Reply #5: Not necessarily. In this case you shouldn't be counting out the [View All]

[FlyingSquirrel]

Superdelegates.

Look what's happening.

If my prediction were to come true, Clinton would have 851 Pledged Delegates to Obama's 837 after Super Tuesday.

If, after this, the current percentages of support for each continued to hold true with neither breaking out, well, here are the delegates up for grabs after ST:

Red states: 439
Blue states: 291
Swing states: 644

Current percentages for Clinton/Obama:

Red states: Clinton 36%, Obama 49%
Blue states: Clinton 50%, Obama 39%
Swing states: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%

For the rest of the race, Clinton picks up 600 and Obama picks up 593 under this scenario. There are then 182 other delegates, plus the 122 uncommitted above. That's 304. Suppose Obama gets 55%, Clinton gets 45%. That's 167 for Obama, 137 for Clinton.

Now without Superdelegates, you have the following totals:

Clinton 1588, Obama 1597

Superdelegates then are CRUCIAL. Clinton has the edge here.

I know a lot of my numbers are off but the overall effect is the same. Unless either candidate picks up decisive momentum after Super Tuesday, it may very well come down to 796 people choosing our nominee.

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But let's not forget Michigan and Florida. Under this scenario Clinton may successfully argue that her victories in those two states (regardless of the validity of the Michigan vote) should be the deciding factor that gives her the nomination.