STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 27

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Monday August 27, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 514 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2425 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2137 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2098
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 24, 2007

Dow... 13,378.87 +142.99 (+1.08%)
Nasdaq... 2,576.69 +34.99 (+1.38%)
S&P 500... 1,479.37 +16.87 (+1.15%)
Gold future... 677.50 +9.10 (+1.34%)
30-Year Bond 4.90% -0.03 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.63% +0.02 (+0.32%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

The Battle Rages as the Chickens Come Home to Roost
BY TIM W. WOOD

The battle between the natural forces of the market and the desire to prevent these natural forces from occurring has now moved to a new level. Up until recently, these efforts were more subtle and more traditional. We are now seeing an outright campaign to keep the market afloat. As I see it, these efforts do not instill confidence, but rather go to show just how desperate the situation with the market truly is.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jul
Briefing Forecast 5.90M
Market Expects 5.70M
Prior 5.75M

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200735.html

[mojavekid]

27. MW: Home inventories rise to 16-year high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-inventories-hit-16-year-high/story.aspx?guid=%7BEF73D79E%2D8E8E%2D4FD5%2D9F83%2D2C3C3EAE953A%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories of unsold single-family homes increased 2.2% to 3.85 million in July, sending the inventory in relation to sales to the highest level in 16 years, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.

Resales of single-family homes and condominiums fell 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million. The results were stronger than the 5.69 million sales pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, but still the slowest since November 2002. See Economic Calendar.
Sales were down 9% compared with a year earlier but were essentially unchanged from June's 5.76 million pace, despite disruption in the pipeline for mortgage loans, the NAR said.

Sales of single-family homes fell 0.4% to a 5.0 million seasonally adjusted pace in July.
Inventories of single-family unsold homes represented a 9.2-month supply at the July sales pace, the highest since October 1991.
For all homes - condos and single-family homes - the inventory rose 5.1% to a record 4.59 million, representing a 9.6-month supply. Condo inventories surged 20% to 742,000, an 11.9-month supply at the July sales pace.
Inventories typically fall in July, said Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the real estate trade group. The inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted.
"The inventory is very high," Yun said, adding that rising foreclosures might be increasing levels of inventories by 5% to 7%. But he also said the problems in the subprime market won't damage the broader economy.

more...

[ozymandius]

31. Have we found another hack?

Seems so.

http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/

Lawrence - if people can't get mortgages anymore, who's going to buy some of that record inventory? Come on, you're an "economist" - you gotta understand supply and demand, right?

http://www.realtor.org/reinsights.nsf/pages/forecast

The additional decline in home sales can be attributed to other factors outside of the subprime loan disruptions. Is it jobs? A resounding NO. Is it due to lack of income and wealth? Another resounding NO. Is it due to higher home prices? NO. Is it due to higher mortgage rates? Surely some impact, but the rates are only modestly higher. What’s the explanation then?

The primary reason seems to be a lack of confidence. Constant reminders in the media of how “bad” the housing sector is has eaten into buyer confidence.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/06/realtors-blame-.html

Oh, now we understand. This entire slowdown in home-buying, the collapse of the subprime lending industry, the surge in bankruptcies, it's our fault -- bloggers and journalists made this happen.

This, at least, is the thrust of an essay by Lawrence Yun, the senior economist for the National Assn. of Realtors. Read the whole thing here.

[54anickel]

38. "Nonsense so blatant that only an intellectual would fall for it"

I came across that quote in the following article and thought it most appropriate....

Confident talk as credit crisis unfolds

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4736&Itemid=57

“This is a liquidity driven market."
“Getting rid of M3 makes expansion invisible."
“Bernanke is closely attuned to the market and as to how much liquidity needs to be in the system for the market to be supported.”
- Marty Chenard, StockTiming.com, July 20

That was not an isolated voice of confidence, as one usually critical and widely-followed observer on August 18 wrote, “Rather than the End of the World, credit markets will get back to normal, as there is a lot of money that needs to find a home.”

Then on August 21 someone at the Wall Street Journal less conditioned by wishful thinking reported, “Debt isn’t merely more expensive, it is scarcely available at any price or on any terms.” The latter is reality and it will likely be as severe as when Thomas Gresham was agent and advisor to the British government in Antwerp when it was the financial capital of the world. Elizabeth’s royal demands for funds were considered undeniable, but during the crisis of 1561 Gresham was obliged to report that there was no credit available, “even at double collateral.”

Being a trader he could accept fate in the market place. There have been many booms and panics since accompanied by generations of academics who all seem to have to do something about the crisis and over the centuries all come up with the same solutions to a credit contraction. Add more credit without understanding that the problem is directly due to the over-use of credit, and cut administered rates without understanding the short-dated market rates of interest plunge during the early stages of a contraction.

As the saying goes, “Nonsense so blatant that only an intellectual would fall for it”.

Stock Markets continue to be suspended by convictions about earnings, valuations, the miracles of policymaking and the soundness of the economy. This is the story that has worked since 2003 when the economy began to support the bull market that started in October 2002.
The point to be made is that the stock market leads major turns in the economy so there is little reason to use economic trends or, shudder, projections.

more...

[ozymandius]

34. visual representation of market enthusiasm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices slip to just above $71

SINGAPORE - Oil prices dipped Monday as traders took profit after crude futures rose more than $1 a barrel in the previous session.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery slid 6 cents to $71.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, mid-afternoon in Singapore. The contract rose $1.26 to settle at $71.09 a barrel Friday on positive U.S. economic data and problems at a U.S. refinery.

The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday sales of durable goods and new homes rose in July, suggesting the economy may not be slowing as much as investors feared. Also, a report that Chevron Corp.'s Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery was canceling crude purchases supported prices at the end of last week on renewed worries about gasoline inventories.

-cut-

The U.S. Energy Department said in its weekly report last Wednesday that over the four weeks to Aug. 17 the country's gasoline demand averaged over 9.6 million barrels a day, 0.6 percent above the same period last year. Analysts at Barclays Capital noted that implied gasoline demand of 9.726 million barrels a day for the fourth week — a weekly record.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Gas down nearly 3 cents in 2 weeks

CAMARILLO, Calif. - The national average price for gasoline dropped about 2.9 cents over the last two weeks, according to a survey released Sunday.

The average price of regular gasoline on Friday was about $2.75 a gallon, mid-grade was $2.88, and premium was $2.99, oil industry analyst Trilby Lundberg said.

..very short..

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070826/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_prices_1

[ozymandius]

5. Home Depot accepts $1.8B less for unit

ATLANTA - The Home Depot Inc. has tentatively agreed to sell its wholesale distribution business to a group of private equity firms for $1.8 billion less than originally planned, and it will retain a small stake in the unit, a person with direct knowledge of the situation said Sunday.

The deal, which also includes Home Depot guaranteeing $1 billion of the debt the buyers will take on to complete the transaction, was hammered out during several days of talks that continued into the weekend, the person said.

The person, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said the revised agreement calls for Home Depot to receive $8.5 billion in cash instead of the original $10.3 billion agreed to in June.

Home Depot will retain a 12.5 percent stake in the HD Supply unit, the person said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070827/ap_on_bi_ge/home_depot_hd_supply

[ozymandius]

6. NABE: Bad credit biggest risk to economy

NEW YORK - Bad credit has supplanted terrorism as the gravest immediate risk threatening the economy, a key national research group reported Monday.

Borrowers' withering ability to pay their bills and the subsequent fallout in the credit markets this summer topped the list of short-term risks on peoples' minds, according to a survey of 258 members conducted by the National Association of Business Economics.

NABE, a Washington-based association, said 32 percent of its surveyed members cited loan defaults and excessive debt as their biggest near-term concern.

-cut-

The tumult in the financial markets has led businesses to revisit their interpretation of the housing boom earlier this decade and the easy credit that fueled it, NABE said. The proportion of surveyed members who call it a "serious national bubble" more than doubled from two years ago to 29 percent, the group said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070827/ap_on_bi_ge/nabe_bad_credit

[ozymandius]

7. Median price of homes seen falling: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Forecasters expect the median price of U.S. homes to fall between 1 percent and 2 percent this year in what would be the first such decline since 1950, when federal agencies began tracking such statistics, the New York Times reported on Sunday.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight is scheduled to release the home-price index on Thursday, and research firm Global Insight expects it to show a decline of about 1 percent between the first and second quarter, according to the newspaper.

Global Insight also expects the decline of U.S. home prices to peak at 4 percent between their highest point in 2007 and the projected low point in 2009, the New York Times said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070826/bs_nm/usa_homeprices_dc

[ozymandius]

8. Stricken German bank sold, Trichet awaited

LONDON (Reuters) - Wary financial markets awaited a public appearance by European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet on Monday after a German bank holed by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was sold.

Key speeches from Trichet and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke top and tail what could be a crucial week for a global credit squeeze which sent markets into a tailspin and forced central banks to pour money into fragile money markets.

The government of the eastern German state of Saxony decided on Sunday to sell its stricken lender SachsenLB to Stuttgart-based LBBW for what sources said was 300 million euros ($410 million) -- a move that kept investors on edge.

Germany has borne the brunt of the European fallout from problems stemming from subprime U.S. home loans as two of its banks have almost collapsed, requiring major bailouts.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070827/bs_nm/economy_credit_dc

[ozymandius]

9. Dunkin' Donuts Dumping Most Trans Fats

BOSTON (AP) -- Dunkin' Donuts, the food-on-the-go chain whose name celebrates a treat that's symbolic of unhealthy eating, is trying to refresh its image by largely eliminating trans fat across its menu, Homer Simpson be damned.

Dunkin' planned to announce Monday that it has developed an alternative cooking oil and reformulated more than 50 menu items -- doughnuts included. The Canton, Mass.-based chain says its menu will be "zero grams trans fat" by Oct. 15 across its 5,400 U.S. restaurants in 34 states.

About 400 locations nationwide that took part in a four-month test already have made the switch to a new blend of palm, soybean and cottonseed oils. That includes all restaurants in New York City and Philadelphia, which are forcing restaurants to phase out their use of artery-clogging trans fat.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070827/dunkin_donuts_trans_fats.html?.v=4

[SpiralHawk]

16. URP !

[ozymandius]

10. I'm Baaaaack -- With New Home Sales (Bonddad on those screwy numbers)

I'm Baaaaack -- With New Home Sales


From CBS.Marketwatch:

Sales of new homes increased 2.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 as the inventory of homes for sale dropped for a fourth straight month, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Sales were stronger than the 820,000 annualized pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar. In addition, sales in June were revised slightly higher.

Sales are down 10.2% compared with last July. Read the full report.

"Given the volatility inherent in the data and the troubles in the mortgage market, however, it is unlikely that July represents a turnaround in housing trends," wrote Celia Chen, an economist for Moody's Economy.com. "At best, it will be the first sign of a slow and unsteady climb back to health."

You can see the figures here

A few points.

1.) I'm having a hard time buying the 2.8% increase. All of the homebuilders have announced poor results this quarter. None have even hinted at the possibility of a rebound. We've had a ton of mortgage lenders issue terrible statements about their business. And suddenly new home sales increase? I'm just having a hard time buying that.

2.) The big jump came from the West, which increased 22.4% from month-ago levels. For anyone who has been paying attention, the West (especially California) has gotten hammered over the last 6 months. That makes this increase hard to swallow. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen, just that the overall environment isn't conducive to that kind of pick-up in activity. For more information check out Calculated Risk, which has been all over the California market.

3.) The total inventory available for sale has decreased 6.9% from year ago levels. That is a very positive sign. One of my main concerns about the new and existing home sales markets is the incredible inventory overhang. As long as that has been out there I have been very bearish on real estate. It looks like we are starting to see this total drop a bit, which is a very good sign. However, we still have a long way to go.

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2007/08/im-baaaaack-with-new-home-sales.html

[Kolesar]

22. Henny Penny! a 10% drop in home sales year-to-year

To read the press hype, one would think half the homebuilders are out of work and ... the sky is falling.

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.664 Change +0.038 (+0.05%)

Return of Risk Dooms the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Return_of_Risk_Dooms_the_1188194246170.html

By the end of the week the markets finally saw some calm as news about the sub-prime fiasco began to recede from the front pages. As we noted on Friday, “The announcement that Bank of China carried nearly 10 Billion dollars of exposure to asset-backed bonds on its books had little impact on trade, partly because the Chinese bank is well capitalized and partly because the marked is becoming somewhat inured to stories of MBS risk. Traders attention is now shifting to handicapping what effect the past two weeks of volatility in capital markets may produce on the real economy.”

To that end the US economic news was actually surprisingly good, though backward looking. Durable goods expanded by the biggest percentage amount since 2004 largely on the back of aircraft orders, while New Homes sales increased for the first time since April despite the much publicized problems in the housing sector. The New Homes Sales number was a bit deceptive as only the West saw a steep pick up in sales. Nevertheless, the latest economic data suggests that US economy continues to function and perform well even in the face of mounting problems in residential real estate.

Ironically enough, positive news for the US economy and US stock markets spelled doom for the greenback as risk appetite returned to the currency market and the buck followed its familiar path of strength against the yen and weakness against all other majors. Next week event risk remains relatively tame with only GDP revisions and Personal Income and Personal Spending number of note. Given that this is the last week of August with Labor Day coming up perhaps the markets will get a much needed rest from volatility -BS



...more...

US Dollar Weakens as Risk Appetite Returns (Sort of)

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Weakens_as_Risk_1187989249632.html

New home sales and durable goods completely blew away expectations today. Orders for goods made to last for more than 3 years increased 5.9 percent last month, which was the largest rise since March 2004. New home sales also broke its 2 month downtrend, but the most optimistic aspect of the report was not the rise in sales, but rather the rise in prices and drop in inventories. Collectively, these reports suggest that the US economy may not be doing as poorly as many people may have thought. The US dollar should have rallied on the back of these releases, but it did not. Why? The bigger theme in the markets at the moment is risk or no risk. Today’s data gave traders the confidence to plow out of their safe haven assets and back into riskier positions. The bottom line is a green light for risk means a green light for carry trades and high yielding currencies. Therefore the biggest gainers from today’s numbers were currencies like the Euro, British Pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars. Although risk appetite appears to have returned given the renewed demand for carry trades, volume is thin ahead of the Summer Bank holiday in London on Monday. This exacerbated the push higher which made the market appear overly optimistic about today’s reports. It is important to realize that the data reflected economic conditions in the month July, which was before financing became an issue. We need more than just one month of data to make a more accurate assessment of how bad these sectors have been hit by the tightening of credit. The Federal Reserve on other hand may not have that luxury. They will be holding their annual retreat in Jackson Hole next week where Bernanke will be delivering a speech on the state of the housing market. With the number one focus of the market being the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, this will be the most important event on the economic calendar next week. The Fed will also be releasing the minutes from their August 7th FOMC meeting. Besides that, we are expecting existing home sales, Q2 GDP, personal income and spending, PCE, Chicago PMI and factory orders. Things could still get worse before they get better, but the recovery could be swift since everyone is in cash or US Treasuries.

...more...

[mojavekid]

25. Daily Pfennig 8/27/07: New Home Sales Soar?

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1557

The dollar saw a storm on Friday, too... And the currencies brought about some cooler fresher air, too! The euro is kicking some major dollar rear again... And so quickly after consolidating! On Friday morning, I told you the euro had reached the 1.36 level again; well, it's cooking with gas at well above the 1.3650 level. I also told you that the negative sentiment had returned to the dollar, and that was quite evident on Friday.

New Home Sales surprised everyone by not falling again, and instead gaining... I find that report to be totally a sham... I'm not kidding... And who are they trying to kid? All of the National Assoc. of Realtors reports leading up to this never, and I repeat, never indicated a rise in New Home Sales... So, where did this come from? Well... I would tell you, but I would get so many emails canceling the Pfennig! HAHAHAHA! Seriously though, I'm not buying it!

Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust, is skeptical too... I was watching Bloomberg on Friday, and Mr. Kasriel was being interviewed... When he was asked about the strong New Home Sales, he said the same thing I just said above, but in a nicer, economist-speak, way...

Durable Goods in the U.S. surged 5.9% in July... And while I'm not going to be skeptical of that printing, I have every right to be. I'm just going to point out that these were two strong reports for the dollar... And the dollar got sold... Talk about the negative sentiment being so strong!

In my never-ending search for other viewpoints to present to you so you can see that I'm not the only one out there talking about dollar weakness, I came across the following snippet from my good friend David Galland's weekly newsletter...

"But what of the U.S. dollar? After all, once the printing presses fire up to full speed, and the Fed Funds rate begins to ratchet steadily downward, won’t the Chinese and other non-U.S. holders of our 6 trillion dollars show their displeasure by ridding themselves of the things, driving the dollar down even further? Surely that can’t be allowed. Can it?

more...

[ozymandius]

28. Not even the most gullible believe Friday's new home sale report.

Regulars here understand that Greenspan-type ideologues love to manufacture these silly fluffy "reports". Seems they've gone too far this time pumping the volume.

[mojavekid]

35. Hi Ozy, Right there with you,

and am not buying it, and never had. It is all in how you choose to interpret the data, post #27 is a good example of this! Though today was really pushing it too far, it reeks of fear...



http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=340

"GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC REPORTS: THINGS YOU'VE
SUSPECTED BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK!"

A Series Authored by Walter J. "John" Williams

"Series Master Introduction"
(Part One in a Series of Five)

August 24, 2004

In 1996 -- the middle of the Clinton economic miracle -- the Kaiser Foundation conducted a survey of the American public that purported to show how out of touch the electorate was with economic reality. Most Americans thought inflation and unemployment were much higher, and economic growth was much weaker, than reported by the government. The Washington Post bemoaned the economic ignorance of the public. The same results would be found today.

Neither the Kaiser Foundation nor the Post understood that there was and still is good reason for the gap between common perceptions and government reporting: government data are biased in politically correct directions and increasingly have diverged from common experience and reality since the mid-1980s. Inflation and unemployment reports are understated, while employment and other economic data are overstated, deliberately.

For several years, I conducted surveys among business economists as to how they viewed the quality of government economic data. The following were actual comments:

· The senior economist of a major retail company told me, "Quality varies. The retail sales numbers are terrible, but money supply data are great."

· The senior economist at a major bank offered, "There's a problem with money supply, but I think retail sales are pretty good."

The point is that when an economist knows a sector well, he also recognizes the limitations and distortions of related economic reporting. Gathering and reporting accurate information on a timely (one-month) basis for components of the U.S. economy is nearly impossible. Nonetheless, most career government statisticians in Washington work diligently to provide the best information possible within the limits of the existing reporting system. A number of reporting distortions, however, are not accidental.

plenty more....

[UpInArms]

12. U.S. crisis underscores global links

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070826/ap_on_bi_ge/global_markets

NEW YORK - The sharp declines this month in many stock markets worldwide proves that not all that happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

That city is among those areas of the United States hard hit by a slumping housing market. Combine that with a strong global appetite in recent years for investments based on U.S. mortgages bundled together, and a dotted line begins to emerge between faltering home loans in once-hot housing markets and troubles for hedge funds in Australia and banks in Europe.

"The speed at which the integrated markets now affect each other — that will probably be the biggest observation of what is going on now," said Georges Ugeux, chief executive of the investment bank Galileo Global Advisors and former head of the international group at the New York Stock Exchange. "The interconnection has now a level of immediacy that it means if there is coughing going on in New York people might have the flu in Germany the next day. There is no cover."

What started out as a storm in one corner of the debt market spread worldwide in a matter of days, exposing often overlooked ties among far-flung markets and illustrating how normally cool-headed investors can act in lockstep when frightened.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. US recession risk highest since 9/11 -- ex-Treasury secretary

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/useconomysummers

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers said Sunday it was too early to declare the financial markets crisis over and said chances had risen sharply of an economic downturn in the United States.

Despite interventions by the US Federal Reserve last week which appeared to reverse heavy selling pressure over the collapsing US housing debt market, Summers said the risk of recession was its highest since the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

"We certainly saw some repair and some return to normality this week, but I think it would be far premature to judge this crisis over for at least two reasons," Summers told ABC television.

"First, we can't yet know that there aren't more shoes to drop in the financial area," he said, referring to the massive loss of confidence in securitized housing loans as US real estate prices sag.

"Second, we haven't yet had the time to observe what all this is going to mean for the real economy and for the actual process of job creation in our economy.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Is There (Middle Class) Life After Maytag?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/business/yourmoney/26maytag.html?ex=1345780800&en=0c92526e743a5089&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

NEWTON, Iowa - THE last of the Maytag factories that lifted so many people into the middle class here will close on Oct. 26. Guy Winchell and his wife, Lisa, will lose their jobs that day. Their combined income of $43 an hour will disappear and, soon after, so will their health insurance. Most of the pensions they would have received will also be gone.

The Winchells are still in their 40s. They can retrain or start a business, choices promoted by city leaders in a campaign to “reinvent” Newton without its biggest employer. But as they ponder their futures, the Winchells are uncertain about how to deal with a lower standard of living. “I’m not wanting to go waitress,” said Mrs. Winchell, who, at 41, drives a forklift and earns $19 an hour, “but I can do what I have to to make money.”

Mr. Winchell, 46, having earned $24 an hour as a skilled electrician, seems paralyzed by the disappearance of his employer. He imagines that there is work for electricians in central Iowa but he hasn’t looked. “Lisa is always on me because I’m so angry,” he said. “She says, ‘What would your mom have said?’ My mom would have said, ‘Worrying is not going to help.’”

Newton’s last day as a manufacturing mecca comes a century after Fred L. Maytag built his first mechanical washing machine here. Over time he also located his headquarters, research center and most production in Newton, changing it from a rural county seat into a prosperous city of 16,000. Absent Maytag’s high pay, overall hourly earnings last year for other workers in the county would have been $3 an hour less, according to Iowa Workforce Development, a state agency.

And then the Whirlpool Corporation bought Maytag in the spring of 2006 and began shutting down its operations here, eliminating jobs and depressing wages. Those caught in this process around the country are gradually swelling what Katherine S. Newman, a Princeton sociologist, describes as “The Missing Class,” the title of a soon-to-be-published book (Beacon Press), of which she is co-author.

Ms. Newman calculates that 54 million adults and children occupy a “nether region” of family incomes well above the poverty line — but well short of the middle class. Either they fall out of the middle class, as the Winchells are in danger of doing, or they have never earned enough at one job to get a family of four into the middle class.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Will the Fed Weigh In Again?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/business/yourmoney/26mark.html?ex=1345780800&en=e97512228fef3326&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

IT may be hard to muster concern for multimillionaire hedge fund speculators who got burned in the debt markets, but their problems are quickly becoming yours, one investment adviser warns. He sees trouble moving out of the high-rent district and setting up house next door.

“The credit problems may have originated on Wall Street, but they have moved to Main Street,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist at the TCW Group, a fund management firm in Los Angeles. The response to that trend by traders and the Federal Reserve, he said, is likely to determine the immediate course of the stock and bond markets.

Mr. Sri-Kumar is hoping that the Fed will arrive at the conclusion that many investors already have reached: that stronger action is needed to contain the damage from the deterioration of debt markets.

“The credit crunch and the lack of availability of money for mortgages have become so serious that what the Fed has to do for Wall Street and for homeowners is the same,” he said.

In his view, the essential ingredient for recovery is a reduction in the target for the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks make very short-term loans to each other. That would help stabilize the markets and add momentum to the rally in stocks that began nine days ago, when the Fed cut the discount rate, the rate banks pay to borrow directly from the Fed.

...more...

[Demeter]

17. How Will Markets React to Gonzo Resignation?

Will they even notice?

[Nimrod2005]

18. Happy happy joy joy?

[Demeter]

19. Down 47? I Don't Think So

[Hugin]

23. Ah, he's just gone underground...

Like Rover and Rummy.

Govt' by Blackberry.

It's the way of the future... Gotta avoid those subpoenas, somehow.

Glad the market is ignoring it.

[antigop]

20. Curb the greedy global financiers

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2156600,00.html

>>
One of the most inequitable and amoral acts in modern times is happening in front of our eyes and in Britain there is hardly a murmur of protest. The multi-billion dollar bail-out of global finance after one of the most reckless periods of lending and deal-making since the late 1920s is extraordinarily one-sided.

Little people's taxes are underwriting the mistakes of big people, who in the process have made riches beyond the dreams of avarice. Globalisation, it is now clear, is run in the interests of a global financial class which has Western governments in its thrall. This class does not give a fig for the interests of savers, clients or wider workforces.

The rules of the game are set up solely to benefit the financiers whether in London, New York or Hong Kong. The nonsense at the heart of the crisis - lending 100 per cent mortgages to borrowers with no income, employment or assets, packaging up the resulting debt and selling it to banks around the globe while taking a handsome fee on every transaction - can be launched with impunity. Financial regulation, we are told, hinders the efficiency of financial markets.
>>

[ozymandius]

21. I think the Nasdaq volume is a bit off.

10:51
Dow 13,333.76 Down 45.11 (0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,565.85 Down 10.84 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,471.12 Down 8.25 (0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.592% Down 0.041
NYSE Volume 43,479,428,000
Nasdaq Volume 148,039,286,784,000

10:30 am : The market extends its reach to the downside as today's only scheduled economic report shows no signs of a recovery in the troubled housing market. In contrast to Friday's surprisingly strong gain in new home sales, existing home sales fell 0.2% in July to 5.75 mln (consensus 5.70 mln), the lowest level of sales in five years.

Meanwhile, the inventory of unsold single-family homes rose 2.2% to 3.85 mln. That represents a 9.2 months' supply, the most since October 1991, suggesting it may even be premature to assume the housing sector is stabilizing. DJ30 -60.31 NASDAQ -10.62 SP500 -8.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1747/897/234 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2099/878/178 mln

[Hugin]

24. Typo?

:rofl:

[mojavekid]

26. MW: Gold futures slip as dollar trades mixed

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-edge-lower-back/story.aspx?guid=%7BE2BEB449%2D6AEB%2D4EB7%2D8EDA%2DD06594417441%7D

Gold for December delivery fell $1.70 to stand at $675.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"The new week in gold commenced on a mixed note as ... participants attempted to gauge the depth of positive sentiment after last week's $11 gains," said Jon Nadler, metals analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a research note.
On Friday, gold ended at $677.50 an ounce, the contract's highest closing level since Aug. 15. It was up $9.10 an ounce for the session and ended the week higher by $10.70, or 1.6%. Read more.
In currencies, the dollar fell slightly against Japan's yen but rose against its European rivals ahead of U.S. housing data. July figures on existing-home sales are due out at 10 a.m. Eastern time.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of the world's major currencies, was flat at 80.680. See Currencies.
"Gold has been underpinned by stock market recovery and a weak dollar, but nervousness around risk aversion continues to linger on the gold market," said analysts at Action Economics.
Other metals prices were mixed. September silver edged down 6 cents at $11.880 an ounce, October platinum rose $3.40 at $1,250.40 an ounce and December palladium fell $1 at $335.50 an ounce.
September copper rallied 9.30 cents, or 3%, at $3.4305 a pound.

more...

[mojavekid]

29. Doug Noland Interview: "Deflating The Credit Bubble" on Financial Sense

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Of Prudent Bear...

[ozymandius]

30. lunchtime check-in

12:09
Dow 13,327.66 Down 51.21 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,558.00 Down 18.69 (0.73%)
S&P 500 1,468.48 Down 10.89 (0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.60% Down 0.033
NYSE Volume 78,193,080,000
Nasdaq Volume 287,299,534,848,000

12:00 pm : The indices are off their worst levels midday but continue to sport broad-based losses.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq turning in their best weekly performances since March, and the Dow logging its best week (+2.3%) since late April, M&A uncertainty and weak housing data have given investors an excuse to lock in some of last week's sizable gains.

Since today is Monday, there has been some deal making activity. However, none have remotely resembled the blockbuster deals that investors had grown accustomed to when the indices hit record highs in mid July and the day's biggest deal (a divestiture) has been re-priced 17% lower than it was expected to garner back in June.

Home Depot (HD 35.31 +0.63) finally agreed to sell its supply business, but for $1.8 bln less than the original $10.3 bln price tag. The stock is up nearly 2.0% amid relief of the deal's completion; but it is one of only five Dow components catching a bid. Home Depot's revised offer also serves as a reminder that an estimated $400 bln in pending buyout deals run the risk of being renegotiated at lower prices.

Today's only scheduled economic report showing no signs of a recovery in the troubled housing market is also contributing to widespread profit taking. In contrast to Friday's surprisingly strong gain in new home sales, existing home sales fell 0.2% in July to 5.75 mln (consensus 5.70 mln), the lowest level of sales in five years. Also troubling, the inventory of unsold single-family homes rose 2.2% to 3.85 mln. That represents a 9.2 months' supply, the most since October 1991, suggesting it may even be premature to assume the housing sector is stabilizing. Homebuilding (-4.3%) is today's worst performing S&P industry group.

All 10 sectors are trading lower, paced by a 2.7% decline in Utilities while a 0.7% drop removes an even larger source of market support. Goldman Sachs cutting earnings estimates for several investment banks (e.g. BSC -2.3%, LEH -2.7%, MS -0.8%) is taking some of the steam out of a relief rally that helped the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD -1.3%) climb 2.3% last week. DJ30 -44.06 NASDAQ -15.78 SP500 -9.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1852/958/530 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2364/808/410 mln

11:30 am : Stocks are taking a turn for the worse as selling remains widespread across most areas. Virtually all of the 147 S&P industry groups are now trading lower, paced by a 3.4% decline in Homebuilding on the heels of today's discouraging existing homes sales data. The group's year-to-date decline now stands at 44.3%. ..HGX -2.0%.

Adding to the market's recent struggles have been the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's inability to find support above key technical levels of 1471 and 2563, respectively. The Dow is the only major average not hitting fresh session lows, but it is retesting morning support near the 13310 level as 25 of its 30 components lose ground. DJ30 -60.88 NASDAQ -18.80 SP500 -11.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1873/919/440 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2329/797/332 mln

[mojavekid]

32. Bloomberg: Trichet Steps Back From Rate Signal, Says ECB Not Pre-Committed

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aftnwg4fF2vg&refer=home

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet stepped back from his earlier signal that interest rates will be increased next week, saying policy makers plan to wait before deciding whether financial market turbulence is hurting economic growth.

In his first public appearance since the market rout began, Trichet said in Budapest the bank was not ``pre-committed'' to raising borrowing costs on Sept. 6. He avoided repeating his Aug. 2 statement that the ECB was monitoring inflation with ``strong vigilance,'' a phrase used to foreshadow previous rate increases.

The euro and bond yields fell as investors concluded that the ECB may keep the key refinancing rate at 4 percent next week as it gauges how much the fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis is infecting the European economy.

``There is clearly a sense that the commitment to hiking is no longer there,'' said Jacques Cailloux, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. ``We've got early signs that the real economy has been hit and the ECB can no longer be as confident about the outlook as it was before.''

more...

[ozymandius]

33. Market rallies at Lawrence Yun's prognosis. Dow +20

12:30
Dow 13,346.76 Down 32.11 (0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,561.92 Down 14.77 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,470.60 Down 8.77 (0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.596% Down 0.037
NYSE Volume 78,273,720,000
Nasdaq Volume 319,816,794,112,000

[ozymandius]

36. updating blather

12:30 pm : Stocks are trying to regain some momentum as the afternoon session gets underway; but hardly enough to make a significant change in the standings. Not to mention, the Consumer Staples (-0.1%) making the most concerted effort among the 10 sectors posting losses merely underscores the lack of conviction behind buyers' recent efforts.

The defensive-oriented sector is getting its biggest boost from Altria Group (MO 70.56 +1.37). The Dow component is up 2.0% amid reports it is likely to spin off the overseas division of its cigarette business. Tobacco (+1.9%) is today's best performer and the only S&P industry group sporting an intraday advance of more than 1.0%. DJ30 -30.36 NASDAQ -14.90 SP500 -8.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1856/988/606 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2394/808/460 mln

[54anickel]

37. Anyone catch this in GD-Politics. This sounds similar to the S&P put story floating here on Friday.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3480543

Strange how this is now making the press, info actually seems rather dated. :shrug: Just what the hell are they up to? :freak:

[54anickel]

39. Knowing What Ain't True (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070827.htm

big snip>

Fed to the Rescue?

As I've noted in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has been doing exactly what it should be doing – acting to maintain the soundness of the banking system. The Fed's intent here is not to absorb private losses. It is to make sure that banks don't have to contract their loan portfolios because of short-term withdrawals of funds. Though the Fed did open itself to slightly more credit-sensitive collateral, these securities are still investment grade and generally short-term in nature. Again, since these securities are collateral only, the creditworthiness of the underlying mortgages only becomes an issue for the Fed if the banks default on repaying their borrowings to the Fed. At that point, we've got far bigger problems.

It's important to distinguish between Fed actions to maintain liquidity in periods of crisis and Fed actions intended to affect the volume of lending more generally. As I've frequently noted, since reserve requirements were eliminated in the early 1990's on all bank deposits other than checking accounts, there is no longer any material connection between the volume of bank reserves and the volume of lending in the banking system. In normal circumstances, the Fed is simply irrelevant. The issue at present is that there is an unusual spike in the demand for reserves in the banking system. This is exactly the situation in which the Fed does have an important role.

I recognize that many investors are concerned about the potential for inflationary consequences from the Fed's operations here. However, as I've frequently noted, a sharp widening of credit spreads is an indication that there is increasing demand for the monetary base (which we observe as a decline in “monetary velocity”). In that situation, an expansion of the monetary base doesn't naturally result in inflationary pressures. The inflationary pressures may come later, if the Fed fails to absorb those reserves back from the banking system as the demand for liquidity eases back to normal. But for now, I do view the Fed's actions in terms of repos and discount window lending as appropriate.

Though the Fed will most probably cut the Fed Funds rate by half a percent, possibly all in the September meeting, or perhaps split between September and October, I don't believe that such an easing has much capacity to eliminate the inevitable default problems ahead in the mortgage market. As Nouriel Roubini has pointed out, there is a major difference between illiquidity (which Fed operations have a good potential to offset) and insolvency (which can be offset only by explicit bailouts at taxpayer expense, as we saw during the S&L crisis). My impression is that most of the worst credit risk is held outside of the banking system, so there is little concern that losses will need to be covered by deposit insurance. A greater share is probably held by investment banks and hedge funds, and my impression is that taxpayers will be hard pressed to allow Congress to use their tax money to finance the bailout of Wall Street financiers, when they've got their own mortgage bills to pay.

As a side note, I'm intrigued that investors have been so willing to lower their guard about credit concerns and the potential for continued blowups, based on nothing but the short-term interventions of the Fed. Most likely, the worst credit risks are being held in the hedge fund world, where reporting is monthly and nobody has to say nothin' until the month is over.

And on the subject of what investors know that ain't true, it's not clear that investors should really be cheering for an environment in which the Fed would be prompted to cut rates because of recession risk. Recall that the '98 cuts were largely due to illiquidity problems from the LTCM crisis, not because of more general economic risks. In contrast (with a nod to Michael Belkin), below are a few instances when the FOMC successively cut the Fed Funds rate in attempts to avoid recession: 2000-2002 and 1981-1982. Those cuts certainly didn't prevent deep market losses. Speculators hoping for a "Bernanke put" to save their assets are likely to discover - too late - that the strike price is way out of the money.

more...

[mojavekid]

40. Fleckenstein: How regulators fed the credit mess

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/HowRegulatorsFedTheCreditMess.aspx

I have written plenty over the years about how financial firms have been allowed to essentially make up their numbers. But on Wednesday, a Bloomberg story by Jonathan Weil ("Wells Fargo Gorges on Mark-to-Make-Believe Gains") makes it appear I have not been skeptical enough about the ability of these firms to create illusions.

Officially blessed fudging
Kudos to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) for creating this fiasco last September, when "it approved a new, three-level hierarchy for measuring 'fair values' of assets and liabilities, under a pronouncement called FASB Statement No. 157, which Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs) adopted in January," as Weil reported.

He counted the ways: "Level 1 means the values come from quoted prices in active markets. The balance-sheet changes then pass through the income statement each quarter as gains or losses. Call this mark-to-market.

"Level 2 values are measured using 'observable inputs,' such as recent transaction prices for similar items, where market quotes aren't available. Call this mark-to-model.

"Then there's Level 3. Under Statement 157, this means fair value is measured using 'unobservable inputs.' While companies can't actually see the changes in the fair values of their assets and liabilities, they're allowed to book them through earnings anyway, based on their own subjective assumptions. Call this mark-to-make-believe."

Weil succinctly summed up the situation as follows: "There's the kind of earnings investors can take to the bank. And then there's the kind the bank can show to investors."

more...

[mojavekid]

41. R.I.P. Aaron Russo, Music Manager, Film Producer Dies at 64

http://film.guardian.co.uk/apnews/story/0,,-6876096,00.html

thought some here might want to know..


LOS ANGELES (AP) - Aaron Russo, who managed Bette Midler and went on to produce such films as ``Trading Places,'' has died. He was 64.

Russo died from cancer before dawn on Friday, surrounded by family at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, said Heidi Gregg, his girlfriend of more than two decades. Russo had been battling the disease for nearly six years, she said.

snip...

Russo was also a long time political activist, making an unsuccessful run for Nevada governor as a Republican in 1998. In January 2004, Russo declared his candidacy for the Libertarian Party's presidential nomination but lost.

In 2006, Russo finished work on a documentary titled ``America: Freedom to Fascism,'' which was billed as an expose of the Internal Revenue Service.

``He was an absolutely amazing man,'' said Ilona Urban, his press secretary. ``He was pointed and once he knew there was a direction to go, you couldn't get him to turn left or right. He was very committed. ``

more...

[Kolesar]

43. That great film that started with Mozart and ended with doo-wop

"I was Agent Orange"

[ozymandius]

42. Markets rally on the renewed belief in the Tooth Fairy

2:37
Dow 13,377.57 Down 1.30 (0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,572.40 Down 4.29 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,473.76 Down 5.61 (0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.594% Down 0.039
NYSE Volume 276,357,216,000
Nasdaq Volume 523,707,777,024,000

2:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the S&P 500 continues to pace the way lower among the majors. The fact that Financials (-0.9%) is still among today's biggest laggards is why the broader market continues to have a tougher time paring losses than the Dow and Nasdaq. The latter was Friday's best performing major average (+2.9%) but has been unable to find strength from any Nasdaq-listed tech names other than Qualcomm (QCOM 38.73 +0.50).

It is up 1.3% after already completing one third of its $3.0 bln buyback during July and August. The Dow is down only 0.1% and, with oil prices looking to close near session highs, could turn positive if Exxon Mobil (XOM 85.15 -0.54) eventually turns positive.DJ30 -16.45 NASDAQ -7.84 SP500 -7.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1804/1105/902 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2288/1011/690 mln

[ozymandius]

44. at the close - market trading volume at unbelievable heights

Truly unbelievable.

Dow 13,322.13 Down 56.74 (0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,561.25 Down 15.44 (0.60%)
S&P 500 1,466.79 Down 12.58 (0.85%)
10-Yr Bond 4.596% Down 0.037
NYSE Volume 444,787,808,000
Nasdaq Volume 711,492,763,648,000

4:20 pm : Stocks closed lower across the board Monday as uncertainty surrounding $400 bln in pending buyout deals and weak housing data gave investors an excuse to lock in some of last week's sizable gains.

After rallying more than 1.2% on Friday and turning in their best weekly performances in several months, it wasn't surprising to see the major averages succumb to some profit taking.

On the M&A front, reports indicated that Home Depot (HD 35.21 +0.53) has agreed to sell its supply business, but for only $8.5 bln. That is nearly $2.0 bln less than the original $10.3 bln price tag.

Shares of the Dow component opened up 2.0% amid relief over the deal's seeming completion and the fact that its planned $22.5 bln buyback would not be cut as some on Wall Street had feared. The supply deal being re-priced about 18% lower than the original deal made in June, however, served as a reminder that much larger deals also run the risk of being renegotiated at lower prices.

Today's only scheduled economic report showing no signs of a recovery in the troubled housing market also contributed to today's widespread consolidation. In contrast to Friday's surprisingly strong gain in new home sales, existing home sales fell 0.2% in July to 5.75 mln (consensus 5.70 mln), the lowest level of sales in five years.

More troubling was the inventory of unsold single-family homes. It rose 2.2% to 3.85 mln, which represents 9.2 months supply. That's the most since October 1991, suggesting it may even be premature to assume the housing sector is stabilizing. Homebuilding (-5.0%), this year's worst performing S&P industry group by far with a 45.3% decline for 2007, was today's biggest laggard.

Of the 10 sectors finishing in negative territory, Utilities paced the way with a 3.3% decline. However, the most influential of them all -- Financials (-1.4%) -- turning in the next worst performance was a much bigger drag on today's action.

Countrywide Financial (CFC 19.99 -1.01) was the sector's worst performing component (-4.8%) after Lehman Brothers slashed its FY07 EPS estimates and Piper Jaffray downgraded the stock. Goldman Sachs cutting earnings estimates for several investment banks (e.g. BSC -4.2%, LEH -4.3%, MS -1.4%) also left valuations vulnerable after the sector rallied about 8% over the previous seven sessions.

A day after surging 2.1% on the back of a 1.8% gain in oil prices, the Energy sector's inability to take advantage of another rally (+1.2%) in the October crude contract further underscored the lack of enthusiasm to extend the market's recent low-volume rally.

Volume didn't surpass 1.0 bln shares at the Nasdaq until late in the session, and the NYSE barely reached that mark. Today's below average volume suggests there wasn't much conviction in today's market by either buyers or sellers. BTK -1.0% DJ30 -56.74 DJTA -1.0% DJUA -3.2% DOT -0.9% NASDAQ -15.44 NQ100 -0.7% R2K 1.2% SOX -1.7% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -12.58 XOI -0.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1905/1072/1.33 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2376/944/1.03 bln