Reply #6: I Am Not Predicting a Dean Win in South Carolina [View All]

[tsipple]

I don't think Dean will target the state. In my most likely scenario, I think Edwards or Clark wins South Carolina, and then Dean tries to knock out the South Carolina winner in the next round.

If Dean were to run the board and win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, it's all over right there (assuming he also wins all but Missouri to Gephardt -- he could also tolerate a loss somewhere else that day). I don't think that's likely, though. If it's Edwards it's over in Idaho on February 24th. If it's Clark it goes into March 2nd. (Again, my most likely scenario. That's the fun part, though: this stuff is rather unpredictable.)

No one has this thing locked up by any means. Every candidate in my scenario(s) has a lot of hard work ahead.