Question: How Many Friends/Family Do You Know Who've... [View All]

[johnkerryyip145]

...switched sides since last time, i.e. from Bush to Kerry or from Nader to Kerry, or from Gore to Bush? (Or even from Nader to Bush.) I know we're all Lefties here, so our acquaintances are probably a bit skewed Left, but we all have friends and family who are on the Right.

For me (and i'm in Ohio) here's how it goes:

Of the people i know who voted for Gore last time:
All are voting Kerry (+0)

Of the people i know who voted for Nader last time:
All are voting Kerry (+3)

Of the people i know who voted for Bush last time:
6 people are voting for Kerry (+6)
3 people will not vote (+3)
3 moved out of state (one to IN, one to GA, one to NY) (+3)
All the rest are voting for Bush (+0)

Of the people i know who didn't vote last time:
4 for Kerry, 2 for Bush (+2)

Now my perspective might be a little skewed, b/c 4 of those Bush-to-Kerry votes come from my friend and his family, who have switched sides since then b/c my friend's now a paraplegic.

Still, i don't know anyone who has switched to Bush. Maybe i'm fooling myself, but Bush's numbers seem to be mostly shored up by non-voters from last time and not switchers. But the 2000 non-voter vote is dominated by Kerry, according to all the polls.

It seems to me that, if we all did such an analysis, and we all got even a +1 net for Kerry, then Kerry should be running away with this thing.

Where are Bush's numbers coming from?
Can the polls be this wrong?
Is there really a sizeable # of Gore-to-Bush votes?
When thinking about your friends and family, what kind of numbers do you get?