*** SUPER TUESDAY: Delegate PREDICTIONS (Based on latest polls) *** [View All]

[FlyingSquirrel]

Source for poll numbers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

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For these results, I used my previous polling data which, in polled Super Tuesday States, had these percentages:

All States: Clinton 41%, Obama 29%, Edwards 14%, Undecided/Other 16%
Red States: Clinton 40%, Obama 28%, Edwards 18%, Undecided/Other 16%
Blue States: Clinton 51%, Obama 25%, Edwards 11%, Undecided/Other 13%
Swing States: Clinton 40%, Obama 27%, Edwards 14%, Undecided/Other 19%

I then looked at polls done after Edwards had dropped out and noted the following percentages:

All States: Clinton 45%, Obama 42%, Undecided/Other 13%
Red States: Clinton 36%, Obama 49%, Undecided/Other 15%
Blue States: Clinton 50%, Obama 39%, Undecided/Other 12%
Swing States: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%, Undecided/Other 13%

So, the apparent change Post-Edwards was:

All States: Clinton +4%, Obama +13%
Red States: Clinton -4%, Obama +21%
Blue States: Clinton -1%, Obama +14%
Swing States: Clinton +6%, Obama +14%

Again, this is among Super Tuesday states that were polled.

I then used current polling numbers in the ST states which had been polled for my predictions. For the ones which had not been polled Post-Edwards, I added or subtracted from my latest numbers on Clinton and Obama based on the above change percentages. For states that had not been polled anytime recently, I used the average of current percentages for Clinton and Obama as follows: Red states, Clinton 36%, Obama 49%; Blue states, Clinton 50%, Obama 39%; Swing states, Clinton 46%, Obama 41%.

I got the following Percentages: (C=Clinton, O=Obama, U=Undecided/Other)

Alabama (52 Delegates): C 44, O 43, U 13 (Red)
Alaska (13 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Am. Samoa (3 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Arizona (56 Delegates): C 33, O 48, U 19 (Red)
Arkansas (35 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
California (370 Delegates): C 43, O 42, U 15 (Blue)
Colorado (55 Delegates): C 38, O 48, U 14 (Swing)
Connecticut (48 Delegates): C 46, O 42, U 13 (Swing)
Delaware (15 Delegates): C 44, O 42, U 14 (Blue)
Dems Abroad (7 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Georgia (87 Delegates): C 34, O 51, U 16 (Red)
Idaho (18 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Illinois (153 Delegates): C 40, O 51, U 9 (Swing)
Kansas (32 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Massachusetts (93 Delegates): C 57, O 33, U 10 (Blue)
Minnesota (72 Delegates): C 39, O 47, U 14 (Blue)
Missouri (72 Delegates): C 46, O 43, U 12 (Swing)
New Jersey (107 Delegates): C 46, O 40, U 14 (Swing)
New Mexico (26 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
New York (232 Delegates): C 54, O 38, U 8 (Blue)
North Dakota (13 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Oklahoma (38 Delegates): C 39, O 39, U 22 (Red)
Tennessee (68 Delegates): C 54, O 31, U 16 (Swing)
Utah (23 Delegates): C 29, O 53, U 18 (Red)

Delegate subtotal: Clinton 748, Obama 719, Uncommitted/Other 220

I then awarded Clinton and Obama each 25% of the Uncommitted delegates, and made the assumption that the remaining 50% would go to other candidates based on gaining 15% in some precincts. Obviously these assumptions are very arbitrary and do not take into account momentum, and probably overestimate the total number of delegates other candidates (including Edwards) may receive.

FINAL ST DELEGATE TOTAL: Clinton 803, Obama 774, Uncommitted/Other: 110

Using current Delegate and Superdelegate totals from the following source,

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

We get the following Post-ST Delegate Estimates: (Pledged; Super; Total)

Clinton 851; 197; 1,047
Obama 837; 106; 943

Uncommitted/Other: 12; 0; 122

P.S. If you're interested to see what is happening with Edwards' delegates and superdelegates, check the above site.

Total Delegates needed (without MI or FL): 2,025

Total Pledged Delegates still up for grabs: 1,374
Total Superdelegates still up for grabs: 493

(Above site says that 417 are undeclared. Since they also say 796 are available, I have not been able to figure out where the remaining 76 Superdelegates went. Perhaps someone can enlighten me)