If you are a homeowner, have you visited zillow, yet?

[question everything]

http://www.zillow.com/ to see the value of your house?

[tridim]

1. The map with the prices is amazing

Although I just found out my house is worth the same as it was 4 years ago.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

2. Interesting.

We had an appraiser in this afternoon, I'm curious to see what the difference is.

Thanks. :)

[Pachamama]

123. Ours would be accurate, but it doesn't take into account the recent flood

we had which has caused serious damage to houses throughout the neighborhood and seriously devalued homes.

What's scary is seeing the per sq ft cost of our house....over $900 per sq ft....that's just so ridiculous....

[shanti]

3. that's pretty cool!

and it's about what they ARE selling for here.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

4. did you click on the address above the map?

On the map it gives you the 'high end' price. If you click on the address it gives you all kinds of stats, #bath and bedrooms, square feet, even sale history. even cooler. :)

[Clark2008]

47. The info about my house was a bit off

It's got an extra room that could be a bedroom or den and another bathroom not mentioned, but the square footage was correct.

Glad to know my house is the third most valuable house on the street; however. :)

[Greyhound]

102. Mine too, wrong sq. ft., # of bedrooms, total # of rooms and price

But it was in the ballpark.

[formernaderite]

109. they generally get this stuff from the state assessment listings

you should definitely check your state real property tax site if they are falsely increasing the size of your house. You're probably overpaying in real estate taxes.

[Greyhound]

114. no such luck, it's wrong the other way. Damn.

[formernaderite]

121. my house value was accurate..but then the state just reassessed

I checked a buddies recently purchased house, and it was off by about $400,000...but that's when his last assessment was done.

[Suich]

5. A friend just turned me on to this site!

I have checked every house I've ever lived in, all my friend's houses, houses I've always wondered about, and relative's homes all over the country. This is a FUN site!!!

[question everything]

7. And found out the truism of "location, location, location"

Wonder whether Cheney's house will be obscured - as is on Google map

[zanne]

46. They seem to have eliminated the state of NH.

I can't click on my state. The last time I looked, Vermont didn't have a seacoast, but that's what I'm getting.

[Sydnie]

6. Holy shit! according to this site my house has dropped $80,000 in

the last 30 days! It's still says it is worth 4 times plus what we paid for it, but it sure shows that the housing bubble has burst in Massachusetts with a vengeance! OUCH!

[question everything]

8. Or.. the slow down during winter

It takes into account recent sales and assessed values

[Sydnie]

10. there are a lot of house for sale in my town right now

this time last year, they were moving in 30 days easily. People were overbidding to get them then. Bidding wars were fun to watch then.

I don't see it as a slow down actually. I see it as a bubble busting time. Seeing the houses that are on the market and knowing that more and more are listing with their realtors with the clause that if they don't move in within 90 days, the realtor will purchase the house from them directly and unload it themselves too. Everyday I see more for sale signs going up.

[hvn_nbr_2]

13. Relax. It's only a computer model.

Don't know what kind of algorithm they use, but they have mine 80K below what identical units have been selling for.

[Sydnie]

15. No, I think it's pretty accurate actually

It's just shocking to see it in color, know what I mean? We have this habit of always reading the sales of houses listed in our Sunday paper and using that as a base, this is pretty damn accurate for prices in my neighborhood.

[hughee99]

17. I just checked my value (also in Massachusetts)

and I'm up about 16K in the last month. My brother is an appraiser, and has been saying that a lot of people in the state have been selling their larger houses (especially the McMansions), moving into nice smaller houses (like mine) and pocketing the cash while the market is still okay. It's driving up the price of smaller houses and dropping the price of larger houses, or at least that's how he explained it.

This site is great and fairly accurate, according to him.

[phylny]

31. It's not all that up-to-date.

My current home isn't shown - just a hole in the ground, and it was built in 2004.

My dad's home is valued at $1,000. On Long Island? No way :)

[n2doc]

105. They are way off in GA

At least in Savannah, the values they come up with are about 1/3 of recent house prices, even for houses that sold in the past year. So they definitely have some work to do.
Still, I find their sat maps to be much better than the ones used by Google, more detailed.

[Gormy Cuss]

40. They seem to have a significant lag on actual sales data

It's clear that the estimates are based on avg cost/sq ft of recent sales in the area with fine tuning using comps and other tools. Lacking good comps could skew the estimate.

My house value on zillow tracks well against a recent assessment.

[meatloaf]

9. Not accurate for Utah

Mom's house was valued at 1.3 mil.

I'd be very surprised if it was worth more than 200k.


Edited for content

[Hamlette]

37. agreed, meatloaf

it has my house valued at 1.7 M and when I checked Market Value Change since last sale, it shows I purchased it for $1 M....uh...no. Hardly.

Odd that it would be so far off here.

[lpbk2713]

11. Anybody have Bill Gates' address? .............. n/t

[KyuzoGator]

67. 1835 73 ave NE, Medina WA 98039

Zillow shows it as being worth $117M.

[lpbk2713]

74. It says he has 8 BR's and one bath.

:wtf:

[KyuzoGator]

93. It also has incorrect "last sold" info.

The site's information is not 100% correct, that's why there's an edit function.

[question everything]

119. LOL Any outhouses in the picture? (nt)

[PVK]

12. Pretty good. n/t

[SoCalDem]

14. My house has appreciated BIG TIME

With the extras we have done to it this year, based on the comps, it's worth $410K... :)..Of course 5 years from now when we finally can sell, who knows what it will be worth :shrug:.. Isnt life interesting:)

[Nicole]

16. I want to buy those houses

that are priced like mine. I could become instantly wealthy.

It has my house listed as $2,401. My house appraised in the 6 figures a month ago when I changed insurance.

[upi402]

18. wow, up $7K in 1 week!

yay!:bounce:
I read on a foreign forum that the UK bubble has burst. I was going to wait until Spring, but may go now. Rent would be high for a while and use a lot of income. I just think prices have to come way down soon. It's like the unreal P/E ratios of the dotcom days. Who has all these well paying jobs?

[radwriter0555]

19. DAMN. The house I bought for 150K in 99, sold for 400K in 2002 is now

valued at 735K.

And the house I sold last year for 525K is valued at $485K, and I bought it for $202K.

DAMN I'm GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD.

[upi402]

21. I hear that! Good "work"!

I had 2 that went kinda like that. Location location location -and hold.*

*unless Bush ruins the United States of America in every way possible.

[question everything]

51. In California, right? (nt)

[radwriter0555]

65. Of course. And those houses were in a dodgy part of Los Angeles,

as we called it, "'Hood Adjacent..."

Best places I ever lived. GOOD neighbors, salt of the earth. Never one iota of trouble or problems other than the occasional loud, good hearted family parties with the BEST musica latina!

I can't believe the house I bought for $150K is now worth $750K. That is just CRAZY!

[azurnoir]

20. lord I hope it's accurate

if so the value of our house has gone up almost 50k in 3 years (even somewhat accurate will do)

[upi402]

22. looks like it. I like the trends graphs over time. Shows values declining.

Except some.
Lower end are increasing as high price pressure causes low end demand to increase.

[shireen]

23. this is seriously depressing

i'm getting started on being a first-time homeowner. this is very very scary.

how can people afford to *live*?!!!!

[question everything]

55. Things are slowing down in many parts of the country

If you are just starting, say, a new job, where you expect your income to grow, start with a small house, perhaps with one or two more owners - but make sure that your papers are such that it would be easy to sell. Eventually you can move to a better house in location that you like.

[justice1]

24. Looks interesting, but my area isn't covered

[Delphinus]

28. Mine isn't either.

I was hoping to get an idea of what things were selling (if they even are), as my house was listed in '04 for a year and didn't sell.

[question everything]

53. Still in beta form., see story from WSJ, below

different coverage for different areaas of the country, for now.

[mmonk]

25. They will have to enter

all comparable sales closely matching any house on the search for it to be accurate (I'm a realtor). Of course, I could see what value they give and run my own comparative market analysis to see how accurate.

[Tennessee Gal]

26. As a real estate agent

I know that the site is totally inaccurate for my area. Prices are on the rise here, but it shows them declining. In fact, we are now in a seller's market getting multiple and full-price offers on some homes.

[ScreamingMeemie]

29. Appraiser here agreeing with you on the faulty value aspect.

Those, as a trend, values are dropping nationwide. You must be in a sweet market. :hi:

[maddezmom]

27. cool site

thanks, I'm saving it :hi:

[ScreamingMeemie]

30. ***This is based on an AVM...automated valuation model, which

have been abandoned by most lenders as inaccurate, in favor of living breathing appraisers. Here's the problem. If you live near a big city with high rates of urban decay, and the streets run through several jurisdictions or towns, you're going to get an *average* value of everything that's sold there. Take Grosse Pointe here. Some houses sell for 1.4 million, while the same street in the city has sales for $23,000. That's not going to average out correctly. Take my word for it. You want the value of your home, hire someone to appraise it. :hi:

[Gormy Cuss]

45. I love it when that happens.

As someone who has worked with predictive models for housing I had to explain over and over again that the model works in the aggregate but is not precise at the micro-level. Your example is a perfect way to describe it.

When we bought our house the appraiser was smiling. We took that as a good sign that the appraisal would support the sales price. A friend who bought a house last year for cash saved $20,000 because the appraiser gave her detailed accounting, system by system and room by room and said he just couldn't justify a higher assessment. Good appraisers are worth the money spent.
:hi:

[question everything]

56. I first heard about it on NPR yesterday

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5196781 and the webmaster, owner - whatever he was called - was specifically asked about it and had a reply.

Either way, it is still being formed, as you can read in more details in the WSJ, below.

[ScreamingMeemie]

60. Already been there...and he's full of crap.

We just talked about this site in my con ed class. There is no way of assessing or formulating true value without a thorough inspection of the home, the surrounding area etc...

AVM did not work out the way they wanted, Flagstar got burned by them, and major banks have turned them away. They now are trying to repackage the same product. I'm sorry, but this is the business I work in. It's fun and games, but shouldn't be taken seriously...because a good percentage of the time it will steer you wrong.

[question everything]

70. Of course. Nothing can replace personal inspection

but where they do have enough data - California, for example - one can get some idea of whether a certain neighborhood sells at $250K or at $400K.

Certainly beats going to the other sites, like Homevalue. com (I think) where you enter your info and then get contacted by an agent.

[laruemtt]

32. no way! they have us at

less than half of what a realtor just told us we could sell for! this can't be right.

[Junkdrawer]

33. I've turned down offers for 30K more that what they listed...

cute, but useless.

[luckypunch]

34. Not even close

I'm a realtor and an appraiser. They have my house valued at least $50,000 over market...I wouldn't even think of listing it anywhere near the value they give.

[question everything]

58. Still being formed

Welcoe to DU

:toast: :bounce:

[ScreamingMeemie]

62. Same product...different name.

:hi:

[sendero]

35. Based on comments here..

... I'm not surprised that it is pretty accurate for my home. I live in a "consistent" neighborhood, where the houses are similar in value.

I'd say the number is within 2-3% of actual value.

[trekbiker]

77. same here.. Very accurate for my nieghborhood in

Vacaville CA. My house was dead on (identical model just sold for the amount stated). The comparable sales is a nice feature. But not accurate at all for my folks house out in the country up in the Sierra foothills.

[mcar]

36. Very cool

Except that it showed my neighbor's house, even though I had put in my address. Weird. I could see my house, right next to my neighbor's.

[CornField]

38. Our area not in database, but Dallas, Iowa (?) is

I've never heard of Dallas Iowa... must be a mistake.

They also have two place I have heard of: Dubuque and Polk counties

[Nimrod2005]

39. OMFG!!!! So right on for my house and my neighbors' homes...

So cool.


THIS IS THE MOST ASWESOME THING ON THE INTERNETS!!!

[MissB]

41. It does lag a couple of years in terms of housing values

The actual market value is a couple hundred grand more than what they show. It is more reflective of the market value on my property tax statement.

Pretty cool, though.

[MissB]

42. I checked the house we sold two years ago

It is showing a value of 449k. We sold it for 365k. I guess that is pretty accurate.

[MissB]

44. And I'm guessing that they are pulling some data from the property tax

statements. My old house, for example, had a twin next door. We did some significant upgrades on the house. There is a difference of nearly $120k between the two houses, according to Zillow. There really isn't that much difference between the exterior of the two houses. So the price difference probably reflects the differences in property taxes.

That would also explain why my current house's value is off by so much - we still haven't closed out a permit, which prevents the city from upping our property taxes significantly.

[Hello_Kitty]

43. Mine's worth 150K more than I paid for it in 1999.

Not bad. :bounce:

[havocmom]

48. It never heard of where I live. Not surprised at all by that

;)

[Nickster]

49. Oh man, that is weird.

Thanks for sharing.

[SpecialK]

50. We JUST bought our house ....

...and the price shown is just a couple grand less than what we purchased for. All in all, in our neighborhood the prices seem extremely accurate!!!

Very cool!

[question everything]

52. Found the story from the WSJ, site is still in "beta", also on NPR

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5196781

The Wall Street Journal

THE MOSSBERG SOLUTION
By WALTER S. MOSSBERG AND KATHERINE BOEHRET

A New Web Site
For Real-Estate Voyeurs
February 8, 2006; Page D1

(snip)

Now there's a new, well-designed, free online service for finding the value of a home that doesn't require you to identify yourself or to communicate with an agent or broker, and provides heaps of information directly to consumers. It's called Zillow, and it is launching today, in beta, or test, form at zillow.com2. Zillow uses data such as tax records, sales history and the actual prices of "comparables" -- homes in your area that are similar to yours -- to come up with an estimate, which it calls a "Zestimate." It backs up the estimate with lavish data -- aerial photos and maps showing prices in a neighborhood; loads of charts and graphs displaying historical data and price movements, as well as details on the size and room totals of a home. It even allows you to enter information, like the types and prices of recent renovations, that might change an estimate.

A home needn't be for sale to be searched in Zillow, which claims to cover 62 million houses and to update its estimates daily. The company, founded by people who formerly ran the Expedia travel Web site, hopes to make money through advertising. When estimating home values, real-estate agents can draw on their industry's massive database, called the Multiple Listing System, as well as on their own local knowledge. Zillow doesn't have access to the MLS or to agents' local savvy. So, it draws on roughly 10 commercial providers of real-estate data, which supply information like a home's sale history; tax assessment and payment history; comparable-home sale prices; and numbers of rooms in a home. This information is largely collected by the commercial-data providers from government records.

Zillow also obtains some government records directly. Zillow then crunches these numbers using its own proprietary computer formula and comes up with an estimate. The company acknowledges that its raw data on comparable sales can be three to six weeks older than the data in the MLS system that agents use. We've been testing Zillow for a couple of days, and we are favorably impressed. The site is fast, broad and deep. It's easy to use and is nicely laid out. It even offers to email updates on its estimates for any property that interests you.

However, there's one major caveat. At least for now, while Zillow is in its beta phase, its data is spotty. For some parts of the country, Zillow has lots of good data, and it works really well. For other areas, it is still collecting and compiling figures and maps, so its results are limited or it can't provide an estimate at all. Also, different cities and counties collect different types of information, which creates big variations in the quality of data. Zillow covers condos in multiple-unit buildings, since they're usually listed in government records as separate homes. It has trouble with co-ops in New York City and certain similar kinds of dwellings in San Francisco.

Over time, Zillow hopes to have solid estimates for all areas. For now, though, it works best in metro areas like Seattle, San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Cleveland. Results are weaker in metro areas like Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago. And they are weaker still in metro areas like New York, Houston and St. Louis. For some cities, including Washington (but not its suburbs), Zillow has so little information -- so far -- that all it can offer is a tax assessment, not a true estimate. For some whole states, like Rhode Island, it has very few cities or counties covered. Because of these issues, Zillow can only generate estimates today for 42 million of its 62 million listed homes. For the others, it offers only basic facts.

(snip)


• Email: [e-mail]

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113935396648967688.html (subscription)

[ryan_cats]

54. Thank you, too cool.

Thank you, too cool.

It doesn't have a satellite view if my current home but it does of my old one. Great tool.

[Snivi Yllom]

57. No wonder real estate agents are pooh poohing this - NY Times article here

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/08/business/08real.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

2 Web Sites Push Further Into Services Real Estate Agents Offer
By DAMON DARLIN
Two real estate Web sites are starting to offer services that could change the way real estate is bought and sold online.

One site, Zillow.com, which will be introduced today, will help consumers obtain more accurate real estate sales information — to the consternation of some real estate agents.

A smaller site, Redfin.com, introduced an unusual new service last week that might be even more disruptive to the real estate industry: the feature automates the process of bidding on a house online.

Zillow is attracting a lot of attention because it obtained $32 million in venture capital financing and its chief executive, Rich Barton, was a creator of Expedia, the online travel agency.

The new site provides data like previous sales prices and the prices of similar properties on 60 million residential properties, information that real estate agents do not display in the public multiple listing service. The site also includes price appreciation (or depreciation) data in a form that resembles stock charts. "It's a lot of data to make you smarter," Mr. Barton said.

In addition, Zillow uses software to offer a free home-value estimator. The "Zestimate" service tries to do what has been a primary function of the real estate agent. And in contrast to many other real estate Web sites, like Realtor.com, run by the National Association of Realtors, or Home Pages.com, owned by Housevalues Inc., Zillow does not try to connect its users with agents.

Many real estate agents worry that Zillow could be a first step in an online evolution that could threaten their $60 billion commission-based business, just as Expedia, Travelocity and other online sites disrupted the business of travel agents.
---------------------------------------snip--------------------------------

[ScreamingMeemie]

61. I'm not an agent...I'm an appraiser. It affects me more.

This is an independent (i.e. not MSM) evaluation of this product and it's brethren. Sorry, Flagstar just lost out a multi million dollar court case due to these.


http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/bulletin/2000-16.txt

The OCC has observed several instances in which decision
makers either relied on erroneous price or exposure
estimates, or on an overly broad interpretation of model
results, with serious consequences for their bank's
reputation and profitability. There are many more instances
in which the incorrect use of models created the potential
for large losses, which were avoided only fortuitously.
This problem is generally referred to as "model risk."

Fortunately, model risk can be considerably reduced.
Sound model building includes rigorous procedures for
"model validation." Model validation not only increases
the reliability of a model, but also promotes improvements
and a clearer understanding of a model's strengths and
weaknesses among management and user groups.

***They simply won't work in most urban areas. Nice of people here to be happy with the consternation of real estate professionlas over an obviously flawed product taking their livelihoods. My children thank you. :hi:

[Snivi Yllom]

68. only a matter of time before realtor services inculding yours are affected

just look at what Craig's list is doing to newspaper ad revenues

[ScreamingMeemie]

79. Ummm...No. I'm not a realtor. I work strictly for banks, and private

individuals. Does this make it okay? :shrug:

[Lex]

76. This zillow has my home's square footage off by nearly 1000 feet.

Not such a good thing.

[ScreamingMeemie]

80. It's the *WalMart* of real estate.

Flagstar just lost millions because of AVMs.

[trekbiker]

78. no kidding. anything that can help crack the real estate racket

is a good thing. No way I'm handing over 6% when I sell this spring.. $30,000 commission??!?!?!! for what??!!

[ScreamingMeemie]

81. Get it through your head...This does not affect the agent as much

as it affects appraisers. It's already been used...It's already been proven a failure. They are just remarketing it to the public. Because the public are sheepy enough to fall for it.


$30,000? for what? I usually don't like agents because they are pushy with people like me (an appraiser), but you're paying for someone else to take over the bullshit job of marketing your house so you can concentrate on the rest of your life. :hi:

[trekbiker]

82. this is just one more chink in the real estate industry

armor. That monopoly needs to be brought down. and lets get rid of their precious little MLS monopoly while we're at it. Sure appraisers dont make the killing that some agents make. But paying $300 for a couple hours of work to an appraiser is also a rip. Actually more like 45 minutes for the last one I had done. I bought my house in 1991 and re-fi'd 4 times. And each time I get screwed for an appraisal?? with a loan to value of under 40%??? a joke. and a ripoff

[ScreamingMeemie]

83. Each time I should do it for free???

What a joke.

[trekbiker]

85. of course not.. but it needs to be reasonable

I dont mind paying my dentist or doctor a few hundred bucks. But some joker with a high school diploma and a tape measure?? I re-fi'd a $130,000 loan on a $550,000 home. Even if I completely trashed my house there is no way the bank was taking any risk with such a low loan to value ratio. A simple look at comparable sales in my nieghborhood would have sufficed. about one minutes work. I can see paying $50. not $300. and there should be no appraisal required in a great many situations, such as mine

also, there is some suspicion that the appraisal industry has contributed to the massive risky loan problem and various real estate bubbles by making sure the appraisals come in high enough to ensure the loans go thru.

sorry, but I have zero respect for the parasite real estate industry. Its a racket that is going to be forced to reform

[ScreamingMeemie]

86. A Joker with a high school diploma? Try college, and then appraising

courses, and then 2000 hours in the field, a state licensing test and then Licensing. You need to learn more about that which you deride.

I'm to take "your word" for what your house contains? I don't think so. Do you know how many times I've been in a house that has no working bathroom? That means fraud. It's not a marketable house.

Your anger should be directed at your lending institute not a hardworking appraiser. No two houses on a street are the same. A "simple" look at comparable sales (80% of which end up not being comparable at all) will not suffice. I suggest you educate yourself on the market and what valuation entails before attempting a sale on your own.

"also, there is some suspicion that the appraisal industry has contributed to the massive risky loan problem and various real estate bubbles by making sure the appraisals come in high enough to ensure the loans go thru." Did you know ( I think not) that appraisers are bound by the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice to perform their appraisals in an ethical manner using due dilligence, and that-if found to be outside of the Standards-they are heavily fined, sometimes imprisoned and risk revocation? Did you know Loan Officers are not? They're not even required to be licensed. While I am sure there are unethical appraisers, just as there are unethical people in every business venue....Your rage is completely misguided and ignorant. Now, I'm going to go look at my college diploma and be grateful I am a professional.

Here's a trick to remember

And, on edit...I put about 8 hours of work into each house I appraise. I also put about $10,000 worth of education, supplies, subcription to listing services (for those comps you rely on)etc each year. By your figuring I should be happy with breaking even. Again, my children thank you for your heartfelt caring.

Home inspector=probably a high school diploma and a tape measure
Real Estate Appraiser=Educated, licensed, insured and required to take ConEd. :hi:

[trekbiker]

94. oh yea?? check this out...

snip:

Consider also that the lending industry routinely supplies appraisers with the very essence of what produces bias in the valuation process, the loan amount.
By providing the loan information, the typical appraiser responds by trying to make the appraisal fit the loan request. Obviously this has little effect on markets where borrowers are seeking mortgages with low loan-to-value ratios. In the case of 80, 90, and 100%+ loans -- the majority of transactions -- appraisers who "make the deal work" are influencing the market cycle, whether they know it, or not, and increasing the risk to the ultimate holders of these loans. Were facts otherwise, real estate lenders would be less inclined to reveal the size of a loan when requesting appraisal services. In that they do so routinely (in purchase money appraisals as well as in refinancings), it must serve their purposes. And it does.

Appraisal industry mantra says appraisals do not influence market prices. Yet, when nearly 100% of purchase money appraisals "hit the number," and when the vast majority of real estate sales are facilitated with high loan-to-value ratios, appraisers are pushing the envelope of real estate prices.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2004/0702.html

[ScreamingMeemie]

96. NEVER in my career have I done what this "editorial" claims.

Editorial=one person's opinion. trekbiker, either educate yourself or don't bother speaking to me. You don't even know what an appraiser does. I don't know of one ethical appraiser who has done what that report claims. Sorry, no dice. Do you get the idea that bad appraisers LOSE THEIR LICENSE? No they don't do so routinely, because it is FRAUD. I am required to keep 7 years of records on the appraisals I do, including the order. It is against the LAW for me to take on an assignment based upon an agreed value. It is against the LAW for a bank to with hold payment for a closed sale of a specified value. Please, try again.

That took you an awful long time to find. Why not try looking up licensing requirements instead?

From your same "editorial":

With that fact of life out of the way, let us take a cursory look at the current regulatory environment influencing the appraisal industry, and the ramifications to the public interest. Our backdrop is The Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s. It culminated in the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA). That was the outgrowth of Congressional inquiry into the reasons behind the S&L debacle. Among other things, Congress found repeated instances of disreputable appraisers working in collusion with unethical lenders to fraudulently inflate the appearance of property values. Though well intended, FIRREA did little to prevent such abuses.

None-the-less, FIRREA did mandate that states regulate the activities of real estate appraisers. Oversight is by way of Federally supervised guidelines promulgated by the newly formed -- and by all appearances independent -- Appraisal Foundation. Separately, guidelines for appraisal practice and the engagement of appraisal services are issued by certain government sponsored entities (GSEs).

[trekbiker]

106. read the last part of the article. This guy has a ton of

experience in your field. I'm sure you are an honest appraiser. But this guy is pointing out that there is a lot of trouble brewing and not all appraisers are equal. Many dont even realize they are in bed with the lending institutions. Just look at all the crazy loan instruments out there that didnt even exist back in the last real estate bubble in '89 - '90. That bubble just deflated a little. This time could be a lot worse. the banks just want to push product. its all bundled and sold to investors. feds (tax payers) will get stuck with the tab when this blows. Could be much worse than the S&L crisis and subsequent bail out.

[ScreamingMeemie]

107. and he's full of crap. Again, direct your anger on those who deserve

it...the Loan officers... not honest and decent people...doing their job. Honestly, I cannot believe this? It's a slap in the face. And yet, you defend the fact that I'm whore basically. Good god man, people go to JAIL over such fraudulence. Here's a secret...I get this from actually doing appraisals not just from reading editorials "there is NO true bubble". Never has been. I mean you are willing to take a few comps..and justify a value. That in itself could cause you a whole world of trouble.

[Snivi Yllom]

97. one of the big reasons we are about to have a huge housing pop

Appraisers "hitting" the number to make the loans work, many times for individuals who cannot afford that much mortgage.

[ScreamingMeemie]

98. And I also suggest you educate yourself. I "hit a number" and I face

stiff fines, a possible prison sentence and license revocation. Does that sound wise to you? Check your state website for disciplinary actions. Loan officers would like to blame their bad lending practices on appraisers quite a bit. It's not the "cush" job you think. It's a lot of work, I take pride in it and I find your opinion to be degrading to myself.

I suggest you start here:

http://www.appraisalfoundation.org/s_appraisal/sec.asp?CID=3&DID=3

[sendero]

88. They should worry...

... because their monopoly on housing sales is in its death throes.

Its not that RE agents don't EARN that 6%, most of them do. But they do it doing a lot of stuff that doesn't need to be done. Driving people all over town and such.

Not that I care, I've bought my last house - the next one I will build :)

[ScreamingMeemie]

89. And good people, like myself, are going to lose their jobs...

Yay. I don't earn 6% of your home's value as an appraiser.


One last time, this was first marketed to banks. Flagstar took them up on it (no more paying appraisers) and lost their shirt in courts, because it's impossible to valuate by computer program. So, what to do next? I know...re market it to the sheeple.


It's sad to see.

[Book Lover]

92. Thanks for your insight

I see this as a gossiping tool, really, "Do you know how much they got for their house? And they're only two blocks away from us..."

[sendero]

103. Yes it is...

... although I'm less sure that computers can replace appraisers than I am that they can obviate much of the work a realtor now does.

Believe me, I know about displacement, and I'm sorry to see you affected.

[slackmaster]

113. Automated Valuation Models will NEVER put appraisers out of work

They can be used as a due diligence check to monitor human appraisers, but your profession is safe.

One last time, this was first marketed to banks.

AVMs are still being marked to banks, insurance companies, brokers, title companies, etc. but they are not selling, for exactly the reasons you mention.

So, what to do next? I know...re market it to the sheeple.

In this case, the business model is give your AVM a snazzy interface and to the sheeple for free so you can get them to patronize your advertisers.

[ScreamingMeemie]

117. No they are not...Not really. To banks that is. Flagstar got bitten, bad,

by using an AVM in the Detroit metro area, so it's being remarketed...for selling and other appraisal needs.

[likesmountains 52]

59. It is accurate for my area ...wow!

[BooScout]

63. It's waaaaay wrong....

For the house we sold last fall. Over 100K off.

[peacebuzzard]

64. Thanks ... great link

[in_cog_ni_to]

66. There are no homes on my street.

:scared: Interesting. That's what I got in my search. Does that mean I'm homeless now?:cry:

[ima_sinnic]

69. WAY off

I researched the duplexes that had sold in my neighborhood a few months ago before selling mine.
First the site shows NONE of these and then labels one down the street from mine at over a million dollars -- but all really sold for about 100K.
useless.

[trekbiker]

71. very cool.. thanks

[gkhouston]

72. now this is creepy

Our house isn't listed, but everything else on the block is. So, fellow DUer's, how shall I tell my husband that we're inhabiting a zone of non-existence? :-)

[Lex]

73. The square footage of my house is off by 1000 square feet!

It says 970 when it's really something like 1870.

[ScreamingMeemie]

91. The reason for that is many times a city will only record on public

records a ground floor. Is your home two stories?

[taught_me_patience]

75. Here's a 10 year chart of the house I'm renting

Culver city, CA... not that nice of a place 4bd, 2.5bath 1,800 s.f.

NOW TELL ME THERE IS NO BUBBLE!!!!

[yorkiemommie1]

84. hi from torrance!

:hi:

[ScreamingMeemie]

87. There is no bubble.

AVM's don't work. Ask Flagstar Bank. :hi:

[slackmaster]

111. The 10-year chart for my house is rather alarming

Zillow thinks the market in my neighborhood peaked out about a year ago and is on a slide.

That may actually be true, but displaying a past trend is definitely not the same as predicting the future. Professional data modellers and analysts avoid the latter like the plague.

[Generator]

90. Very accurate!

In Portland, Or. They got the year built wrong by a year-but the prop taxes were exact as was the square footage, rooms and lot. I think the "zestimate" was a little high though by about $20-$25K.

[Flying Dream Blues]

95. That was cool...I think it had a pretty accurate number for our house

[Lisa0825]

99. I recently checked all the houses on my streets' tax values...

The values this site pulled up look like the previous assessments. Mine went up $6K, and the old value is still there. Still, very cool site!

[unblock]

100. 100% useless for me

they apparently don't have enough data in my neighborhood, so all i get is the tax data. they don't even have a record of my purchase price!

[slackmaster]

112. Assessors in your state don't track property characteristics

They don't even provide the standard parcel maps available in most areas.

"Hedonic" valuation models require physical characteristics, which are not available in public information in NJ. Neighborhood sales trends are very inaccurate unless all the homes are exactly the same. Tax data is usually all you can use in that state (and many others for various reasons).

[Critters2]

101. Not a real surprise

but it shows no home at my address. I live in a parsonage, so it's not on the tax rolls. I have to tell the IRS its market value for self-employment tax purposes. A parishioner who's a realtor gives me the figure, so I was curious as to whether the site would agree with her. BUt they got nuthin'.

It shows my dad's house as 1 story when it's two. And no info for my last house, which wasn't a parsonage.

So, interesting, but not terribly helpful.

[mcscajun]

104. Accurate? Nah. They've got my house worth $100,000 more than

even the most Desperate homebuyer would pay for it, listing the top value at twice what it was assessed for only a year and half ago, and I thought that was overly optimistic. :shrug: I'd be happy to sell it for anything near $180,000 and run for the hills. :)

They didn't have any room info or even sq. footage on my home, that they do know sits on a 0.05 acre lot. That's not a typo folks; my lot is 1/20th of an acre. A tiny home of under 900 sq. ft. sits on that. It is by my knowledge and their admission, THE cheapest home in the neighborhood. It is also the smallest. "1% of homes in the ***** ZIP code have a value lower than this home." They did have the most recent and very accurate assessment data on my home. So, would you pay between $247,558 - $331,953 for a 100 year old cottage on a postage stamp lot in a rather mundane low-end NJ suburb?

I wouldn't, and I live in it!
:rofl:
I'm definitely in agreement that this thing is a long way from getting out of beta. It was fun looking at the pictures and data, though. :)

[slackmaster]

110. So far all the Zestimates I've looked at are running high

That may be the result of an INTENTIONAL fudge factor in their valuation model, to get you all excited and want to patronize one of their advertisers.

Their property characteristics are not always accurate either. I'm looking at one that I know is a quadplex (you can easily tell that on the photo) and the site calls it "Single". In that particular case I know that the county (or township) assessor's data does not include property characteristics, so Zillow is getting that from appraisal data or some kind of automated modeling. Or maybe just a bonehead default value. Plenty of opportunities for human and programmatic errors there.

[slackmaster]

108. Pretty cool interface, I have some issues with their levels of hype

My disclaimer: I work for a company that deals in large amounts of real estate data, of precisely the type that Zillow uses. I know exactly where the majority of Zillow's property data comes from.

Mr. Barton claims that Zillow has coverage of every residential property in the USA.

See http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060209/news_1b9realweb.html

That is far from true. There are large gaps in their coverage.

Their claims of accuracy on the automated valuation model (AVM), which appears to be a new one they developed from scratch, are highly questionable. A year ago AVM's were the great white hope of the industry, but that hasn't really panned out. Most experts consider FreddieMac's Home Value Explorer (HVE) to be the most accurate and reliable AVM available. Resellers sell HVE reports to real estate professionals, insurance companies, lenders, etc. for about $25 per property. I cannot believe that a startup company using a newly created AVM and gives reports away for free could possibly come close to HVE's level of accuracy.

Other than that, it's a very cool site!

[mousie]

115. interesting link! THANKS! n/t

[Maru Kitteh]

116. They don't do anywhere near my zip code in Nebraska

woulda been fun though.

[seemunkee]

118. They don't cover DC suburbs

[Blue_Tires]

120. lol...my home isn't listed

but it is great to see those photos...anyone know where else i can find (free) hi-res images online of my home?

[enid602]

122. judgement day

Insert the addresses of your co-workers who are always bragging about what beautiful mansions they have. You might be surprised.

[stumblnrose]

124. 20 percent accurate

I sell real estate in Washington state and looked at homes that either just sold or are pending and I know the sale price whose tax records reflect what's actually in the home now. Of the ten six were overvalued and two were undervalued by enough to concern me for a possible client.

I know the industry is vulnerable to pressure from all directions. The banks keep grumbling about busting up the status quo. Personally I have no desire to see a bunch of techy nerds who contribute nothing to the larger economy getting rich off of some questionable numbers. Yeah, I know realtors have no intrinsic value but I was an artist for decades and can't retire on my Screen Actors pension plus I love what I do. Living in Seattle I can attest to the fact that tech money does not trickle down except maybe to REI for some rock climbing shoes, certainly not to education or arts or the local gospel mission.

As for all you FSBOids, believe me I don't want your bidness either. For the most part FSBO homes are not as well maintained as those sold on the MLS and I will take my clients elsewhere.