The governor recommended evacuation for the entire texas coast. You are mistaking evacuation recommendations for mandatory evacuations, which are in Galveston and other coastal and low-lying areas.
There is every reason for others to try to evacuate. If the storm makes landfall around Freeport, see article posted in:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4845439&mesg_id=4845439It all depends on how far east the landfall occurs, but Galveston/Houston is still well in the danger zone even though there has been some eastern movement. The storm is still wobbling on its path and each wobble means a change in landfall. Landfall east or west of Galveston Bay makes a big difference in surge and wind damage.
There's still 24 hours to go. For an example of inland damage to expect, see the following NWS bulletin. Because there is NO WAY to tell where this hurricane will make landfall yet, it is extremely unwise to suppose that anyone has made an error or been "panicky" in attempting to evacuate inland zones. Those who are choosing to stay because of traffic are in a bad pinch now, because they are still highly at risk of catastrophic conditions. However it would be even worse to be caught on the highway.
Take this deadly seriously. Even if it does not in the end prove to be catastrophic (we can only pray for that), hindsight is worth nothing here. The potential is and has been present for an absolutely overwhelming disaster in Houston, coastal, low-lying, and higher ground inland.
It's time to learn something about all this from Katrina, and not fall into the same old fatal cycle of thinking that one bullet dodged means the worst case will never happen.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
.POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THE LARGE
HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS
WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST.
LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-231100-
ACADIA-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-ORANGE-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...BEAUMONT...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...LAKE CHARLES...LAFAYETTE...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY AND CAMERON
...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO
NOON CDT SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES, LA HAS ISSUED AN INLAND
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...
THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE AROUND
135 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 180 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE
EXACT LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A
HURRICANE WITH THIS STRENGTH.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO
ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...
WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL
DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL
FAILURES.
HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL
BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS
ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.
ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS
WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE.
CITRUS ORCHARDS WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND
CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE
HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL
BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.
OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-
LEAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE
AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.
...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...
...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT
SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL
COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL
CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED
ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO
THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER
LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS
IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL
CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL
LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS
ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
$$
LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-231100-
ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-JASPER-NEWTON-RAPIDES-
ST. LANDRY-TYLER-VERNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...NEWTON...KOUNTZE...JASPER...
OBERLIN...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...MARKSVILLE...
LEESVILLE AND ALEXANDRIA
...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES, LA HAS ISSUED AN INLAND
HURRICANE WIND WATCH.
HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LARGE
HURRICANE FORCE WIND FIELD THAT WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND. AREAS
A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-LEAST HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING FRIDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE WITH HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS.
...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...
...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT
SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL
COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL
CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED
ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO
THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER
LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS
IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL
CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL
LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS
ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
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