Reply #16: According to CNN.. [View All]

[Shadoobie]

There are 4321 total delegates comprised of 801 "superdelegates" and 3520 primary/caucus delegates. Of the 3520, the total delegate count so far is:

Kerry 580
Dean 191
Edwards 167
Clark 57
Sharpton 16
Kucinich 2
Total 1013

If ther percentages, remain the same the final count for these delegates should look like:

Kerry 2015
Dean 664
Edwards 580
Clark 198
Sharpton 56
Kucinich 7
Total 3520

I left in clark since he received a decent number of delegates. The question is where his delegates will go. As he has endorsed Kerry, Kerry may end up with his delegates bringing Kerry's total to 2213.

This does not include the super delegates (801) but Kerry would already have the minimum (2161).

If you are are not a Kerry supporter, you would probably hate to see the nommination decided by the unpledged superdelegates. Therefore, Kerry's delegate count should not be higher than 1360 (2161-801). This means that Kerry should be prevented from getting more than 29% (1360-580-57)/(3520-1013) of the remaining delegates.

This percentage will increase if Clark delegates decided to support another candidate besides Kerry. Even if we disregard the Clark delegates, Kerry would still only need 31% of the remaining delegates. If Kerry gets 45% of the delegates from the remaining primaries, he will not need any superdelegate votes for the nomination.

I don't see how the other candidates can obtain enough delegates to prevent the outright Kerry nomination without some significant changes. The best bet may be to garner enough delegates to show that a significant minority did not approve of his nomination. How Kerry reacts to this will be an important factor to how people will vote in November.

~Greg