Reply #17: Undersampling of Democrats, Oversampling Of Republicans In Polls [View All]

[mermaid]

gives them the APPEARANCE of being close. They aren't.

After weeks of complaints that Gallup's samples had a GOP bias, note that their likely and registered voter results in yesterday's poll were based on party ID samples composed very closely along the lines of the 2000 exit poll turnout.

Likely Voter Samples

Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

GOP: 40%
Dem: 33%
Ind: 28%

Poll of September 24-26
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

GOP: 43%
Dem: 31%
Ind: 25%

Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%
772 Likely Voters

GOP: 35%
Dem: 39%
Ind: 26%

Folks, for Gallup’s likely voter methodology to be accurate you would have to accept that there was a 16% swing in party self-identification in one week, with 8% fewer likely voters self-identifying as Republicans and 8% more self-identifying as Democrats.

This is happening in many other places, too!!
Just the only actual documentation of this I can put my hands on at the moment.