From Petroleum News - "Impressions From Berlin" - Re. ASPO Conference [View All]

[hatrack]

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"The Berlin meeting promised to be interesting because it pitted the proponents of fairly immediate peak oil against the Establishment, represented by the likes of BP, ExxonMobil, the International Energy Agency, the United States Geological Survey, the Energy Information Agency within the U.S. Department of Energy, and Aramco, the Saudi Oil Co. Those represent fairly substantial Goliaths.

The Davids were Dr. Colin Campbell, an avuncular and amusing geologist from Ireland who has single handedly used his retirement to raise awareness of the probable imminence of Peak Oil, and Matthew Simmons, the above-mentioned energy investment banker.

Simmons is a superb analyst who has the singular skill of presenting complex data with believable clarity. They have lots of worthy, well qualified disciples, but the arguments between the two sides have usually been whether the data supports an imminent approach to reaching Peak Oil, or whether it will not occur for a decade or three. The Davids are worried that we should be already preparing for the inevitably decline in crude oil supply, while the Goliaths think that the world will have plenty of oil for at least 20 years of growth.

The workshop was not a disappointment. The two sides slogged it out, albeit, politely. The geological arguments were fascinating if only because they largely pitted former, older, oil company geologist against, current, younger, oil company geologists. Needless to say, the time gap between the two sides was not resolved — they agreed to differ. But the rest of the conference attendees totally accepted the reality, sooner or later, of Peak Oil, and immediately initiated a serious debate of what nations need to do about it.

Davids triumph at conference

One had to conclude that the Davids triumphed on the day, and whether their timing is correct or not is immaterial because something needs to be done to face the aftermath of Peak Oil. The conference, despite the international flavor of its attendees, hardly mentioned the 800 pound energy gorilla, the United States of America. The European Union feels big enough to look after itself, and nearly all the solutions to its energy future during the decline of oil are more concerned with reducing CO2 pollution than coping with the economic upheavals that oil shortages might bring about. The acceptance of Global Warming and the need to address it is a dangerous fundamental difference between the United States and Europe over our energy futures."

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