Reply #3: Here's my guess [View All]

[Yupster]

If we leave the insurgents will fight the largely Shi-ite government with assassinations and bombings.

The government will muddle along for while, but eventually it will lose patience and it will look the other way while the Shi-ite militias, especially the Sadr Army is called forth and sweeps through the Sunni triangle with a vengeance to get revenge for 25 years of torture and killings.

I believe there is a good chance the Sunni population could be the target of genocide and sent to flight to Syria.

Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but when the Sadr Army was told to stand down a year or so ago, I didn't see that as a permanent situation. I felt it was a call for patience until the US isn't around anymore to impede their plans.