Reply #33: Phoenix may prove my theory in a couple of years ... [View All]

[spin]

Phoenix crime continues to drop in first half of 2010
by Michael Ferraresi - Sept. 15, 2010

The number of reported crimes in Phoenix and the overall crime rate continued to plummet in the first half of 2010 as the city reached 20-year lows in some categories, according to police statistics released this week.

Phoenix police also said that homicide detectives are clearing nearly 80 percent of the city's homicide investigations, the highest rate in 17 years.

Police leaders credited the lower numbers to more than three years of detailed crime-suppression efforts, more emphasis on crime statistics to identify problem areas, stronger investigative partnerships with other law enforcement agencies and closer involvement with neighborhood groups.emphasis added

The downward crime trend continued through the first several months of this year in Phoenix, according to a Phoenix Police Crime Analysis and Research Unit report.

The summary report shows fewer 2010 reports of every major crime - including homicide, rape, robbery and theft - compared with the same time period the previous year.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/phoenix/articles/2010/09/15/20100915phoenix-crime-rate-drops-first-half-2010.html

New York City has draconian gun laws but also has a low level of crime.

New York City crime rates at record low: police
Mon Dec 28, 2009 3:44pm EST

(Reuters) - This year has been the safest in New York City in more than four decades, with the murder rate down to levels not seen since the early 1960s, police said on Monday.

As of Sunday, 461 murders had been committed, down from 516 in 2008 and the lowest number since comparable record-keeping began in 1963, the New York Police Department said.

***snip***

The FBI also said New York was the safest U.S. big city in 2009.

Crime in New York has been falling for several years in a decline widely attributed to a "broken windows" strategy of no tolerance for even the smallest infraction and the system of identifying and addressing problem areas.emphasis added

In announcing the 2009 statistics, Mayor Michael Bloomberg also gave credit to his efforts to clamp down on illegal guns.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BR38320091228

Bloomburg may be right that his efforts to crack down on illegal guns may be helping, but New York City had basically the same draconian gun laws during its crime peak as it has today.

The Sullivan Act, also known as the Sullivan Law, is a controversial gun control law in New York State. Upon first passage, the Sullivan Act required licenses for New Yorkers to possess firearms small enough to be concealed. Possession of such firearms without a license was a misdemeanor, carrying them was a felony. The possession or carrying of weapons such as brass knuckles, sandbags, blackjacks, bludgeons or bombs was a felony, as was possessing or carrying a dagger, "dangerous knife" or razor "with intent to use the same unlawfully". Named for its primary legislative sponsor, state senator Timothy Sullivan, a notoriously corrupt Tammany Hall politician, it dates to 1911, and is still in force, making it one of the older existing gun control laws in the United States.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sullivan_Act

Crime in New York City

Violent crime in New York City has decreased in the last fifteen years, and the murder rate in 2007 was at its lowest level since at least 1963, when reliable statistics were first kept and the city had half a million fewer residents.<1><2> Crime rates spiked in the 1980s and early 1990s as the crack epidemic hit the city. During the 1990s the New York City Police Department (NYPD) adopted CompStat, broken windows policing and other strategies in a major effort to reduce crime. The city's dramatic drop in crime has been attributed by criminologists to these policing tactics, the end of the crack epidemic and demographic changes.<3><4> There is evidence that the data may have been manipulated to create the sense of a more secure atmosphere.<5>

***snip***

Crime in New York City was high in the 1980s during the Mayor Edward I. Koch years, as the crack epidemic hit New York City, and peaked in 1990,<2> the first year of Mayor David Dinkins' administration (1990–1993) and started its current run of lower crime rates. During the administrations of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (1994–2001), the drop in crime accelerated, continuing at a slower rate under Mayor Michael Bloomberg (2002–present). Although many commentators have suggested that the New York City Police Department's adoption of CompStat, broken windows policing, and other strategies during the administration of Rudolph Giuliani were responsible for the drop in crime, some studies argued that the dramatic reduction in crime was strongly correlated with the increases in the number of police officers that started under Mayor Dinkins and continued through the Giuliani administration. In the 2005 book, Freakonomics, authors Steven Levitt and Steven Dubner provided a statistical argument that attributed much of the drop in crime to the legalization of abortion in the seventies, as they suggest that many of the would be neglected children and criminals were never born.

***snip***

In 2006, as part of Mayor Michael Bloomberg's gun control efforts, the city approved new legislation regulating handgun possession and sales. The new laws established a gun offender registry, required city gun dealers to inspect their inventories and file reports to the police twice a year, and limited individual handgun purchases to once every 90 days. The regulations also banned the use and sale of kits used to paint guns in bright or fluorescent colors, on the grounds that such kits could be used to disguise real guns as toys.emphasis added

In July 2007, the city planned to install an extensive web of cameras and roadblocks designed to detect, track and deter terrorists called Lower Manhattan Security Initiative, which is similar to the City of London's "ring of steel".<14>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_New_York_City

It's my theory that the restrictive gun laws in NYC do little to reduce crime and in fact may result in many tragic incidences where armed individuals may have been able to successfully defend themselves against deadly criminal attacks.

But Bloomberg's efforts to crack down on illegal guns should prove far more effective. Taking guns away from honest people does little, taking guns away from criminals yields immediate and long term results.

The solutions to our crime problem are complicated and expensive. Better policing is the best start, followed by many other expensive programs to improve education and job creation. Also legalizing some drugs may help reduce the impact of drug gangs, but I fear that these gangs will adapt to survive and continue to be a major crime problem.