Reply #10: I've seen things lately saying India is going to outpace China [View All]

[starroute]

The Indian population is, on average, more highly educated. It's also younger -- China's one-child policy has resulted in an aging population.

India's economic development is more home-grown. It hasn't depended on massive foreign investment, and it hasn't been based on selling cheap goods to other countries.

India is a more open society. India is strongly encouraging the spread of Internet access, where China keeps trying to censor it. China is in the untenable position of trying to allow economic freedom without political freedom, and that is going to lead to increasing unrest. China is also having major problems with corruption.

India is quietly maneuvering for great-power status. As nearly as I can tell, this involves (1) avoiding war with Pakistan and promoting a South Asian trade zone of which India would be the center and (2) forming connections with both Israel and (more tentatively) Iran, with the long-term aim of setting up an alliance of non-Arab nations that would dominate the Middle East from both ends.

I myself don't know whether it's India or China that is ultimately going to come out ahead. But I think it's interesting that after several years where all we've been hearing is China-China-China, people are suddenly starting to notice that India is positioning itself very shrewdly for success in the long run.