Reply #16: Another inconsistancy [View All]

[Nicholas_J]

Is that now the results from Gallops state polls will place Kerry with a firm lead in both the election projection and electoral vote.com projections for the electoral college. Bush lad by ten electoral votes in election projection, but the recent changes in state polls will bring Kerry into the lead there and in may even bring Kerry up to 270 in electoral vote. com. With such a large lead in the national vote, the possibility for Kerry to be ahead of Bush in the electoral college would be difficult and for him to actually be leading Bush would be impossible. In order to be close in the electoral college, the candidate have to be somewhere within five percent of each other in the popular vote.

Such differences between the two candidates would necessitate Bush being winning in the electoral college according to CNN's own polls but in fact, the most recent CNN electoral college projections have had Bush finally fall below the 270 threshhold. Since CNN is basing its projections on Gallop polls, the discrepancy makes it probable that the national poll is way skrewed towards REpublicans.


Another pollster seems to have the most likely balance between Republicans and Democrats when it does its polls. American Research Group polls show a steady 35 percent REpublican and 38 percent Democrat which seems to be closest to the actual breakdown of registered voters in the country. ARG does not pre suppose a certain percentage likely to vote as Gallop does but invariably when they do random polls they come up ewith something close to this three percent difference in all of their polls.