Reply #38: I should have explained I didn't count New Mexico as a "blue" state [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

That's why it wasn't on my danger list. I was looking for longterm Democratic states that were trending against us, and red states trending away from the GOP. Since New Mexico voted for Bush in '88 (by 5 points, in fact) unlike the other four states I mentioned, I don't consider New Mexico a classic blue state.

I think Kerry will win Oregon by 2-3 points, regardless of which side advertises there or does not. We have not managed more than 47.15% in Oregon since Dukakis pulled 51% in '88. The Kulungoski gov race in 2002 was much closer than anticipated and our 2002 senate candidate was blown out. Plus, a very good indicator is the '96 presidential vote in which Clinton did not manage his national margin in Oregon, even without Nader on the ballot.