Politico: 7 things to watch as the fall race kicks off
By: Glenn Thrush
September 8, 2008
....1. Will Obama profit from pain?
Voters say the economy is their number one concern — and in nearly every poll Barack Obama enjoys a substantial, but not commanding, 10- to 15-point advantage on economic issues. He’s doing better than John Kerry or Al Gore did on the economy, he fares best in battleground states. A Democracy Corps survey taken during the GOP convention gave Obama an 11-point edge on the economy nationwide but a 15-point lead in swing states including Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Virginia.
But Obama hasn’t been able to translate that advantage into big leads over McCain in the states hit hardest by the economic downtown. In fact, the race has tightened in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and hard-hit Michigan — despite McCain’s support of unpopular free trade agreements, his less-than enthusiastic support of the housing bailout, his own profession of ignorance on economic matters and ample connections to Big Oil.
Race and class issues are probably sapping Obama’s support. But he’s also been hurt by nagging questions about his leadership experience as the GOP tries to shift the election from a referendum on Republican economic policies to a test of whether Obama is up to the job of president....
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2. Has Palin Peaked?
Sarah Palin’s addition to the ticket probably exceeded her running mate’s wildest expectations: McCain has turned an eight-point deficit in the Gallup daily tracking poll into a three-point lead. But McCain’s campaign has so far been able to protect Palin from any downside....
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3. Can Joe Biden avoid the curse of Rick Lazio?...
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4. The presidential candidates debate, too.
Until McCain picked Palin, the trio of presidential debates -- scheduled for Sept. 26 at Ole Miss, Oct. 7 in Nashville and Oct. 15 in Long Island – seemed likely to the defining moments in the fall campaign. They still are. “The margins are so tight and voters have so many questions about both guys. The potential for a major, game-changing slip-up is huge,” says Democratic consultant Jefrey Pollock....
Neither candidate is exactly a master of the form. McCain does best when he’s cracking collegial jokes, but he’s prone to missteps and shows unattractive flashes of anger from time to time. Obama is a polished performer but sometimes comes across as condescending or professorial. He makes his own share of mistakes, including the comment -- during the recent Saddleback Forum -- that a question about when life begins was above his “pay grade.” Over the weekend, Obama said his response to the question had been too flip, and that what he really meant was that he doesn’t “presume to be able to answer these kinds of theological questions.”
5. Will Hillary really help?
Obama needs Hillary Clinton on the trail – less to offset Palin than to deliver working-class whites who became her base during the primaries. Exactly how much she’ll be used is up in the air....
6. Wright back at you.
Obama complains that he didn’t hear much in the way of economic solutions at the Republican Convention. There’s something else he didn’t hear much: the name of Reg. Jeremiah Wright. That won’t last....
7. Will Mount McCain erupt?...
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=3FE30557-18FE-70B2-A8EF2DEF93E4DDD1
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