Reply #45: The DLC wouldn't care if her favorables were at 25% [View All]

[draft_mario_cuomo]

I doubt her favorables will ever sink that low but it would not be surprising if they fell into the 30's. She has fallen from 58% to 45% in about two months and is only six points from the 30's and the campaign season has barely begun. Most people are still not following the race.

Could she win the nomination with a 37% favorable rating? Yes. Right now there are two strong Democratic candidates splitting the anti-HRC/anti-DLC vote. HRC's favorables also remain strong among Democrats, although even there they are falling rapidly. She could very likely win with a 37% overall favorable rating as long as she retains a solid favorable rating among Democrats (her problem is with swing voters and independents. Her favorables have fallen the fastest with independents with the decline being the least among Republicans) and Edwards and Obama split the anti-HRC/anti-DLC vote. No one seriously doubts her ability to win the nomination. The question is whether she can win the general election. Is a vote for HRC a vote for President Giuliani or President Thompson? Let's see if she turns this around but the trend is very ominous. I hope we are smart. I hope we are not naive enough to nominate a candidate if his or her favorables are in the 30's...