Maybe Democrats need to calm down [View All]

[mlevans]

An article by Gary Younge in yesterday's Guardian online suggests that American Democrats ought to stop flying into a panic every time another of these national polls indicate the McCain/Palin ticket has picked up a bit of a lead over Obama/Biden. Following is some of the rationale the reporter uses to back up his assertions.

We ought to give some thought to the fact that just because the majority of our fellow travelers think the country is headed in the wrong direction doesn't mean they all agree on the direction it should be headed. This race was never going to be a landslide, despite a strong sense of voter dissatisfaction over the policies of the last 8 years and the party primarily responsible for them.

We need to consider that Obama tends to be a late finisher. Six weeks prior to the Iowa caucuses, he trailed Hilary Clinton by 6%. He was down by 19% and 14% in New Hampshire and South Carolina respectively. We know how those races turned out.

The main thing though, according to the article, is that our electoral college system gives an advantage to Obama. He leads McCain in all of the states that Kerry won in 2004, and has commanding leads over McCain in Iowa and New Mexico. That represents 12 of the 18 electoral votes needed to make Barack Obama our next president. Two more states, Michigan and New Hampshire, bring the total to 21; Obama leads in both of them, but it's pretty tight. Obama also leads narrowly in 4 of the 8 states won by Bush in '04. McCain leads in 3 of them and Virginia is basically neck-and-neck.

It's obviously not going to be a cake-walk. However, if any party ought to be antsy right now, I think it is the GOP. What else is the selection of Sarah Mooselini, Princess of Pork, besides a move born of desperation?

To read the rest of the article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/09/uselections2008.usa