The Kerry campaign has hit the reef, and is sinking. [View All]

[WilliamPitt]

Campaign manager Jim Jordan was fired in a shakeup. Now, Kerry's press secretary Robert Gibbs and deputy finance director Carl Schindlow have also quit. Gibbs pointedly quit to protest the firing of Jordan. This is, to a certain extent, expected. Campaign managers have the loyalty of other staffers, and when they get dumped, it is not hard to understand why some would leave as well in anger.

But now the collapse of Kerry's campaign structure is the story of his campaign, and will be for a while now. Nothing of his message, his ideas, his policy issues, or anything substantive will get covered. The press loves to write 'process' stories, i.e. the political machinations behind a decision, rather than stories about issues or ideals. That's been standard for a while. It's not "Candidate X believes in workers rights," but "Candidate X is trying to court the union vote."

The process behind the implosion of Kerry's campaign will be the story now.

The New Hampshire primary is January 27, 11 weeks from now. Kerry must:

* Get his new campaign manager in harness;

* Find a new press secretary;

* Find a new deputy finance director;

* Quell any other potential revolts within his campaign staff;

*Figure out a way to get the press to cover something besides the fact that he lost his manager, press secretary and deputy finance director;

* Figure out a way to overcome the double-digit lead enjoyed in New Hampshire by candidate Dean;

- who certainly and demonstrably will do nothing to help him in this process;

- who is sending 6,000 of his own troops into New Hampshire in January because he apparently knows how to win;

* Be able to do this subject-change through Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years when no one but no one but dorks like us will be paying attention to anything but turkeys and shopping and decorations;

* Simultaneously deal with the fact that only the base of the Democratic Party votes in the primaries, and the base doesn't like him to begin with for the most part because of his Iraq war vote.

He has less than 100 days to do this.

I'm a Kerry guy, and I have been watching this campaign like a hawk. The wheels have come off, and it will take a NASCAR-level pit crew to get them back on again in time to salvage New Hampshire. Given what just happened within his campaign, I don't think that pit crew is going to be in place anytime soon, and every second counts now. If Kerry loses New Hampshire, he's done. Turn out the lights. Find another campaign.

I'll be happy to have any fellow Kerry supporters convince me I am wrong here. I don't think you can do it, but I'm all ears.