STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 14 February

[ozymandius]

Tuesday February 14, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1070 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1881 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1581 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1541
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 13, 2006

Dow... 10,892.32 -26.73 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq... 2,239.81 -22.07 (-0.98%)
S&P 500... 1,262.86 -4.13 (-0.33%)
30-Year Bond 4.56% +0.01 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.58% +0.00 (+0.04%)
Gold future... 542.10 -11.40 (-2.10%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[JNelson6563]

1. Welcome back Ozy!

And Happy Valentine's day to you and all the Marketeers!

I hope you had a good trip. The SMW thread went off without a hitch but it'll be better with you back. :toast:

Julie

[ozymandius]

2. Thank you all for making the thread happen!

That would be UpInArms and Julie. EuroObserver was on standby in case something unexpected happened.

And thank you to whomever gave me a Valentine heart. Southern California was gorgeous with 80-degree weather and clear skies. Twice we saw dolphins in the bay near Santa Monica. Once a coyote wandered out of the hills right in front of us. All such stunningly lovely creatures.

I was on a general news fast, onle gleaning a little bit of the news from the LA Times that arived every morning. I learned of Cheney's bagging a lawyer while browsing before a movie.

It's good to be back - jetlagged and all.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

12. Welcome Back Ozy!

I am so glad that you are back and that your trip was good!

:hug:

Most of those thanks go to Julie - I just got home yesterday afternoon - it was weird being unplugged, but very interesting to talk to people and see how they were looking at the world.

Will work on writing up that later today.

:hi:

[JNelson6563]

19. Glad everyone's back!

And I'd like to send a thank-you to European Observer for making the SMW thread jam packed with great info every morn! :yourock: I have the time to kick things off but not as much afterwards.

I'm sure we're in for an interesting day at the casinos. I'll be checking in throughout.

Cheers :toast:

Julie

[AnneD]

26. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Welcome back Ozy :hug: And a big thanks for my Valentines :grouphug:


Well, there seems to be little love left between Gov Blanco and the Bush admin. OK, that's not news, but what is news is that she is threatening to block the lease auctions unless the state gets more money to help with wetland restoration and levee reenforcement. The Feds have always got off lightly when it comes to reimbursing the gulf states (as opposed to the reimbursements the western states get). Now considering that Louisiana is the largest producer of offshore oil, that could be problematic for the oil industry and the US consumer. She hasn't played the trump card yet but she's making noise. I am still PO about Sen Landreau, esp since I heard she was with DLC. I hope that is working for her because it sure isn't working for any of the exiles here.

Happy hunting, watch out for the bears(cupid's arrows have no effect on them).

[54anickel]

39. Welcome back Ozy and UIA, and thanks to Julie and UIA for getting

the thread going and to EO for being on standby and for the "Worldly" posts.

Ozy, sounds like you had a great time on your much deserved "down-time". The past week has been a pretty bad news week for the mal-administration. Cheney's latest hunting adventure has been a rather entertaining diversion, though I do feel bad for the sap with a face full of bird-shot - even if he is a sleezy, Funeralgate Repuke. That's gotta hurt! Must be Karma and all....

Welcome back all, was good to "see" Julie again, and adios Marketeers. Been fun and informative (as always), but gotta run. :hi:

[54anickel]

41. DOH!!! And thanks to the Secret Admirers for the Valentine Hearts! I just

got around to checking my inbox. :blush:

Thank you :hug: :grouphug:

[JNelson6563]

64. Cheers to you 54!

:toast:

[EuroObserver]

3. Tokyo: Nikkei225 recovered 1.93%; Topix up 1.06%

Japanese Stocks Rise After Two-Day Drop
(AP) Japanese stocks bounced back Tuesday after a two-day decline, led by gains technology, auto, machinery and banks stocks. The dollar slipped against the yen. The Nikkei 225 index climbed 307.21 points, or 1.93 percent, to finish at 16,184.87 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index had lost 2.3 percent Monday and 1.1 percent on Friday.

The market overcame early losses as investors snapped up issues with good earnings outlooks, traders said.

"Bargain-hunting picked up speed, though sentiment has become sensitive to bad news and volatile trading may continue for awhile," said Shinko Securities strategist Tsuyoshi Segawa.

Machine tool maker Fanuc Ltd. jumped 7.02 percent to 10,060 yen ($85.98) and Advantest Corp. rose 4.93 percent to 14,250 yen ($121.79). Honda Motor Co. gained 0.89 percent to 6,770 yen ($57.86). Security service company Secom Co. picked up 4.83 percent to 5,860 yen ($50.09). Among banks, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. rose 0.79 percent to 891,000 yen ($7,615.38).

The broader TOPIX, which includes all issues on the exchange's first section, was up 17.23 points, or 1.06 percent, to 1,635.24. The Topix fell 42.21 points, or 2.54 percent, on Monday.
...

The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.5900 percent from Monday's close of 1.5550 percent. Its price fell 0.30 point to 100.08. ...more...


Japanese Stocks Edge Lower; Dollar Down
(AP) Japanese stocks edged lower Tuesday during lackluster trading as investors waited for economic growth figures to be released later this week. The dollar was lower against the yen. The Nikkei 225 index declined 43.68 points, or 0.28 percent, to finish morning trading at 15,833.98 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The broader TOPIX, which includes all issues on the TSE's first section, shed 18.35 percent, or 1.13 percent, to 1,599.66 points.

On Monday, the Nikkei shed 42.21 points, or 2.54 percent, to 1,618.01, after falling 1.31 percent on Friday.

Trading has been cautious ahead of Japan's October-December figures on gross domestic product, due Friday, and a lack of new buy signals now that earnings season is almost over.

Among Tuesday's decliners were real estate shares, including Mitsubishi Estate Co. and Sumitomo Realty Co.
...

The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.5800 percent from Monday's close of 1.5550 percent. Its price fell 0.21 point to 100.38. ...more...


Tokyo stocks sag in morning following overnight falls on Wall St.
(Kyodo)...Brokers said worries are spreading that foreign investors, who played a major role in boosting Tokyo shares last year, may be pulling back from buying.

On Tuesday, before the opening of the market, foreign brokerages continued to place a net amount of selling orders for the fifth straight trading day, the longest such period in about nine months.

The last time such net selling orders by foreign brokerages continued for a long term was the period from April 28 to May 18 last year, brokers said.

"There is increasing concern that the supply and demand balance on the domestic market may deteriorate," said Hiroichi Nishi, equities chief at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc., citing a slowdown in foreign investors' buying.

The Tokyo market was also affected by worries over geopolitics following media reports that Iran has resumed small-scale uranium-enrichment work at its Natanz nuclear facility, Nishi said. ...more...


Tokyo stocks open higher, led by gains in automaker issues
(Kyodo) _ Stocks opened higher on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Tuesday as investors scooped up automaker and insurance issues following sell-offs that sent the benchmark Nikkei more than 560 points lower in the past two trading days. In the first 15 minutes of trading, the 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average gained 168.76 points, or 1.06 percent, to 16,046.42. The broader Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues gained 11.81 points, or 0.73 percent, to 1,629.82. The Second Section fell.

In addition to automaker and insurance issues, brokerage, air transport and real estate issues also gained ground. ...more...

[EuroObserver]

8. Tokyo Liquidation Deepens Gold Correction

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Gold sank to its lowest level in five weeks in Asia Tuesday as Japanese investors continued to liquidate long positions on the Tokyo exchange. Easing oil prices, a pause in the recent Mideast geopolitical news flow and expectations of ongoing U.S. rate hikes have seen profit takers slash $40 from gold's quarter century highs of around $575 an ounce early this month.

At 0440 GMT the flagship precious metal was trading at $535.15, down $4 on Monday's New York close and its lowest since Jan. 9. The Tokyo exchange's benchmark gold contract tracked a similar path to reach its Y60 daily loss limit for the second straight day.

Tocom liquidation was spurred by more losses on New York's Comex overnight, combined with a slightly softer Nikkei and U.S. dollar-yen, said a Tokyo-based trader. "Due to top heavy crude oil, the market is getting suspicious about the recent rally in commodity prices and it seems some funds are trying to get rid of their long positions multi-sector," the trader said.
...

At the same time, Tocom's recent gold selling is also linked to expectations the yen could gain against the dollar if Japan ends its loose monetary policy. A higher yen lowers the price of yen-denominated gold futures.
...

Despite the pressures, participants in the region said the sell-off still looks like a short-term reaction to an overextended run-up in the context of an overall uptrend as the broader geopolitical and inflationary concerns persist. "The market is just waiting to see how far this dip can go...people are saying 'I want to buy but at a cheaper level'," the Tokyo trader said.

According to Robert Rennie, senior currency strategist at Australia's Westpac bank, in spot price terms the correction may not have much further to go. "I think what we're seeing is a healthy correction...I'd be surprised if $532 gives way," he said, adding if it does, $522 looms as the next major support level.
...

However, Jonathan Barratt, head of foreign exchange and metals at Sydney-based Tricom, warned if gold breaks below $537 on a daily closing basis, further liquidation could be in store, possibly back to $495. "The drivers are still there but you need to see follow through," Barratt said. "I don't think we're going to go higher unless we see more action on the inflationary front with oil and more geopolitical concerns."
...

Under pressure from gold, other precious metals continued their downward spiral Tuesday. Palladium dipped below the psychological $1,000 mark, to its lowest level in five weeks at $997.50, while platinum posted its lowest since Jan.19 at $268.50.

Silver crept back to $9.05 from its New York close overnight of $9.11, as a modest recovery in the price of flagship base metal copper offset some of gold's cues.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

10. China annual retail sales 'to rise 11%'

(BBC) Chinese retail spending is expected to grow by more than 11% per year to reach 10 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion; £680bn) in 2010, Beijing predicts.

The figure comes as the government is trying to boost domestic spending in a bid to offset the economy's continuing over-reliance upon exports.

Domestic retail spending now accounts for some 33% of Chinese spending, way below the 80% figure seen in the US.

China's trade surplus rose by 47% to $9.49bn in January, Beijing said.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

4. Europe: cautiously positive pending Bernanke signal

Swiss SMI up 0.54% at 7931.54 in Zurich 09:13:26 CET
Xetra Dax 30 opens up 0.3% at 5,773.56 in Frankfurt 09:07 CET
CAC 40 opens up 0.2% at 4,964.57 in Paris 09:02 CET
FTSE 100 opens up 0.4% at 5,815.3 in London 08:01 GMT
FTSE 250 up 0.1% at 9,343.8 in London 08:34 GMT


Bourses boosted by strong results
European bourses were boosted by strong results from France Telecom and Electrolux as the markets await a signal on the direction of US interest rates from the new Federal Reserve chairman. Spread betters in London were calling the FTSE 100, CAC-40, and Xetra Dax indices between 17 lower and 5 points higher, according to Reuters. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.4 per cent to 1,338.10 with the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt up 0.3 per cent at 5,773.56, the CAC-40 in Paris 0.3 per cent ahead at 4,973.81 and the FTSE 100 in London up 0.6 per cent to 5,825.3. ...more...

Cautious start expected for bourses
A cautious start is forecast for European bourses with markets awaiting a signal on the direction of US interest rates from the new Federal Reserve chairman. France Telecom, Electrolux and UBS report results. Spread betters in London were calling the FTSE 100, CAC-40, and Xetra Dax indices between 17 lower and 5 points higher, according to Reuters. ...more...

FTSE set to open flat
LONDON (Reuters) - Top shares are set to open flat on Tuesday, held back by concern over further interest rate rises in the United States, although results from British Land (BLND.L: Quote, Profile, Research) may give direction to the property sector. Financial bookmakers forecast the FTSE 100 <.FTSE> share index will open flat to 3 points higher, having risen 29 points on Monday to 5,793.5.

Dealers said there were nagging worries over the growth of corporate earnings after U.S. Web search giant Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) fell on a report that its shares were overvalued.

But mining stocks could be due a reprieve from recent selling on metals price weakness, if a strong performance by Australian-listed shares overnight is anything to go by, said David Buik of financial bookmakers Cantor Index. "Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research)(RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) and BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) did well in Sydney. I think the sell-off has been overdone," he said. "I wouldn't be surprised if the market ends up in positive territory by the end of the session." ...more...

[EuroObserver]

Europe upbeat on growth, as rate hike seen

BRUSSELS (AFP) - European Union finance chiefs voiced optimism on prospects for Europe's fragile recovery, despite disappointing growth forecasts in recent months. Meanwhile the head of the 12-nation bloc which shares Europe's single currency said he was sure the European Central Bank will take a "responsible" decision on interest rates, widely expected to rise again next month. "I think conditions for a continuing upswing are very favourable," said Austrian Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, as he arrived for regular talks with his eurogroup counterparts.

The EU has been struggling for some time to accelerate recovery from a prolonged slowdown. Last month, the commission said it expects eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by between 0.4 and 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. "We maintain our forecast of growth in 2006, even if there is a difference between our estimates and what we see," said French Finance Minister Thierry Breton after the talks.

EU monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the commission is "moderately optimistic" about the eurozone's growth performance early this year. "For the fourth quarter of 2005 we will maintain more or less our previous estimate but I continue to be moderately optimistic for the first part of 2006," he said.
...

Soaring oil prices continue to cast a cloud over economic growth, both in Europe and worldwide. But Almunia, speaking on his way into the EU talks in Brussels, said he does not expect a further large rise in oil prices, although they remain a risk to the recovery.
...

The European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in December to 2.25 percent to keep inflation in check despite criticism from some EU capitals that that would hurt still fragile growth.
...

The latest estimates of GDP growth in the 25-nation EU and the 12-nation eurogroup of countries sharing Europe's single currency are due to be published on Tuesday. Eurogroup ministers met Monday evening ahead of talks for the full EU meeting on Tuesday.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

6. German economic slowdown hits eurozone

Germany’s economy ground unexpectedly to a halt in the final three months of last year, dragging down the eurozone’s overall performance and casting a cloud over the 2006 outlook. Gross domestic product in Europe’s largest economy was unchanged in the fourth quarter, according to the federal statistics office. The third quarter had seen a 0.6 per cent rise. Economists sought to play down the significance of the latest data, saying that industrial and consumer confidence pointed to a significant rebound at the start of 2006.... The European Central Bank had been braced for weak fourth quarter data, and is still expected to press ahead with a quarter percentage point increase in interest rates, to 2.5 per cent, next month. However, France’s economy also slowed unexpectedly at the end of last year, and the eurozone as a whole grew by just 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter – down from 0.6 per cent in the previous three months, according to figures released by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. The weaker French and German performances were offset by an acceleration in growth in Spain, the Netherlands and Austria. Eurozone GDP rose by 1.3 per cent over the whole of 2005, down from 2.1 per cent in 2004.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

7. Germany's economy treading water

(BBC) The German economy stagnated in the final quarter of 2005, casting doubt on the durability of its nascent economic recovery.

Economic output was flat in the three months to 31 December, official data showed, after positive growth in each of the previous three quarters. On an annualised basis, output was 1% higher than in 2004's final quarter.
...

Analysts are divided over whether talk of sustained economic recovery last year may have been premature. "Just a few weeks ago, the sky seemed to be the limit in Germany," said Andreas Rees, from HVB Group. "However, in fact, the figure is far less upbeat."

But Rainer Guntermann, from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said he still expected the economy to grow between 1.5% and 2% this year. "The interpretation will be that the economy has taken a breather," he said. "It would be wrong to talk about an end to the recovery. The second half of 2005 was better than the first."

...more...

[EuroObserver]

42. German data hits shares

LONDON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The euro stayed close to six-week lows versus the dollar on Tuesday and European shares slipped after news that German growth ground to a halt late last year, and investor sentiment in Europe's largest economy had dipped.

U.S. Treasuries were steady as traders awaited key speeches later this week from new Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, and U.S. crude futures slipped below $61 a barrel.

Data showing euro zone quarterly economic growth halved to 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2005 was as expected, unlike earlier data which showed German growth ground to a halt over the same period.

That was followed by a report from the Mannheim-based ZEW institute that its German economic expectations indicator, based on a survey of 303 analysts and institutional investors, dropped to 69.8 in February from January's 71.0.
...

"...the stagnation in fourth quarter German GDP will be a sobering reminder to the ECB they must proceed very carefully with higher rates from here," said David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns.
...

The FTSEurofirst300 index <.FTEU3> of leading European shares fell 0.35 percent to 1,328.4 points after the ZEW, having earlier touched a fresh 4-1/2 year high of 1,338.99. But equity traders remained optimistic, encouraged by low valuations, heightened merger activity, and reassuring results.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

47. Bourses closed sluggish flat

Swiss SMI down -0.09% at 7882.43 in Zurich 17:30:26 CET
CAC 40 up 0.1% at 4,961.3 in closing exchanges in Paris as France Telecopm advances on restructuring plans: fixed line operator finishes 3% higher at €19.16 17:42 CET
Xetra Dax 30 down -0.1% at 5,749.7 in closing exchanges in Frankfurt 17:38 CET
FTSE 250 down -0.2% at 9,316.1 in closing exchanges in London 16:37 GMT
FTSE 100 slips below the flatline in closing exchanges as energy stocks fall: London ble chips finish down -0.1% at 5,786.5 16:35 GMT

[EuroObserver]

37. More on Qinetiq privatization scandal from George Monbiot

Greed of the highest order and the worst privatisation since rail

(George Monbiot, The Guardian): ... As everyone now knows, Friday's flotation of Qinetiq raised the value of the shareholding acquired by Carlyle, the US investment firm, by around 840%. Carlyle, whose board is graced, among other eminences, by former prime minister John Major, bought its stake at auction in 2002 when the stockmarket had floundered. It paid £42m for a 31% share, which at close of play on Friday was worth around £351m. Last week, it flogged over half its shares. Its chairman, who paid £129,000 for his stake in the company, is now worth £27m, and its chief executive £22m.
...

Lord Drayson's boss, the defence secretary John Reid, claimed that the company is worth so much "because of the value that has been added there" by Carlyle's management. "This is precisely why brought them in." But if the government knew that Carlyle would make so much money, why did it allow the company to buy its stake so cheaply? If it didn't know, then why should we take its counterfactual accountancy seriously? In fact, in 2002 the government was warned by Lord Gilbert and Lord Moonie, who was defence procurement minister when Carlyle bought its stake, that the taxpayer was being shortchanged. Moonie says he was overruled by the Treasury. The government went in with its eyes wide open.

One could argue that much of Qinetiq's value was added not by the brilliance of its directors, or even of its engineers and scientists, but by a huge contract with the Ministry of Defence, signed on the very day (February 28 2003) that Carlyle paid for its stake. The "Long-Term Partnering Agreement", under which Qinetiq manages the government's firing ranges, is worth £5.6bn over 25 years. In fact, with a contract such as this, any one of us could have bought that 31% stake without having to open our wallets: you could borrow the money, at cheap rates, against your guaranteed future income. Carlyle admits that it underwrote part of the capital by refinancing its revenues on the basis of the contract. The Guardian has also reported that Qinetiq might have left behind some potential liabilities during the flotation: the government may have to carry the costs of cleaning up some land it has been using.
...

In the past, ministers have sought to justify deals such as this on the grounds that corporate profits are good for the exchequer. But they would struggle to apply this argument to the privatisation of Qinetiq. Carlyle bought its stake through a series of "special purpose vehicles" based in Guernsey, which means that it will not be paying tax on the sale of its shares. It says that the government knew it would be using the tax haven before the deal was done. In this respect, the Qinetiq story has some parallels with the sale of the Inland Revenue's properties to Mapeley - an investment company registered in Bermuda.

...more...

[54anickel]

43. U.S. faces WTO trouble

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/3656987.html

The European Union said Monday it may reimpose sanctions on as much as $4 billion a year in American goods after the World Trade Organization upheld a ruling that the United States failed to end an illegal tax rebate for exporters.

A three-judge panel in Geneva on Monday rejected a U.S. appeal of a Sept. 30 ruling, saying the U.S. violated the WTO's order to scrap the tax credit immediately. Congress had instead voted to phase out the measure over a two-year period ending in 2006.

"The U.S. now has three months to act to avoid the re-imposition of retaliatory measures," EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson said in a statement from Brussels, Belgium. "The EU will not accept a system of tax benefits which give U.S. exporters, including Boeing, an unfair advantage."

Congress voted in 2004 to repeal $50 billion in export credits for companies such as Boeing, Caterpillar and Microsoft that were ruled illegal, and replaced them with a cut in tax rates for domestic manufacturers. That measure still grandfathered export credits for long-term sales contracts on items such as aircraft and allowed for the two-year phaseout.

The EU returned to the WTO to protest each of those provisions and won on both counts Monday.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

CONFLICTS, CONFUSION, CLEAR VISIONS AND COUNTDOWNS

Believe It or Not

For the longest time, those who contended that the gold market was rigged (the Gold Bugs) were looked upon with disdain – almost exclusively – by the mainstream media and mainstream financial outlets alike. The Gold Bugs' claims were widely dismissed as a chimera - concoctions by aggrieved speculators with active imaginations or too much time on their hands.

This widely held mainstream view was challenged recently when the brokerage arm of one of Europe’s most venerable institutions – Cheuvreux, the brokerage arm of French banking giant Credit Agricole - published a 56 page research report that not only outlines, but then throws its substantial support behind the central thesis of the gold bug’s “conspiracy against gold” theory – that prices have long been rigged by Western Central Banks.

-cut-

Time Is Of The Essence

The clock is ticking folks. Next month, the Federal Reserve is due to discontinue reporting M3 money supply (and related) statistics. They would have us believe that it’s their intention to save us a few nickels. Many in the mainstream are as reluctant to see this ruse as they were to recognize gold rigging or corrupted inflation data.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Roland99]

11. Thanks, ozy. I added that bit to my thread in GD on M3

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=410066&mesg_id=410066

[Danascot]

23. Is it paranoia if it's real?

"They (the so-called Plunge Protection Team) subsidize the U.S. stock market when it sags to a major chart support area, which dare not break least weakened public confidence cause a crash. And they know when gold has risen to an overbought level, so they sell it short. They usually make money maneuvering for their de facto CEO, the U.S. government...They also usually make money on their gold shorts, by buying back after substantial falls. THERE IS NO FREE MARKET. U.S. government prevents markets having healthy adjustments, which correct inefficiencies ..."


http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0964EAB0%2D94B4%2D4E81%2DB523%2DC20C118A98C9%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[Roland99]

31. So I'm not just imagining things.....and... wow...$2,000/oz. gold?

[ozymandius]

9. Today's Reports

Feb 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan
Briefing Forecast 1.0%
Market Expects 0.9%
Prior 0.7%

Feb 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jan
Briefing Forecast 0.8%
Market Expects 0.8%
Prior 0.2%

Feb 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.5%

[UpInArms]

21. 8:30 Reports:

8:30am 02/14/06 U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES UP 8.8% VS. JAN. 2005

8:30am 02/14/06 U.S. JAN. AUTOMOBILE SALES UP 3%

8:30am 02/14/06 U.S. JAN. GASOLINE SALES UP 5.5%

8:30am 02/14/06 U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS UP 1.8%

8:30am 02/14/06 U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 2.2% VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

8:30am 02/14/06 U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES RISE 2.3% VS. 0.9% EXPECTED

U.S. Jan. retail sales rise 2.3% vs. 0.9% expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5D72AF48%2DE10E%2D443E%2D95F4%2D5FDC0D295078%7D&dateid=38762%2E3543551852%2D860491941&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 2.3% in January as gasoline and motor vehicle sales strengthened, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Excluding the 3% gain in auto sales, seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 2.2% for the month. Overall, retail sales were the strongest since May 2004. Gasoline sales climbed 5.5%. Retail sales were much stronger than the 0.9% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Retail sales excluding autos were also far stronger than the 0.8% expected.

Whee! I certainly wish that I had seen some of that enthusiastic buying this past weekend!

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. consumer spending slows in latest week

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-14T135802Z_01_NAT002000_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-REDBOOK-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers spent at a slightly slower pace in the second week in February, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales at major retailers rose by 3.0 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Feb. 11, said Redbook Research, an independent company.

Sales for the month of February are running 0.3 percent above the same period in January, Redbook said.

...a bit more...

I would say that it "slowed" more than that :eyes:

[EuroObserver]

40. That there "Gasoline sales climbed 5.5%"

, for example, would be: gasoline prices rose somewhat more than this but actual gallons of consumption fell?

[UpInArms]

32. Inventories Report:

10:00am 02/14/06 U.S. DEC. RETAIL INVENTORIES INCREASE 0.7%

10:00am 02/14/06 U.S. DEC. INVENTORY-SALES RATIO FALLS TO RECORD LOW 1.25

10:00am 02/14/06 U.S. DEC. BUSINESS SALES RISE 1.2%, MOST IN A YEAR

10:00am 02/14/06 U.S. DEC. BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.7% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8B6883FF%2DAA29%2D44E2%2DAEC3%2D50321CE49927%7D&dateid=38762%2E4167377199%2D860507531&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. business inventories tightened in December as the 1.2% increase in sales outpaced inventory gains of 0.7%, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. It was the biggest increase in sales in a year. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell back to the record low of 1.25 reached in October. In November, business inventories increased 0.6%, revised up from the previous 0.5% estimate. For all of 2005, business sales increased 7% while inventories rose 4.3%. Much of the data in the inventory report had been released earlier. The one new bit of new news was the 0.7% increase in retail inventories.

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 90.60 Change +0.04 (+0.04%)

Dollar Traders Await Bernanke's First Words

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/6705_dollar_traders_await_bernankes_first.html

The dollar was mixed on the day, losing slightly against the Euro in midday trading after hitting a six week high against the European single currency in the morning. The U.S. single currency additionally lost against the yen while making headway against the pound sterling and swiss franc.

The session’s fluctuations were kept in a tight range as economic data was nil in the U.S. while traders continued to remain on the sideline anticipating Chairman Bernanke’s first words as the incumbent. More dovish statements by the newly positioned official could signal the end of the current tightening cycle, while more hawkish statements would revive carry interest in the U.S. denomination. Nonetheless, advance retail sales figures will not be ignored tomorrow with many estimating another strong showing by the individual consumer. Heading into the afternoon, the greenback is trading at 1.3061 compared to Friday’s close of 1.3066.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Strong Retail Sales Expected To Continue Dollar Strength

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/6715_tomorrows_economic_releases_strong_retail_sales_expected_to.html

U.S. Advanced Retail Sales (JAN) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.9%
Previous: 0.7%

Outlook: Retail sales in the U.S. are expected to grow 0.9 percent in January marking expansion for the fifth consecutive month. Excluding automobiles, the rate of expansion in sales is estimated to be 0.8 percent. Although purchasing of autos was heavier this January than the same time a year ago and higher than December, a large volume of sales is attributed to bulk orders from corporate clients. As a result, increased auto sales will have a minimal effect on overall retail spending as the bulk corporate orders are not reflected in retail sales data. Interestingly, much of the growth in retail spending is likely to result from the use of gift cards received over the holiday season. In 2005, the value of gift cards purchased by customers was 6.6 percent higher than the previous year. Because the cards are not counted as sales until they are used, retailers are likely to see a jump in sales volume in January. Supporting the case for increased retail sales is the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index which indicates that consumers are more willing to spend in coming months on the prospect of increased employment and higher wages. Economists will be watching to see if this spending exuberance continues through the year as growth in housing prices slows and detracts from consumers’ expendable income.

Previous: In December, U.S. retail sales increased 0.7 percent, suggesting that growth in spending was slower than expected. A surge in gasoline prices going into the holiday season had considerable effect on retail spending. As fuel costs rose, wholesale prices began to climb and customers were deterred by unusually high prices at the retail level. Additionally, the high oil prices forced consumers to pay more at the pump and left them with less to spend at shopping centers. Also having an effect on December sales figures was heavy purchasing of store gift cards. Revenue gains from gift cards are not realized until the card is used, which means that sales revenue took a hit on December balance sheets and will not be seen until cards are used by their recipients in 2006. Weak sales in December dragged down quarterly growth, reflects the weakest holiday consumption in several years.

...more...

[ozymandius]

14. Oil Prices Dip on Crude Stock Expectations

SINGAPORE - Oil prices extended declines Tuesday, dropping below $61 a barrel amid expectations that a U.S. supply report will show higher crude inventories.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 43 cents to $60.81 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. The contract had lost 60 cents Monday to $61.24 a barrel, the lowest settlement this year.

-cut-

Traders predicted the U.S. Energy Department's weekly petroleum supply snapshot, due Wednesday, would likely show climbing oil stocks for the seventh straight week.

-cut-

Traders remained concerned about the international dispute over
Iran's nuclear activities and to a lesser extent unrest in Nigeria, but oil futures have slipped on reports of lagging demand and bulging supplies.

more...

[UpInArms]

52. March Crude @ $60.20 bbl

12:46pm 02/14/06 MARCH CRUDE FALLS $1.04, OR 1.7%, TO $60.20/BRL

[UpInArms]

15. US on track to hit debt ceiling mid-Feb--official

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-13T223818Z_01_N13260186_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-DEBT-UPDATE-2.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is on track to hit its debt ceiling by mid-February, Treasury Department spokesman Tony Fratto said on Monday.

Asked at a press briefing when Treasury will reach the statutory $8.18 trillion debt limit, Fratto said, "The middle of the month."

"We clearly are approaching the point where Treasury will have to determine the instruments necessary to avoid slamming the top of the debt limit," he added.

<snip>

The debt limit was last raised in November 2004 by $800 billion to its current level.

Lawmakers of both parties have expressed concerns about raising the debt limit with a budget deficit the administration projects to reach a record high $423 billion in 2006.

Meanwhile, Republican conservatives in the House, who have been clamoring for significant reductions in domestic spending while maintaining tax cuts, are hoping to link an upcoming debt-limit increase bill to a push for reforming budget procedures.

<snip>

A budget blueprint passed by Congress last spring envisioned a $781 billion debt limit increase. If passed, total borrowing authority will have risen by more than $3 trillion during Bush's presidency.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. KB Home reports higher cancellations, lower orders

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-14T123356Z_01_N1462949_RTRIDST_0_CONSTRUCTION-KBHOME.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Home builder KB Home (KBH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said in a regulatory filing it is experiencing lower orders and more cancellations, and may have to revise its revenue estimates for the year if the trend continues.

"In the first two months of the year, we have experienced an increase in home order cancellations and a decline in net orders for new homes when compared to the same period last year," the company said in a Feb. 10 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

"If the current trends do not improve, we may be required to moderate our revenue guidance for fiscal year 2006," it said.

...more...

[54anickel]

38. Bush sees safe landing for housing

Oh crap, this is like Bush saying "heckuvajob". It's the kiss of death - we're screwed

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060214/BUSINESS06/602140351/1019/BUSINESS

WASHINGTON -- The high-flying housing market should make a safe landing by gradually losing altitude, the White House suggested Monday.

Housing has been an important source of power for the economy as home sales hit record highs for five years running. Low mortgage rates were a factor behind brisk activity.

"A gradual slowing of homebuilding appears more likely than a sharp drop because the elevated level of house prices will sustain homebuilding as a profitable enterprise for some time," President George W. Bush's annual economic report to Congress says.

The direction of the housing market is closely watched. Most private analysts also expect gradual moderation. If the housing market were to collapse, it would pose grave dangers to the country's overall economic health.

more...

[AnneD]

51. What is the highest level of education has he had...

Masters in Business Admin. How many business' has he successfully run...NONE. You are right...we are so screwed.:eyes:

[UpInArms]

17. Wall St. knew of Enron's woes early, defense says

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-13T235515Z_01_N13355239_RTRIDST_0_ENRON-TRIAL-PICTURE.XML

HOUSTON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Speculation about Enron's troubles were swirling on Wall Street long before the company reported a massive loss triggering its downfall, hardly the sign of an elaborate scheme to deceive investors, a defense lawyer argued on Monday.

The assertion struck at the heart of the government's argument that top Enron executives for months hid the company's myriad problems plaguing the once high-flying energy company that spiraled into bankruptcy in late 2001.

As the trial entered its third week, former Enron CEO Kenneth Lay's lawyer Michael Ramsey pointed to analyst reports that suggested Wall Street knew of troubles brewing at Enron well before it announced its weak third quarter performance in 2001.

Sparring with prosecution witness Mark Koenig, Enron's former investor relations chief, Ramsey also replayed a tape of the earnings conference call in which Lay described the company's quarterly loss of more than $600 million, a $1.01 billion write-down in asset values and reduction in investors equity of $1.2 billion.

Ramsey said one analyst had speculated the company would take an even larger asset write-down on its struggling water and broadband Internet business, and that the company's stock rose after the news.

...more...

[UpInArms]

58. Enron's Skilling defended Fastow's deals - witness

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-14T180316Z_01_N14240099_RTRIDST_0_ENRON-TRIAL-PICTURE.XML

HOUSTON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Former Enron Corp. CEO Jeffrey Skilling was a hands-on boss who kept a close eye on Enron's business and defended side deals the company used to prop up profits, a former top executive testified on Tuesday.

The testimony by Kenneth Rice, a former member of Enron management's inner circle and friend of Skilling's for more than a decade, came in the third week of the trial against Skilling and former CEO Kenneth Lay for conspiracy and fraud at the company that was once the seventh largest in the United States.

"Mr. Skilling was very engaged in the business, he was very hands-on. Almost any transaction of any size we would bring to Mr. Skilling to get his approval," Rice said under questioning by prosecutor Sean Berkowitz.

<snip>

The partnerships run by Fastow have been blamed for hiding billions of dollars in debt in deals that pumped up Enron's profits.

Rice said he complained about Fastow's partnerships to Skilling, but was rebuffed.

"He felt it was an important thing for Enron to do," Rice said.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

18. Bush was Beneficiary in $1 Million in Ohio Coin Theft Scheme

$1 Million Theft Charged in Ohio in Coin Scandal

TOLEDO, Ohio, Feb. 13 — A coin dealer and prominent Republican fund-raiser was charged Monday with stealing at least $1 million from a state investment in rare coins that has embroiled Republicans in scandal during an election year.

The 53 charges against the coin dealer, Tom Noe, conclude a 10-month investigation by state and federal prosecutors into the $50 million rare-coin investment Mr. Noe managed for the state insurance fund for injured workers.

<snip>

His lawyer has acknowledged a shortfall of up to $13 million of the money Mr. Noe invested for the Ohio Bureau of Workers' Compensation.

One of the charges in Monday's indictment accuses Mr. Noe of stealing at least $1 million. The state attorney general has accused him of stealing up to $6 million.

Mr. Noe, 51, already faced charges of using colleagues and associates to funnel $45,000 illegally to President Bush's re-election campaign. The new counts include forgery, theft and money laundering.

...more...

[wordpix]

55. another Criminal for Bush Repug!

[UpInArms]

20. Audit of FEMA: Waste, fraud cost millions

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3657233.html

WASHINGTON - Waste and fraud marked the federal government's assistance programs for Hurricane Katrina victims, with 10,000 mobile homes going unused and scattered cases of evacuees spending emergency money on nude dancing in Houston, tattoos, casino gambling and a diamond engagement ring, according to an audit released Monday.

About 5,000 of the 11,000 people who got $2,000 debit cards from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, at Reliant Center and the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston and two other shelters in Texas, incorrectly got additional $2,000 credits after applying by telephone or the Internet, according to government findings.

But losses from misspent debit funds — the list of purchases also included alcoholic beverages, adult erotica, condoms and a $1,300 pistol — were peanuts compared to the amount of money FEMA wasted on contracts and housing payments, according to a report by the Department of Homeland Security's inspector general, Richard Skinner.

FEMA signed contracts worth $9.2 billion for hurricane relief, and experts who testified at a Senate hearing Monday said it was impossible to estimate how much had been wasted or stolen.

"We found weak or non-existent controls in the process that (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) used to approve assistance payments that leave the federal government vulnerable to fraud and abuse," said Gregory Kutz, an investigative auditor at the Government Accountability Office.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. US Treasuries fall on January jump in retail sales

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-14T134013Z_01_NYG000132_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-RETAIL-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended earlier losses on Tuesday on stronger-than-expected retail sales in January, which fueled views the Federal Reserve is not yet finished raising short-term interest rates.

Retail sales rose 2.3 percent last month, easily exceeding economists' expectations of 0.8 percent growth and December's downwardly revised 0.4 percent growth.

Excluding auto sales, the January jump in sales was 2.2 percent, compared with economists' expectations of 0.7 percent growth and December's 0.2 percent growth.

Ten-year notes <US10YT=RR> fell 9/32 for a yield of 4.620 percent, compared with 4.583 percent on Monday.

Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> eased 1/32 for a yield of 4.703 percent, compared with 4.678 percent on Monday.

[UpInArms]

45. Treasury prices sell off on data - yield curve still inverted

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC432D0D7%2D45B8%2D4653%2D9687%2DBF06183F7FB6%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw&print=true&dist=printTop

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices sold off Tuesday, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a three-month intraday high, after data showing strong consumer and business sales triggered worries that the Federal Reserve will need to keep lifting rates.

The benchmark 10-year note last was down 8/32 at 99-5/32 with a yield ($TNX) 46.02, +0.19, +0.4% ) of 4.607%, up from 4.586% in late trade Monday. Shortly after the data, the yield struck a 3-month high of 4.624%.

The yield curve remained inverted. The 2-year yield stood at 4.695%, above the 10-year yield of 4.607% and the yield on the newly-revived 30-year long bond ($TYX)45.77, +0.18, +0.4% ) of 4.578%. The yield curve has been inverted since last Thursday's highly successful revival of the 30-year long bond, which attracted unexpectedly robust demand from foreign central banks.

There is sharp debate about the significance of the inverted yield curve, which effectively removes the incentive for making long-term loans and which some economists believe signals recession.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Stage remains set for the indices to open higher, as futures indications remain comfortably above fair value. Nonetheless, while strong retail sales data suggest that consumer spending is clearly back on track and oil prices at their lowest levels of the year also bode well for investors, the market remains on Fed watch for tomorrow's testimony by Bernanke, as it is presumed Bernanke will be keen on establishing his inflation-fighting credibility.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade holds relatively steady despite strong retail sales data, still indicating the cash market will open on an upbeat note. Jan. retail sales surged 2.3% (consensus 0.9%) and sales, ex-autos, rose 2.2%; both were much stronger than expected, underscoring that consumer spending remains strong. Bonds, though, which were under modest pressure before the data have weakened; the 10-yr note is now off 9 ticks to yield 4.61%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures versus fair value suggests stocks will open modestly higher. Oil prices falling for a third straight session may be helping the market regain some upside traction following yesterday's broad-based decline. A report due out at 8:30 ET that may show the largest gain in monthly retail sales since July may also be acting as an early source of buying support.

[UpInArms]

27. April Gold @ $545.70 oz - March Silver @ $9.245 oz

9:36am 02/14/06 APRIL GOLD CLIMBS $3.60 TO $545.70/OZ IN MORNING TRADING

9:36am 02/14/06 MARCH SILVER RISES 12.7C, OR 1.4%, TO $9.245/OZ

[UpInArms]

53. April Gold @ $550 oz

12:50pm 02/14/06 APRIL GOLD TAPS $550 HIGH, UP $7.90/OZ, OR 1.5%, IN NY

[UpInArms]

28. 9:43 mixing up the numbers

Dow 10,917.13 +24.81 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,240.32 +0.51 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,261.97 -0.89 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.612 +0.29 (+0.63%)

NYSE Volume 154,106,000
Nasdaq Volume 132,550,000

[UpInArms]

29. Senate Budget panel cancels Snow hearing

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-14T143250Z_01_WAT004838_RTRIDST_0_CONGRESS-SNOW-POSTPONEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The Senate Budget Committee hearing scheduled for Tuesday with Treasury Secretary John Snow as a witness was canceled, Committee spokesman Jeff Turcotte said.

The hearing was canceled, Turcotte said, because the Senate had scheduled a series of votes on tax legislation.

Guess we'll be hearing about all those glorious tax cuts soon :eyes:

[UpInArms]

48. Senate debates tax-cut priorities

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B399EA42A%2D71FE%2D4491%2DBB75%2DEE910EE5E458%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Senate began a series of largely symbolic votes Tuesday morning that aim to clarify which tax cuts should be at the center of legislation to provide $70 billion worth of tax relief over the next five years.

The Senate and House have each passed their own versions of the legislation. Negotiators must now iron out differences in an effort to produce a final bill.
The Senate is voting on a series of non-binding resolutions that aim to tell Senate negotiators which items to emphasize when they enter talks with their House counterparts.

The debate comes as Democrats seek to urge negotiators to stand by the Senate bill's core provision to renew a patch designed to protect millions of middle-class taxpayers from the encroaching alternative minimum tax, or AMT.

The House bill makes no provision for extending the AMT "patch," which expired at the end of 2005. Congressional Republican leaders have said they'll seek to ensure that the final bill adheres more closely to the House version, which instead lower tax rates on capital gains and dividends that would otherwise expire at the end of 2008 until 2010.

House Republican leaders have called for passing AMT relief separately, a move opposed by most Democrats as well as Republican deficit hawks.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Fund Manager optimism pulls back over Fed uncertainty - fearing "R" word

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB184F617%2D82B2%2D4A3F%2DA4B0%2D0E6B1BA2CC11%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw&print=true&dist=printTop

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Renewed uncertainty over monetary policy with a new Federal Reserve chief has fund managers turning more bearish on stocks even as managers cut their cash stakes to five-year lows in January, according to a monthly fund manager survey compiled by Merrill Lynch.

"There is an unmistakable change of tone in the survey this month," Merrill noted in the survey, the first since Ben Bernanke took over as chairman of the Fed.

Half the managers polled think the Fed has not finished tightening, and nearly two-thirds see the yield curve remaining flat or growing more inverted over the next year.

Average cash balances among 221 funds have risen to 4.1% from 3.5% the previous month.

Meanwhile, managers have a reduced appetite for risk and fewer reported they are confident the U.S. economy won't slip into recession, to 74% from 86% in January.

...more...

[54anickel]

33. Fostering a Culture of Debt

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=51501

Over the last two decades, departing Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has affected many people in many ways. Few people understand the impact he has had on their lives - how he has helped transform a culture.

After eighteen years as the world's most powerful central banker, he has changed the way people think about money, credit, and most importantly, he has changed the way people view debt.

Debt, a pariah to generations following the Great Depression, has been embraced by recent generations.

Recent generations, that is, who are now far enough removed from the tragedy of the 1930s that history's lessons of excess credit and debt have been forgotten. Debt, always a tempting seductress, has been raised to new levels of respectability under the tutelage of Mr. Greenspan.

snip>

A once dynamic and innovative economy has become increasingly dependent on borrowing money to fund consumer spending. This spending, in turn, produces economic growth and most accept this condition as just another reality - another fact of life.

snip to include one of the charts>

more...

[54anickel]

35. Trade Deficits and Asset Bubbles (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060213-mon.html#anchor0

Most believe that the dollar holds the key to global rebalancing. Academics are especially adamant on this point, with many maintaining that it will take at least a 20-30% drop in the greenback to “fix” the US external imbalance. Yet that remedy doesn’t square with the raison d’être of America’s trade deficit. The problem is concentrated on the import side of the equation, driven largely by the excesses of asset-dependent consumption. That means higher real interest rates are likely to be far more important than a weaker dollar in resolving America’s external imbalances.

The latest US trade report says it all. In December 2005, imports of foreign goods and services ($177.2 billion) were fully 59% larger than exports ($111.5 billion). Moreover, it turns out that a -$70.6 billion deficit on goods was cushioned by a $4.9 billion surplus on services. Within the goods component of the December trade gap, the disparity between imports ($149.6 billion) and exports ($79.0 billion) was even larger. This underscores the daunting arithmetic of a turnaround to America’s external imbalance. With goods imports fully 89% larger than goods exports, even if exports grow at twice the rate of imports, the deficit on goods will remain essentially unchanged. In other words, just from an arithmetic point of view, it will be exceedingly difficult for the United States to export its way out of its trade deficit.

The export solution also suffers from an even more glaring deficiency -- the hollowing of Smokestack America. With manufacturing capacity and jobs moving steadily offshore over the past 20-plus years, the US simply lacks the wherewithal to spark an export-led turnaround in foreign trade. In all too many cases, the loss of US manufacturing prowess has been a permanent, or structural, erosion. The list of “lost industries” -- from steel and autos to textiles and even computers -- speaks of a competitive dynamic that makes it all but impossible for the US to recapture its once leading market share as an industrial powerhouse. As I noted recently, that leaves the US on the outside looking in when one of its formerly large trading partners like Japan springs back to life (see my 10 February dispatch, “Rebalancing Made in Japan?”).

I am certain there is a level of the dollar that might reverse this process. But I think it is well in excess of the 20-30% decline that many believe is the answer to America’s massive trade imbalance. Given the structural tilt to the global playing field, my guess is that in order to make a meaningful difference to America’s trade dynamics on both the export and import sides of the equation, the US currency would have to be sustained at an exchange rate on the order of 30-50% below present levels on a broad trade-weighted basis. And the key word here is “sustained.” A trading blip will not give US exporters the confidence -- or the economics -- they need to go back into business. Needless to say, the odds are quite low that either the US or other global authorities would accept such a dollar-collapse scenario as a palliative for America’s trade deficit. Largely for those reasons, I think it is safe to conclude that a weaker dollar is not the answer for the US external imbalance.

snip>

This takes us to the most controversial piece of the debate -- the so-called real interest conundrum. In my view, led by the world’s major central banks at the short end of the curve, and augmented by the conundrum at the longer end of the curve, the super-liquidity cycle has played the decisive role in taking asset markets to excess over the past decade. First with equities, then bonds, and now property, American consumers, in particular, have come to take excessive rates of asset appreciation as an entitlement. As I see it, the Federal Reserve played a critical role in fostering this outcome -- first by condoning the equity bubble in the late 1990s and then by setting up the now infamous serial-bubble syndrome by slashing its nominal policy rate to the rock-bottom 1% level once the equity bubble burst. The overall level of real interest rates was artificially depressed throughout this period -- sustaining the rise of asset-dependent consumption and a concomitant overhang of excess imports.

more...

[54anickel]

36. JOB DISINFORMATION FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES

http://www.creators.com/opinion_show.cfm?columnsName=pcr

On Friday, Feb. 3, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the nonfarm payroll jobs report for January. New York Times reporter Vikas Bajaj wrote an upbeat news story, obviously based on a Labor Department press release rather than any study of the BLS report. If the rosy view of Ethan Harris, chief economist for Lehman Brothers, is typical, Wall Street has no more idea than Bajaj of what the jobs report really says.

The export and import-competitive sectors of the U.S. economy have been tanking for a long time. To keep the story manageable, let's just go back to January 2001. The latest BLS payroll jobs report says that January 2006 is now the 61st month that the U.S. economy has been unable to create any jobs except ones in domestic non-tradable services, most of which are low-paid.

Of the 194,000 private-sector jobs created in January, 46,000 were in construction (and most likely went to Mexican immigrants, both legal and illegal) and 136,000 were in domestic services: Financial activities (essentially credit agencies) account for 21,000. Administrative and waste services account for 17,600. Health care and social assistance account for 37,500. Waiters, waitresses and bartenders account for 31,000. Wholesalers account for 15,100.

There were 7,000 new jobs in manufacturing in January, but the total number of manufacturing jobs in January 2006 is 48,000 less than in January 2005. Over the past five years, millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost. At the rate of 7,000 new manufacturing jobs per month, the lost manufacturing jobs over the past five years would not be regained for 34 years.

Does anyone remember when reporters were curious? In his rosy jobs report, Vikas Bajaj does let it out of the bag that "economists estimate that the nation needs to add roughly 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth." That translates into 1,800,000 new jobs per year to stay even with population. Over the past 61 months 9,150,000 new jobs were necessary in order to prevent population growth from pushing up the unemployment rate.

snip>

Gentle reader, the politicians, the media and the corporations are all lying to you.

more...

[AnneD]

56. Preach brother preach...

:applause: very good article about the true jobs numbers. Thank goodness we have this thread to keep us informed with the truth. You guys are the best and articles like this just prove to me what a great thing we have going here. :loveya:

[54anickel]

34. About those chocolate rations -

RISING PRICES COULD FOIL VALENTINE'S DAY SWEETS

http://www.nypost.com/business/63475.htm

That's the tune your sweetheart may be singing as everything from inflation and Hurricane Katrina to civil war in West Africa are sending chocolate prices rising and sales falling this Valentine's Day.

"We're getting annihilated on costs," Tom Ward, president of Kansas City, Mo.-based candymaker Russell Stover, told The Post. "Everything's almost double. Our largest expense now is nuts, because we use so many. Pecans have nearly doubled to $4.60 a pound from $2.75."

snip>

"Chocolate manufacturers have to pay up if futures keep going up," she says, citing the $1,350- to $1,625-per-ton range in the Nybot's May futures contract.

Brazil's diversion of most of its sugar crop to domestic ethanol production is squeezing supplies, too. Hurricane Katrina knocked out two sugar refineries that supply Russell Stover's Texas plant and sent the company to the cash market.

Because of U.S. sugar subsidies that protect domestic producers, prices are 200 percent higher than futures — 24 cents to 28 cents a pound, versus today's Nybot price of 17.5 cents, according to Luis Rangel, vice president of commodities at Fimat.

more...

[UpInArms]

44. 12:03 YEEHAW! 11,000!!!!

Dow 11,012.86 +120.54 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 2,256.62 +16.81 (+0.75%)
S&P 500 1,272.87 +10.01 (+0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 4.602 +0.19 (+0.41%)

NYSE Volume 1,057,107,000
Nasdaq Volume 814,628,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6509C770%2D951A%2D4D6C%2D9C11%2DD8F00A8E40FF%7D&dateid=38762%2E4994966204%2D860530132&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Dow industrials ($INDU) 11,018.07, +125.75, +1.2% ) surged above the 11,000 mark in intraday trading for the first time since Jan. 12, boosted by strong January retail sales data a drop in crude prices. The Dow was last up 120 points at 11,012. The last close above 11,000 was on Jan. 11, when the blue chip barometer closed at a 4 1/2-year high of 11,043.

[Roland99]

46. WTF?!?

[Maeve]

50. Can't you just feel the LOVE???????

Oil, shmoil, we've got money to burn! :eyes:

And thanks to my Secret Admirer for the DU heart! :loveya:

I figure it's one of you'uns in the SWT, cuz I hardly post anywhere else anymore.

[AnneD]

57. Same here....

thanks to my secret admirer :loveya:.

Maeve, the love on WS lasts only as long as the profits hold before the weekend. Remember if Valentine's Day were listed on the exchange-it would be abbreviated as VD...and who wants that.

[UpInArms]

59. same here, Maeve and AnneD!

The love on WS is absolutely astounding!

and :blush: thanks to my secret admirers, too :hi:

[Maeve]

62. LOL! AnneD, my daughter was confused by a pet shop sign

It said it had "for sale, toy & STD" and she only thought of one meaning for "STD" (good ol' health class!)

I had to point out they were selling various sizes of poodles....

[AnneD]

65. ER UH....

:blush: I'd be thinking the same thing. Sometimes there is a down side to Nursing. My daughter tried to make one of my special recipes...only to discover that the card was written with standard Nursing abbreviations. :blush:

[54anickel]

49. Hedge Funds Bring Capital, Anxiety to India

Is it just me, or does this author seem to be rather Naive? Maybe I'm just an old curmudgeon.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mukherjee&sid=afvior_8qw3I

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- As hedge funds from across the world shower riches on Indian stock markets, all that the country's central bank can worry about is how to stop them.

Without hedge funds the benchmark Mumbai Sensex probably wouldn't have scaled the peak of 10,000 as effortlessly as it did last week. The Sensex surged to a new record of 10,173.25 yesterday, a 52 percent gain from a year earlier.

M. Damodaran, chairman of Securities and Exchange Board of India, or Sebi, told me in Singapore yesterday that 48 percent of the so-called foreign institutional investment that has taken place in Indian markets has been through offshore participatory notes, the only instrument legally open to hedge funds.

That compares with 35 percent at the end of February 2005, and 26 percent in September 2003, when Sebi, the regulator, began compiling monthly data on the contracts.

P-notes, as the derivatives are called, are issued to those overseas investors who aren't eligible to buy stocks directly in India by those that are. The first group includes mostly hedge funds. The latter category comprises international investment banks such as Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG that are registered as foreign institutional investors in India.

snip>

It's laughable to think hedge funds are entering India with a grand conspiracy to destabilize the economy, just as it's erroneous to think that without them there wouldn't have been an Asian currency crisis in 1997. Rather than thinking of draconian measures to resist ``hot money,'' it's time India welcomed it with confidence.

more...

[AnneD]

60. I was following the article intently.....

until I got to 'sensex'...then I lost it.:spray: Sorry, I am sure the Mumbai aka Bombay aka Bollywood is probably the one place in India where there is sensex.:rofl:
For a nation as large and as old as it is...there is a naivety and simplicity about many things. That is part of the charm....and the frustration. With their economy finally kicking into high gear, there is potential for great wealth/poverty. Already there are enormous cultural tsunamis on the horizon as a result of their changing economy. They are new money, we are old money. You are speaking from a familiarity. Nothing curmudgeon about that.

[Roland99]

66. When's the last time a entire worldwide economic collapse happened?

The fall of Rome?

[UpInArms]

54. Greenspan in memoir talks with NY publishers - $1 Million worth of crapola

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-02-13T185153Z_01_N13254213_RTRUKOC_0_US-GREENSPAN.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Alan Greenspan is in talks with major publishers about writing a memoir, which could net the Delphic former central banker more than $1 million, sources familiar with his proposal said on Monday.

Greenspan is represented by Washington-based lawyer Robert Barnett, who negotiated an $8 million advance for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton with Simon & Schuster and a $12 million deal for former President Bill Clinton's memoir, published by Random House imprint Alfred A. Knopf.

"Alan Greenspan was one of the most revered and successful public figures of our time, and there are many who are anxiously awaiting what he wants to say," Barnett told Reuters.

One Random House executive confirmed the publisher was among those looking at Greenspan's proposal.

Greenspan retired at the end of January after 18 1/2 years as Federal Reserve chairman. He became a household name for playing a key role during America's longest economic expansion in the 1990s.

...more...

:banghead:

[AnneD]

61. Now we are just getting silly......

The man was hard enough to under verbaly, and they want me to buy a copy of that 'dark matter'. They last thing he did that was interesting was play with a big band. Thanks but no thanks....

He might want to rush that book through and cash the check before his successful economic expansion hits the fan.

[UpInArms]

63. 2:31 EST Markets giddy with all the love!

Dow 11,037.44 +145.12 (+1.33%)
Nasdaq 2,265.53 +25.72 (+1.15%)
S&P 500 1,277.07 +14.21 (+1.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.616 +0.33 (+0.72%)

NYSE Volume 1,746,877,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,309,426,000

2:00 pm : Range-bound trading persists but buyers remain in control of the action. Aside from strength in aluminum, steel, paper and chemicals, gold futures closing up 1.2% at $548.70/ounce has also been a source of buying support behind the 2.0% surge in Materials. Thirty out of 31 of the sector's components are trading higher, as respective gains of 3.3% and 1.9% for Alcoa (AA 31.23 +0.99) and DuPont (DD 40.90 +0.75) continue to help the Dow outpace the S&P and Nasdaq to the upside.DJ30 +116.78 NASDAQ +17.56 SP500 +10.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1035/1877/1.17 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1097/2123/1.15 bln

1:30 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. While falling oil prices and strong retail sales have provided much of the support behind today's relief rally, it is worth noting that short-covering activity has also played a role in lifting stocks across the board. As of yesterday's close, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq were off 2.5%, 1.3% and 2.8%, respectively, in February as the market has been anxious about what it will hear from Fed Chairman Bernanke when he provides his monetary policy report tomorrow. DJ30 +112.23 NASDAQ +15.89 SP500 +9.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1049/1867/1.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1122/2099/1.06 bln

[AnneD]

67. VD is contagious....

I posted this on another thread but wanted to share the love....It is NOT business news though.

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/0213061cheney1.html


for your viewing pleasure.

[54anickel]

68. Closing numbers and yada (for the record)

Dow 11,028.39 +136.07 (+1.25%)
Nasdaq 2,262.17 +22.36 (+1.00%)
S&P 500 1,275.53 +12.67 (+1.00%)
10-yr Bond 4.614% +0.03
30-yr Bond 4.595% +0.04
NYSE Volume 2,456,447,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,884,939,000

4:20 pm : Stocks closed near session highs, as oil prices plummeting to a 2006 low helped relieve ongoing inflation fears and strong retail sales removed concern about a slowing in spending, sparking a broad-based relief rally following yesterday's sell-off which closed virtually every industry to the upside. Expectations that a warmer than expected winter will result in the EIA showing tomorrow that oil inventories are plentiful, prompted a third straight decline across the energy complex. Crude futures closed down 2.7%, below the psychological support level of $60/pbl, while natural gas futures were off 1.8%, at their lowest levels in a year, alleviating some of the inflationary concerns that have kept market gains in check throughout the month.

Providing even more optimism that Q1 earnings may check in better than expected was a report from the Commerce Dept. which showed retailers in January rang up their largest sales gains since May 2004, clearly signaling that consumer spending is back on track. The possibility that a number of market participants were caught leaning on the bearish side of the aisle in what has been a downward-trending market all month resulted in a short-covering rally that also fueled widespread bargain hunting, helping the Dow close above 11,000 for the first time since Jan. 11.

With regard to industry leadership, eight of 10 economic sectors turned in solid performances. Despite retail sales-induced weakness in Treasuries lifting costs on everything from corporate borrowing to mortgages, investors were still drawn to the rate-sensitive Financial sector. The AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (+1.7%) flirting with historic highs, which plays into our Market Weight rating on Financial, led the charge. The yield on the 10-yr note, which earlier in the session hit its highest level since Nov. 10 at 4.63%, closed at 4.61%. Since the strong retail sales data strengthen expectations that Q1 real GDP growth will bounce back to or above 3 1/2%, perhaps making it more likely that Fed Chairman Bernanke will take a hawkish posture tomorrow, prompted bond traders to price in a more hawkish Fed. The fact that Treasuries recovered from their lows helped sideline some early-morning uncertainty about the possibility of at least two more rate hikes.

Technology was another influential leader to the upside, as a 1.8% surge in hardware was complemented by an afternoon turnaround in semiconductor. An analyst upgrade Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 40.22 +1.26) helped offset negative comments out of Goldman Sachs about Broadcom (BRCM 66.79 -1.78) Industrials was another source of market strength, as falling oil prices helped the Dow Transports hit a historic high. News that 3M Co (MMM 73.62 +0.71) will buy back as much as $2 bln of its stock and a better than expected earnings from Deere & Co (DE 74.66 +0.86) lent further credence behind our Overweight rating on the sector.

Energy, however, continued to consolidate amid falling oil prices and the inability of Transocean (RIG 72.10 -6.49), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, to beat overly optimistic forecasts. Utilities also closed lower, as bond yields near their highest levels in three months diminished the appeal of owning dividend-paying stocks. Long-term weather forecasts calling for a warm conclusion to the heating season also weighed on the sector. BTK +1.6% DJ30 +136.07 DJTA +2.6% DJUA -0.2% DOT +0.5% NASDAQ +22.36 NQ100 +1.0% R2K +1.3% SOX +0.7% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +12.67 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1064/1970/1.82 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1134/2163/1.81 bln

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