Reply #82: unwilling to support a war against Iran: YES!! sympathetic toward Iran: NO!! [View All]

[Douglas Carpenter]

In that way it is similar toward the attitude toward Iraq in the lead up to the 2003 U.S. invasion.

Shiite versus Sunni and Arab versus Persian ancient rivalries are just as strong if not stronger than ancient quarrels that might confound the Israel/Palestine issue. In fact this is one of the reasons I am confident that peace between Israel and the Arab and Muslim world is more than possible. Shiite versus Sunni, and Persian versus Arab suspicions and sometimes recriminations are just as deep and profound, if not more so, then Arab versus Israeli or Jew versus Muslim suspicions and recriminations. Yet, recognizing the consequences of open conflict as well as the benefit of trade and relationships based on mutual interest have made the guns fall silent and a desire for a working and peaceful coexistence.

There is now a great deal of contact between Iran and the Gulf states; joint commercial and business adventures, flights several times a day between Gulf state cities and Iran and a large number of expatriates and living and doing business in each others countries.

There would be no support from the populace for a strike on Iran as this would inevitably draw the Gulf states directly into the line of fire from Iranian retaliation. In just the past few years, the Gulf states have experienced as a result of sky-high oil prices an absolutely massive level of development. I was in Bahrain just a month ago - first time in about ten years - Bahrain's skyline has gone from looking like a typical Middle Eastern city - to looking like an ultra-modern North American city, just within the past five years. First time I visited Dubai was in 1989. One could have pretty much walked around the whole town in those days. Now, it is as massive and ultra-modern as an number of great North American cities. There is no way the people of the Gulf states would support a military action that has the potential for ruining everything. It would be technically and logistically infeasible to carry out a massive attack on Iran that is capable of downgrading any nuclear program or degrading their military capabilities without the cooperation of the Arab Gulf states. There is no way such cooperation would be willingly granted for such an attack.

Still a nuclear armed Iran would not at all be welcomed.