269-269 tie actually not that unlikely....(on edit) [View All]

[Perky]

For those following the EV closely on Electoral-vote.com. there are several scenarios which seem plausible that could have thing tied on November 3,

Kerry has 164 Electoral Votes locked up in 12 Blue states + DC
Bush has 178 Locked up in 21 states


That leaves 196 Electoral votes in 18 states

Bush is leading outside the MOE in Missouri, Colorado and Arkansas with 26 EVs. That is based on averaging all the state polling data since the beginning of October.

On edit: Arkansas is actually within MoE.

Additionally, Bush is ahead, but within a 3.5% MOE in Wisconsin, West Virginia, Ohio. Virginia, Florida.

If Kerry beats him in Wisconsin, but Bush wins only the other 4 have a tie.

In all the other states 13 of them, Kerry is ahead (44 EVs, outside the MoE and 51 EVs inside the MoE).

Basically if thing stay precisely as they are today, but Kerry wins Wisconsin...we have a tie

There are a hundred caveats for each state within the MOE. the least of which is the Colorado referendum which will split the electoral vote proportionally base on PV if it passes.

If it ends up in a tie and the House elects Bush despite an overall popular vote victory for Kerry.. I would predict a 10 Million person march on the White House on inauguration day.