Reply #71: Here are free links to the full papers - kristopher is correct [View All]

[bananas]

In post #12 kristopher said:

This is from 2002 and the final sentence regarding the need for R&D has since been shown to be overly pessimistic. Existing technologies are completely able to deliver the fundamental infrastructure and further developments will only enhance the economics.

His statement is correct - yes, it's at odds with the 2002 paper, because the 2002 paper has since been shown to be overly pessimistic.
The summary website you used quotes the 2004 Pacala-Socolow paper right below their quote from the 2002 Hoffert paper.
The 2004 Pacala-Socolow paper says:

Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world's energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.

If you use "the google", you can find the full papers online for free:
The 2004 Pacala-Socolow paper: http://carbonsequestration.us/Papers-presentations/htm/Pacala-Socolow-ScienceMag-Aug2004.pdf
The 2002 Hoffert paper: http://fire.pppl.gov/science_adv_energy_103102.pdf

It's been five years, there has been a lot of follow-up work since then.
Joe Romm has an excellent analysis of both technology and policy at Climate Progress:

How the world can (and will) stabilize at 350 to 450 ppm: The full global warming solution
March 26, 2009

In this post I will lay out “the solution” to global warming, focusing primarily on the 12 to 14 “stabilization wedges.” This post is an update to “Is 450 ppm (or less) politically possible? Part 2: The Solution.”

I have argued that stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide at 450 ppm or lower is not politically possible today, but that it is certainly achievable from an economic and technological perspective (see Part 1). I do, however, believe humanity will do it since the alternative is Hell and High Water.

It would require some 12-14 of Princeton’s “stabilization wedges” — strategies and/or technologies that over a period of a few decades each reduce global carbon emissions by one billion metric tons per year from projected levels (see technical paper here, less technical one here). The reason that we need twice as many wedges as Princeton’s Pacala and Socolow have said we need was explained in Part 1. That my analysis is largely correct can be seen here: “IEA report, Part 2: Climate Progress has the 450-ppm solution about right.”

I agree with the IPCC’s detailed review of the technical literature, which concluded in 2007 that “The range of stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available and those that are expected to be commercialised in coming decades.” The technologies they say can beat 450 ppm are here. Technology Review, one of the nation’s leading technology magazines, also argued in a cover story two years ago, “It’s Not Too Late,” that “Catastrophic climate change is not inevitable. We possess the technologies that could forestall global warming.”

I also agree with McKinsey Global Institute’s 2008 Research in Review: Stabilizing at 450 ppm has a net cost near zero.

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