Reply #25: Minnesota is ours. So are IA and WI. [View All]

[tedoll78]

Minnesota has always been ours. If Bush has ever been ahead there, it hasn't lasted very long. Kerry is consistently polling ahead of Bush or tied there. Nader's threat is reduced there as well.

Iowa? I detect a trend with early balloting. As of reports this weekend, voters identifying themselves as Democrats are returning twice as many early ballots as Republicans. Yes, you read that correctly. Many polls have shown the race here within the margin of error.

Wisconsin? The trend, once again, is in our direction. Kerry was definitely behind in most polling in the early part of the month, but now he's charged to at the very least a tie. Some polls are even putting him narrowly ahead. The GOP has pulled support for its challenger to Senator Feingold (who is now running away with his race), so this could serve to slightly depress GOP turnout. Meanwhile, Wisconsin residents have the chance to elect their very first African American representative to Congress; this will serve to boost African American turnout.

So I feel quite confident about each of these three states. Most polls in 2000 before election day were also showing a tie race, and Gore swept the region. For what it's worth..

And if Kerry wins Ohio (quite probably now), he can even afford to lose one of the three. Pretty sweet!