Reply #2: 7/21 11:00 AM EDT - Dolly 65 ENE Progreso, Mexico - Max Sust 50 1005 Mb Will Strengthen Over Gulf [View All]

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Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 211454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211156.shtml?