Reply #9: Quick Analysis: [View All]

[poskonig]

Dean still has his Borg Collective, is polling well in the primary states he needs to win, but most importantly, has that Q3 15 million going into the seventh inning. Plus Dean still has the same talented campaign staff.

Clark, despite the "draft" ads, is at 2-3% in Iowa and NH. Even if he gets the 15-20% undecided, he still has to chip into Dean's 38% and Kerry's 26% in NH, for example. A similar situation exists in Iowa.

If Dean does lose, Gephardt will be the guy that beats him. If Gephardt can win Iowa, his odds are very good in SC, Michigan, and Oklahoma. And a Clark run only insures this, since a Clark candidacy doesn't even touch Gephardt's voting base, i.e. working class voters more concerned about putting bread on the table than Bush's silly wars.