Reply #31: I don't think OR [View All]

[fujiyama]

will be the problem. Bush pulled resources out of the state. OR has been polling somewhere between 2 and 8 points. I predict Kerry to win it by about 5.

The other remaining potential "danger" state is New Mexico, which was decided by 366 votes in '00. This state wasn't much of a win, as much as a tie. Richardson did win though and that's somewhat encouraging, that too in a year that was disasterous for democrats. I also heard that this state could determine Richardson's own political future. If he doesn't deliver it, he may doom his own future.

If Kerry takes MN, IA, WI, and NM I'd be thrilled and somewhat surprised. But I am hopeful he will take FL and/or OH, which help make up for any potential loss from the other states.

If Kerry is relying on OH and NH as potential pick ups, then he must keep MN, and either WI, or NM and IA. I am hoping FL will not be a mess and KErry will win it by a large enough margin that makes it more difficult for them to steal it.