Guys, i'm sick of all this crying about the media... [View All]

[jeter]

media, media, media, media, media, media, media, media, media, media, and oh yes, the media.

That's all we hear about now. Is this the first time you ever paid attention to or participated in the primaries?

This is EXACTLY what happens. If they wanted everyones votes to count they would have a national primary. They don't for a reason.

Because each individual election is a test of the various candidates. If there were one election, then the front-runners (usually establishment candidates) would ALWAYS win.

Why because the MEDIA would be going on and on about their front runner status, etc. Just like now.

Howard Dean got all the news attention last year and into the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary - why? Because he was the front runner.

It was Dean who put all his eggs into the Iowa and New Hampshire basket. He spent like $30 million there (which has to be a record of some sort). Dean was the one who was saying that if he won those primaries he would take out Gephardt and Kerry. He would have all this momentum and take out Edwards in South Carolina. Then he would be off to the races winning the nomination.

THAT WAS DEAN'S STRATEGY. Not the medias.

But Dean came in a very distant third in Iowa. Kerry (his main opponent in New Hampshire) came in first. Got a moon shot. He was on the cover of the weekly news magazines (just as Dean AND Clark had already been), he was on the front pages of the newspapers, he was talked about.

What did you expect would happen?

Did you think that Dean finishing third would keep him as front runner. And the person everyone thought was dead in the water (including myself) after a huge and surprising victory would be ignored? That was EXACTLY why Dean put so much time and money into those two first states. Because HE WANTED the moon shot. But he lost and his campaign went into tailspin. Not because of the media, but because his campaign had never anticipated that they would lose those first two primaries so badly.

He became irrelevant in the next 7 primaries. Because his support there was always contingent of winning the first two. So he decided not to compete at all.

If Dean wins Michigan, Washington and/or Wisconsin he will be back on peoples radars.

Case in point. 2000. In 2000, George W. Bush was the republican frontrunner. He had all the money, he had all the endorsements, all the attention. He won the Iowa caucus and was said to be the nominee. Then McCain shocked everyone and beat Bush in New Hampshire by 18%. Then it was all McCain all the time. The race went to South Carolina and Bush won. And it was all Bush, all the time. Then it went to Arizona/Michigan and McCain won again and it was "oh oh, Bush is in trouble." So it came down to Super Tuesday, McCain won Conneticut, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island and Massachusettes. Bush won Virginia, Ohio, North Dakota, New York and California. Bush won all the big states and McCain all the small ones. That gave the edge to Bush. The next week had the southern primaries, which Bush won easily. He won the nomination.

That's how it works. How it has always worked. How it will always work.

You want to get John Kerry off the front pages, beat him. That simple. The reason the media are "playing up" Edwards is that he came a close second in Iowa; won in South Carolina and came a very close second in Oklahoma.

Clark probably survived in Oklahoma because he won it.

You have to win to get noticed.

But winning one primary won't be enough. You have to win enough primaries to win enough delegates to win the nomination.

Kerry has already won 7 (out of 9). So he is the front runner. He will be talked about until someone beats him.

Its everyones choice whether or not they want to stay on. But in the next week we are going to have more primaries. Victories and losses will add up. Then more. Then more. Until one candidate has enough delegates to win it all.

It's not a conspiracy. It's a primary election.

Get use to it.