Reply #9: Derivative traders see Dec US payrolls at 198,300 [View All]

[UpInArms]

Well see how close the gamblers come to the reported number :eyes:

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Traders in the final of four derivatives auction ahead of the government's December U.S. non-farm payrolls report bet on Friday the U.S. economy generated about 198,300 jobs in December, or just shy of what economists are expecting.

The median forecast in a poll of economists conducted by Reuters was 200,000. The report will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT).

The implied forecasts in the derivatives auctions edged down in each successive auction this week, with the first one on Wednesday yielding a 216,300 forecast.

One noteworthy aspect of Friday's auction was a fresh concentration of betting below economists' expectations, with traders putting a 15 percent probability of a result between 125,000 and 150,000 jobs.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-06T132028Z_01_N06297349_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PAYROLLS-DERIVATIVES.XML">...more...