Reply #12: And the history is how we get projections [View All]

[Terry in Austin]

We look at the demand rate, the discovery rate, world oil reserves and the depletion rate, and get a pretty good idea of when petroleum-based business as usual becomes extremely unlikely.

Oil production stopped increasing in 2005. It's plateaued right now, and will soon be in decline -- five years is a generous estimate. Meanwhile, demand keeps growing.

Recent history shows that we use about four barrels of oil for every new barrel discovered. No one is able to identify where the new reserves are that could get us back to break-even.

We would have to discover the equivalent of one new Saudi Arabia every five years. Clearly, that's not happening.

If you become dissatisfied with the belief that we can maintain our present oil consumption levels indefinitely, it's easy enough to get the facts of the matter. Unpleasant, yes, but also honest.