Reply #24: *** UPDATE *** Obama overtakes Clinton in Pledged Delegates? [View All]

[FlyingSquirrel]

Apparent change, Post-Edwards:

All States: Clinton +3%, Obama +14%
Red States: Clinton -2%, Obama +21%
Blue States: Clinton -4%, Obama +16%
Swing States: Clinton +5%, Obama +16%

Among Super Tuesday states that were polled.

Percentages input for states that have not been polled anytime recently: Red states, Clinton 38%, Obama 49%; Blue states, Clinton 47%, Obama 41%; Swing states, Clinton 45%, Obama 43%.

I also added 6 points for Clinton and subtracted 6 from Obama in Arkansas to compensate for the fact that this is Clinton's home state (also puts the percentage reasonably closer to the December poll in that state). I left American Samoa and Democrats Abroad alone since many may have already voted and the number of delegates are low anyway.

I got the following Percentages: (C=Clinton, O=Obama, U=Undecided/Other)

Alabama (52 Delegates): C 44, O 43, U 13 (Red)
Alaska (13 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Am. Samoa (3 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Arizona (56 Delegates): C 45, O 41, U 15 (Red)
Arkansas (35 Delegates): C 53, O 35, U 12 (Swing)
California (370 Delegates): C 41, O 44, U 15 (Blue)
Colorado (55 Delegates): C 37, O 50, U 13 (Swing)
Connecticut (48 Delegates): C 46, O 44, U 10 (Swing)
Delaware (15 Delegates): C 44, O 42, U 14 (Blue)
Dems Abroad (7 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Georgia (87 Delegates): C 36, O 50, U 14 (Red)
Idaho (18 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Illinois (153 Delegates): C 40, O 51, U 9 (Swing)
Kansas (32 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Massachusetts (93 Delegates): C 51, O 40, U 10 (Blue)
Minnesota (72 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Blue)
Missouri (72 Delegates): C 45, O 43, U 12 (Swing)
New Jersey (107 Delegates): C 46, O 40, U 14 (Swing)
New Mexico (26 Delegates): C 42, O 48, U 13 (Swing)
New York (232 Delegates): C 53, O 37, U 10 (Blue)
North Dakota (13 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Oklahoma (38 Delegates): C 41, O 39, U 20 (Red)
Tennessee (68 Delegates): C 52, O 35, U 13 (Swing)
Utah (23 Delegates): C 29, O 53, U 18 (Red)

Delegate subtotal: Clinton 740, Obama 731, Uncommitted/Other 217

I then awarded Clinton and Obama each 25% of the Uncommitted delegates, and made the assumption that the remaining 50% would go to other candidates based on gaining 15% in some precincts. Obviously these assumptions are very arbitrary and do not take into account momentum, and probably overestimate the total number of delegates other candidates (including Edwards) may receive.

FINAL ST DELEGATE TOTAL: Clinton 794, Obama 785, Uncommitted/Other: 109

Using current Delegate and Superdelegate totals from the following source,

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com /

We get the following Post-ST Delegate Estimates: (Pledged; Super; Total)

Clinton 842; 200; 1,042
Obama 848; 107; 955

Uncommitted/Other: 12; 0; 121

Wow. Talk about momentum. If Obama takes the lead in Pledged Delegates on Super Tuesday, there will be endless talk about superdelegates and their (rightful?) place in the nominating process.