Reply #100: That's pure crap. I reject all your assertions. [View All]

[Lexingtonian]

Rhetoric and theory unburdened by evidence.

What makes you think there were 61 million Americans willing and able to vote for a Democrat in 2004?

You can always pretend that a perfectly run campaign would have won one fellow or the other an election that he didn't. But with an electorate that is just about the opposite of ideal and campaigns consisting of human beings, campaigns will always be grossly imperfect. What they can be is lucky- their opponent can fail of his own accord, events can put bizarre ideas into currency.

I consider Kerry's 57 million voters a good improvement over Gore's number and 1-2 million more than we could honestly expect. Our side increases in numbers by 3-3.5 million per Presidential term; Kerry got an increase of 4.5-5 million.

The Republican turnout effort in 2002 showed that they could increase their own voters by up to 15% over 2000. We had to hope that wouldn't work in 2004, but it did, and there's nothing I know that could have been done about it. The silver lining is that it's very improbable they can increase their numbers much beyond that, and even a repeat of it is going to be quite tough. They've also become wedge-able by running so far to the Right and so deeply into cultishness and alternatives to reality.

I'm not sure I see the problem. On 80-90% of U.S. problems there is very little that Kerry could possibly do that would vary greatly from Bush's. The building fiscal mess puts an awful lot of constraint on what is possible to do in a large scale. Kerry would have to deal with Republican majorities in Congress and a Supreme Court also leaning against him. So a progressive agenda would have to be put off until at least 2006.

The country is 64-65% white by population, yet 77% of American voters are whites due to the nonwhite population being on average much younger and its adults voting at lower rates. The net effect is that elderly white Americans- a demographic that leans Republican with a substantial margin- exert a disproportionately large amount of power and Latino voters a disproportionately small amount. This is where the advantage Republicans hold in votes and power and (supposed) legitimacy is generated. Kerry did about as well as I can tell possible in trying to overcome this disadvantage.