Reply #18: The Gloom and Doom Forecasts [View All]

[On the Road]

generally forecast things which are outside of modern economic experience, so there would really be no precedents or comparison points.

Having said that, the disappearance of manufacturing is a bit overstated:

China will gradually take over the role of the US as the world's largest manufacturer but will do this only by 2020, with the US's position in the global league table of manufacturers remaining surprisingly strong, according to an authoritative economic study.

Global Insight, a Washington-based economics consultancy, forecasts that the US will keep its share of global manufacturing output above 20 per cent at least until 2024 goes against the widespread feeling, at least in the US, that the country is losing ground rapidly.

"If you told most people in the US that the country was still the biggest manufacturer and is likely to remain so for some time, they would say you were lying," said Jim Womack, chairman of the US-based Lean Enterprise Institute, a research group. "There's a lot of negative feeling in the US and this leaves people thinking the country is doing worse than it really is."

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/pol116/manufacturing.htm

Yes, if transport becomes too expensive, the US will make more of its own manufactured goods, and it won't take that many years. US companies that send production offshore have the knowledge to bring to back if the economics are better. Will the falling dollar, I suspect that's already happening in some industries.