Reply #76: I'd be happy to [View All]

[RZM]

I of course have no access to inside information, but here's my take:

I don't think a lot of DUers understand that there is an ironic connection between one of their greatest fears (President Sarah Palin) and one of their greatest hopes (George W. Bush indicted for war crimes). My personal belief is that indicting GWB in a foreign and/or international justice system for war crimes would have earth-shattering political consequences back home -- my belief is that this would damage the Democratic brand to such a degree that it would take many years for it to fully recover.

Think about it. How would people react to George W. Bush being formally accused of war crimes? Reactions would vary, but just about the only group to fully endorse it would be DU-types, who in the end do not comprise a very large slice of the electorate. Most people from the center to the right, even those without a lot of love for GWB, would be extremely hostile to this -- they would perceive it as a slight to American sovereignty and a gross national insult. The right could spin this so easily -- arguing that saying GWB is a war criminal is akin to saying that the military men and women who followed his orders are war criminals too and that it's an insult to the thousands of soldiers who died for Iraqi freedom -- etc. etc.. The news would galvanize and unite the right, just in time for 2012. On the left, like I said, full-throated support for the action would be restricted to a relatively small group on the far end of the spectrum. DU would be united behind it, but not a lot of other Democrats would. The closer you got to the center, the less support for this you would see. It would poll badly I imagine -- I'd be surprised if more than 20 percent of people would say they thought it was a good idea. It would be an absolute loser for elected officials to support it and you would see most Democrats joining with the right to decry it. It would divide the Democrats just as much as it united the Republicans.

Republicans would sense blood in the water and milk this for absolutely everything it was worth -- campaigning on it non-stop and working hard to convince voters that a vote for a Democrat, no matter what they say, is a vote for saying GWB and our military are war criminals -- since Obama 'let it happen'. The center would break hard for the Republicans on this issue alone, opening up a real possibility for a turnover in the White House and all but guaranteeing large Republican gains in Congress.

I think this is the main reason that this Democratic administration wants nothing at all to do with this. Keen political minds advise the Democrats and they know full well this is a losing proposition for them.