Reply #4: Well, its a case of asking yourself: how bad can it get? [View All]

[shaayecanaan]

If the government remains in power, and the STL continues along its course, it can get plenty bad, at least if the government attempts to enforce the decisions of the Tribunal. Hariri has co-operated with the STL from the start, and he's going to find it hard to climb down from his tree now without looking like a total wuss.

On the other hand, if the opposition is in power then it avoids the possibility of a military response by Hezbollah to any indictments - it is hard, after all, to riot against yourself. And Hezbollah are pretty good at keeping the peace. Not as good as Syria, of course, but I suppose that Jumblatt is worried that if civil hostilities break out again, the return of pax Syriana may be very well on the cards. And he'd much rather have Hezbollah to deal with than Syria.

Its worth noting that Hezbollah arent heavyweights in an electoral sense. They control 13 out of a total of 57 seats in the opposition, which is led by Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement. If they're lucky they might get 3 cabinet posts. And whether they are in government or not does not really affect their strength as a paramilitary force.

And of course, Jumblatt still controls his ten seats. If March 8 make a hash of it he can always return to the cross benches. Maybe March 14 will be prepared by then to toss Hariri.

The only real negative of a March 14 led government is the inevitable cooling of relations with Western governments, but that is only a comparatively small negative. The Western powers were already so fitful in their support of the Lebanese government that the absence of said support will make very little difference.