking a 15th consecutive monthly rise, providing a stronger boost to upcoming business inventories data... But since the data says close to nothing about personal consumption, the data has gone relatively unnoticed... The end of a six-day rally in the dollar has the greenback down roughly 0.4% against the euro (1.3109) while treasuries have held relatively stable near the unchanged mark most of the morning... The benchmark 10-year note is unchanged yielding 4.26%...

[UpInArms]

89. 12:35 EST and a side of numbers to go with that

:D

Dow 10,643.64 +39.68 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,105.70 +17.09 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 1,192.54 +6.35 (+0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 42.77 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 709,540,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,100,013,000

the buck

Last trade 83.21 Change -0.40 (-0.48%)

Settle 83.61 Settle Time 23:37

Open 83.42 Previous Close 83.61

High 83.61 Low 83.13

Last tick: 2005-01-10 12:01:54 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

90. Is it just me, or do those volume numbers seem a bit low?...n/t

[UpInArms]

91. here's a comparative from last Thursday

12:53

NYSE Volume 801,958,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,205,971,000

and now at 12:49

NYSE Volume 746,951,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,141,781,000

they do seem to be running a bit low today

[54anickel]

93. Uh-oh, look at the time! Gotta run Marketeers! Hope to check back

later this afternoon for the close! :hi:

[UpInArms]

95. (Fed Gov cheerleading?) Guynn wary, not worried about inflation

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB913F770%2D167D%2D4CE1%2D83A8%2D7A1D14D34565%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Higher inflation in the United States is not an imminent risk, but Federal Reserve policymakers are watching prices carefully, said Jack Guynn, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

"Good central bankers stay alert to change in the inflation outlook," Guynn said Monday in a speech on the 2005 economic outlook to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

"I do not think a significant pickup in inflation is imminent," he said. However, "I will be closely watching prices and inflation expectations

<snip>

Guynn said too much has been made of the FOMC's efforts to communicate with markets clearly about its views on the economy, inflation and interest rates. While the Fed has stepped up its transparency, there is no explicit or implied guarantee about policy going forward.

...more...

[UpInArms]

96. Congress to take up White House pension reform plan (is it bend-over time

for the taxpayers?)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.5376855208-830821741&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Labor Secretary Elaine Chao said Monday the Bush administration has received commitment from House and Senate leaders to take up pension reform legislation this year. In the House, Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.), chairmen of the House Education and Ways and Means committees, respectively, have said their panels will consider the legislation. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley (R-Ia.), and Senate Health,Education, Labor and Pension Committee Chairman Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) also said they will examine the issue. The administration unveiled its plan on Monday to shore up funds for the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, which will need Congressional approval.

[UpInArms]

97. 1:16 EST numbers and blather (spiking upward)

Dow 10,661.08 +57.12 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,109.13 +20.52 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 1,194.27 +8.08 (+0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 4.295 +0.10 (+0.23%)

NYSE Volume 809,107,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,218,426,000

1:00PM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, traders appear to be viewing last week's 3.8% gain in the dollar, the second-biggest weekly increase on record, as a bit unwarranted... The greenback, which surged last week on speculation that the Fed may raise rates at a faster pace and that the US may intervene to narrow the current trade deficit, has fallen against both the euro (1.3081) and the yen (104.25)... NYSE Adv/Dec 2249/953, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1875/1113

12:30PM: More of the same as stocks continue to boast noticeable gains... Despite losing a US Supreme Court bid to stop a class-action lawsuit issued by more than 600,000 doctors claiming that six managed-care companies underpaid them, managed health stocks have found some buying interest... Defendants catching a bid have been Wellpoint Health Networks (WLP 119.70 +3.90), PacifiCare Health Systems (PHS 57.06 +0.87), Humana (HUM 29.83 +0.41) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH 88.08 +0.85)...

Competitors Aetna Inc. (AET 126.53 +2.59) and Cigna Corp (CI 79.86 +1.04), which have already settled with the plaintiffs, have also traded higher... NYSE Adv/Dec 2263/902, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1869/1101

[JNelson6563]

98. Update and a kick

1:55 and it's a glorious day!

Dow 10,659.45 +55.49 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,110.25 +21.64 (+1.04%)
S&P 500 1,194.19 +8.00 (+0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.283% -0.002

Nevermind that there are lost of indicators of trouble, the Markets are up! ;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

100. WebMD unit ex-employees plead quilty to federal charges

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.5877125116-830823285&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- WebMD Corp. (HLTH) said Monday that three former employees of its WebMD Practice Services unit have pled guilty to charges of mail fraud, with one of them pleading guilty to the additional charge of tax evasion. The U.S. Attorney's investigation related to allegations of kickbacks and fraudulent accounting practices at the unit, which was previously known as Medical Manager Health Systems. WebMD said that it does not believe that the matter requires the restatement of its financial statements. The company said it continues to cooperate with the U.S. Attorney in its probe and that it has formed a special commitee to investigate the allegations internally.

don't you just love how they change names so that it get hard to know who and what these corporations are?

[RawMaterials]

102. 2:17 EST UPDATE

Market Update

2:00PM: Market continues to linger near session highs as sellers remain a hesitant bunch... On the Dow, Altria (MO 62.75 +1.35) has been the best performer after Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $68 from $62 citing the tobacco giant's stronger than expected overall business prospects while Boeing (BA 51.11 +0.80) has been lifted by news that the European Union is seeking to resolve allegations of illegal subsidies...

Verizon Communications (VZ 39.08 -0.33) and SBC Communications (SBC 24.86 -0.22), however, have been among the biggest laggards following the announcement of the proposed Alltel/Western Wireless merger... General Motors (GM 38.65 -0.35), which plans to trim its workforce by about 7%, has also lost ground... NYSE Adv/Dec 2338/908, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1971/1076

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[UpInArms]

103. Bush taps Allan Hubbard for White House economic aide

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.5967029745-830823524&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush has chosen Indiana businessman Allan Hubbard to be his top White House economic adviser, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Monday. Hubbard replaces Stephen Friedman as director of the National Economic Council, which coordinates economic policy similar to the way the National Security Council coordinates U.S. foreign policy. Friedman resigned late last year after replacing Larry Lindsey, who was fired in late 2002 as part of a larger shakeup of Bush's economic team.

background on Allan Hubbard:

http://www.tpj.org/pioneers/allan_hubbard.html

Name: Allan B. Hubbard
Occupation: President, E&A Industries, Inc.
Industry: Energy & Natural Resources
Home: Indianapolis, Indiana

Hubbard’s E&A Industries is the parent of Car Brite, Inc., which makes chemicals used to recondition cars. Hubbard also has stakes in a Minneapolis plastics company, a Pittsburgh real estate company and Centillion Data Systems software company. Hubbard is a former state GOP chair who once served as deputy chief of staff to Vice President Dan Quayle. Yet Hubbard and Pioneer Steve Goldsmith hosted a fundraiser for Bush before Quayle withered on the primary vine. Hubbard’s wife, Kathy, also is a Pioneer.

Bush Gubernatorial Races:
$5,000
Republican Hard Money:
$42,450
Republican Soft Money:
$0
Democratic Hard Money:
$0
Democratic Soft Money:
$0
Federal PAC Hard Money:
$0
Total Contributions:
$47,450
Soft Money from Employer:
$0
to Republicans:
$0
to Democrats:
$0

http://www.ombwatch.org/regs/archives/quayle.html

Cases of Quayle Council Interference

In the two years Vice President Dan Quayle chaired the Council on Competitiveness, the Council interfered in, stalled, or killed dozens of regulatory programs and issued sweeping policy reports with both legislative and regulatory proposals on issues such as biotechnology and product liability. Some examples:
The Quayle Council paved the way for interference by the White House in an important Clean Air Act rule that would allow electric utilities to evade pollution controls.

The Council worked to weaken a proposal to cut pollution over the Grand Canyon caused by a nearby power plant that created a haze over the Canyon and impaired visibility.

The Council targeted worker safety when it intervened in an OSHA rulemaking to block much needed protections for workers exposed to formaldehyde.

The Council planted a gaping loophole in the EPA's Clean Air Act permitting proposal, allowing polluters to increase toxic emissions -- as long as state authorities do not object to the pollution increase within seven days.

<snip>

Quayle's Council on Competitiveness interfered in an unknown number of regulatory programs, promoted anti-consumer policy proposals, and backed an array of deregulatory, pro-business legislative initiatives. Due in large part to the attention drawn by a report on the council, co-authored by OMB Watch and Public Citizen's Congress Watch, as well as widespread media coverage of the Quayle Council's role in the wetlands debate and the vice president's civil litigation reform proposals, the Council finally received some of the attention it deserved. A hearing before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, revealed the many ways the Council usurped congressional authority and hijacked the agency rule-making process.

There were reports of conflict of interest on the Council as well. Press accounts revealed that Allan Hubbard, the executive director of the Quayle Council on Competitiveness, was half-owner of an Indiana chemical company, and consequently may have had a conflict of interest in carrying out his public role. According to a report released by OMB Watch and Public Citizen, Hubbard also owned stock in an electric utility company, another industry subject to new Clean Air Act requirements. In response to these conflict of interest charges the White House has held up a waiver from conflict of interest laws that Quayle granted Hubbard in June 1991.

...more at link...

Oh, I can hardly wait to see what this jerk comes up with!

[UpInArms]

104. Oopsie! Stock funds stumble into 2005

Usual buying in first week of year fails to materialize

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2C4C033C%2DC498%2D41C6%2D9E66%2D5E42A84A4CA8%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- Although the first week of the year is usually a strong period for U.S. stock fund flows, the adage about how "flows follow performance" appears to be trumping the typical early-January trend.

During the first week of trading in 2005, the S&P 500 index (SPX: news, chart, profile) lost 2.1 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI: news, chart, profile) was down 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP: news, chart, profile) shed 4 percent.

The average U.S. stock fell nearly 5 percent in the first week of 2005, with smaller stocks falling harder than their larger peers, according to a report released Monday by Tom McManus, chief investment strategist at Banc of America Securities.

And as the indexes sagged, investors pulled $1.8 billion from U.S. stock funds during the week ended Jan 5, according to Banc of America.

"Last week's net redemption took many observers by surprise, as many had been expecting inflows to pick up" in tandem with the start of the year, McManus wrote.

...more...

[UpInArms]

105. since 54anickel isn't here - I have to

add this part:

However, McManus sees several reasons to be optimistic that fund flows will pick up, which in turn could help push stocks higher.

"First is a temporary corporate tax holiday, which will allow U.S. companies with foreign earnings to repatriate them at an advantageous rate through the end of 2005," McManus said. "Some expect hundreds of billions to find their way back onshore, and hope that companies might use part of their increase in domestic liquidity to repurchase stock."

Another potential boon for stocks is President Bush's plan to pursue a partial privatization of Social Security by allowing younger workers to set up personal accounts, which could pump a windfall of new money into the stock market. Any such move would have to be done with the approval of Congress.

[RawMaterials]

106. or this part

"The flows that did come into stock funds went overseas," said TrimTabs' Biderman.

Although it's unclear whether the market's early slide and surprising first-week outflows are signals of investors pessimism for the year ahead or nervousness over the late-2004 run-up, Biderman is optimistic on liquidity prospects for funds.

"Income, which is a huge factor affecting U.S. fund flows, is up dramatically over the past few years and again in 2004," he said. "If the market holds up, I expect to see big inflows starting from this point."

who does he think he is kidding, who's income?

[54anickel]

112. Ahh, thanks for pulling that out UIA! It certainly is going to be an

interesting year. So much pointing to what would normally lead to a down market - but all these new "improvments" going on. BeezleBush and Greenspin are pulling every single lever they can get their hands on to keep the overloaded barge of lquidity afloat.

[UpInArms]

107. Reinsurance rates begin to fall

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEA62463A%2D35DD%2D4CD0%2D9296%2DF5F1A9B551C7%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Reinsurance rates have started falling as companies compete with each other to put capital to work covering risks, according to a survey released Monday.

Property reinsurance rates declined 3 percent on average, while casualty and marine prices were mostly flat, broker Guy Carpenter & Co. said in a review of contract renewals that take place at the beginning of each year.

Reinsurance is purchased by primary insurers looking to spread the risks they've taken on. The cost of reinsurance ripples throughout the insurance industry because primary insurers often end up passing price changes down to companies and individuals.

The Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the slump in equity markets at the beginning of this decade restricted the money reinsurers had on hand to take on new risks. That led to a surge in prices. Now that upturn in the cycle is turning.

"Reinsurance pricing probably peeked in the summer of 2004 and we're now seeing the industry move into the soft part of the cycle," Sean Mooney, chief economist at Guy Carpenter, said in an interview.

...more...

this "writer" seems to completely overlook or ignore the Spitzer investigation into the fraud that has taken place to keep those rates sky high.

[UpInArms]

108. 3:42 (a peek before closing)

Dow 10,609.58 +5.62 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,095.94 +7.33 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,188.76 +2.57 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.278 -0.07 (-0.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,313,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,884,627,00

3:30PM: Bears return with a vengeance as the market now clings to slim gains heading into the close... While the recent downturn has been consistent with what investors saw all last week, such a late-day divergence is not encouraging... Dow component Alcoa (AA 30.51 -0.18) will kick off earnings season after the bell tonight while Intel (INTC 22.85 +0.05) will be the headliner tomorrow afternoon...

Analysts expect the chip giant to report Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.31 per share, a decline from the $0.33 it earned last year, but investors will be looking for any indication as to current trends in demand - signs that could have a significant influence on the overall tech sector... There will be no economic news of note until Wednesday...NYSE Adv/Dec 2196/1104, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1822/1286

3:00PM: Buyers remain in control of the action as an overall positive sentiment remains intact... But while every market average has rebounded from last week's lackluster action on the part of buyers, none have recovered as strongly as those indices with small cap components... As of Friday, the Russell 2000 and S&P SmallCap 600 had lost 5.9% and 5.7%, respectively, so far in 2005 compared to smaller losses on the blue chip indices of 1.7% (Dow) and 2.1% (S&P)...

Today, investors have embraced many of the companies somewhat neglected by the press but have the potential to get bigger, as the Russell 2000 (+1.4%) and S&P SmallCap 600 (+1.6%) have led the way... NYSE Adv/Dec 2251/1030, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1944/1135

[DoBotherMe]

109. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,620.81 +16.85 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,097.04 +8.43 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,190.16 +3.97 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.278% -0.007

NYSE Volume 1,475,504,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,073,009,000


Close: The market opened lower, but a recent batch of M&A action sparked enough buying interest to shrug off an intraday surge in oil prices and some last-minute profit taking to keep a bullish bias intact... Alltel's (AT 54.69 -1.43) $4.4 bln proposition to acquire Western Wireless (WWCA 37.35 +0.83) was followed by News Corp's (NWS 17.86 -0.37) plans to buy whatever it didn't already own of Fox Entertainment Group (FOX 34.17 +2.95) while Movie Gallery (MOVI 20.04 +0.97) agreed to buy Hollywood Entertainment (HLYW 13.81 +0.76) for $1.2 bln in cash and debt...
With regards to sectors, positive analyst comments helped sustain buying interest in homebuilding (+2.0%) while managed health stocks also caught a bid despite losing a Supreme Court submission to stop a class-action lawsuit... Biotech and retail both gained roughly 0.8% while strength in disk drive and networking offset weakness in semiconductor and software... Also strong were utility, materials and energy, with the latter holding onto gains in spite of crude oil, which surged 4.0% intraday to $47.30/bbl due to a bad weather related production stoppage in the North Sea, closing down -$0.10 at $45.33/bbl...

Losing ground on the day were airline (-1.0%) and telecom service (-0.9%)... Meanwhile, the dollar gave back some of the 3.8% it gained last week against the euro (1.3083) and lost ground against the yen (104.19), as traders viewed recent outperformance in the greenback as excessive, while bonds, which barely budged from the unchanged mark most of the session, closed the benchmark 10-year note down 1 tick to yield 4.27%...

[54anickel]

115. Adding just a tiny bit to that closing blather (only because it sounds

soooo ridiculous!

Separately, the Commerce Dept released November wholesale inventories of +1.1% (consensus +0.7%), marking a 15th consecutive monthly rise, but since the data mentioned nothing about personal consumption, the market basically viewed the release as a nonevent...DJUA +0.8, SOX -0.3, XOI +0.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 2019/1301, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1704/1407

[UpInArms]

117. so many nonevents

so little thought

..........

[UpInArms]

110. after the bell: Former PurchasePro, AOL execs charged by SEC, DOJ

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38362.6908572801-830826639&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has charged three former PurchasePro executives, including the former CEO Charles Johnson, and two former AOL (TWX) executives for allegedly committing fraud to artificially inflate PurchasePro's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2000 and the first quarter of 2001. In addition to the SEC charges, the U.S. Attorney's office has filed criminal charges against the former PurchasePro executives, Johnson, Chris Benyo and Michael Kennedy, and former AOL executives John Tuli and Kent Wakeford for alleged securities fraud.

[54anickel]

111. SHAME ON THE SEC (Then again, they have been rather busy

lately)

http://www.nypost.com/business/38194.htm

January 10, 2005 -- INVESTORS with money in the large and well- capitalized companies of the Dow Jones industrial average certainly felt blue last week, as the first five trading days of the new year brought a 180-point, or 2 percent, drop on well-placed fears that the Federal Reserve intends to keep raising interest rates until the economy stalls out.
But to any of the growing legions of investors lucky, nervy, or foolish enough to have been slumming instead last week in the investing world's seediest dive of them all — the penny stock market — Wall Street definitely looked pretty in pink.

In contrast to the stagnating market for so-called "big cap" stocks like those of the Dow industrials, the lawless and completely unregulated "gray market" for non-reporting penny stocks has been on fire for more than a year, and in the absence of effective regulatory oversight by the Securities and Exchange Commission, has been making new and ever-more outrageous highs almost daily.

Recent days have brought one of the most startling examples yet of just what is actually going on in that market, as SEC regulators attempted to perform a public service by moving against a fishy-smelling company called Absolute Health & Fitness Inc. after its soaring stock price attracted Internet blog posters who began to question whether the company even existed.

Yet instead of heading into court for an emergency order to shut down the business and seize its books and records, the commission slapped a 10-day trading suspension on the company's shares.

What happened next is one for the record books, as this worthless stock — which has traded under at least five different names over the years, and has long been a plaything of scruple-free "investor relations" promoters — came out of the penalty box and back onto the ice on the last trading day of December, and almost instantly soared 800 percent, then collapsed all over again, in what had all the earmarks of a flagrant pump-and-dump operation.

much more...

[54anickel]

118. Stock gains fade (This doesn't sound good)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9410254E%2DFFD2%2D4D33%2DB7D9%2D8736AD1A3043%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

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"It's just not a day that inspires a lot of confidence that the selling is out of the way," said John Hughes, managing director of Epiphany Equity Research.

"I don't think there's anything in the last three days, despite the fact that those declines have not been as significant as the earlier part of last week, that suggests this is over," Hughes added. "It's almost like a pause on the way down."

Hughes is looking for either a quick cleaning out or a gradual grind lower over the next couple of weeks to rid the market of selling pressure.

Kenneth Tower, chief market strategist at CyberTrader, however, said he believes it's quite likely markets have entered into a correction phase that's likely to last most of this month. He believes pickups like Monday's represent "selling opportunities," he said.