Reply #98: Re that second point: it's more of a reflection of the kind of candidates [View All]

[AP]

who get picked to be VP rather than a structural problem or problem of perception with being a losing VP candidate.

Remember that Kennedy was actually a loser for the VP race the one time that candidate in modern times said that the VPs should campaign for the spot at the convention. But the opportunity to run for VP raised his profile enough so that he had a platform from which to run for president the next cycle, and Kennedy took full advantage of that platform.

Beyond that, I think VPs who are picked to patch holes or satisfy some tiny niche end up not being successful P nominees because they were only ever meant to be patches. But VPs who are picked because they're good candidates in their own right (or reaffirm strenghts of the P nominee) have much better chances at getting the nomination in their own right. For example, if Clinton lost in '92, Gore probably would have had a great shot at the nomination even though he lost a run for pres in 88 and was on a losing ticket in 92, and that was because, essentially, he had the persona of a winning candidate (even if it wasn't the best persona). People like Kemp, Cheney, Ferraro never EVER would have a chance to get nominated, and this is reaffirmed by the fact that they'd never ran seriously themselves before or after thieir selection (OK, Kemp might have been one of 20 Repubicans running in 88, or whatever, but I don't think that was a serious run). Being a patch for weakness doesn't make for a well-rounded, winning P-nom persona.

Remember that most VP choices weren't even in the running for president. Kennedy picking Johnson, Reagan picking Bush and Kerry picking Edwards are the rare expamples of a candidate picking the second best candidate from the primaries. But notice what the first two have in common: they ended up becoming president eventually. I know they did it because their guy won, but Johnson and Kennedy were also candidates who were pretty serious candidates in their own right, and who actually ran reasonably well for president and didn't get the nomination. I'd group Edwards in with those candidates more readily than I would with Agnew, Bob Dole, Jack Kemp, Geraldene Ferraro or Dick Cheney