Reply #46: Conversely, Obama does better in Virginia than Kerry OR McCain [View All]

[Leopolds Ghost]

Because he wins over disaffected military types (who are pissed at McCain for supporting
Bush's position on the war) Southern blacks, urban college techie crowd in Northern Virginia.

He won't win Hampton Roads against naval hero McCain but he WILL win huge PARTS of Hampton Roads
(the shipbuilding communities are heavily African American). He could offset McCain's advantage with
Webb, Clark or Kaine (a moderate, "consistent ethic of life" Catholic who is opposed to abortion
and the death penalty but not opposed to Roe v. Wade -- Kaine is probably to the left of Reid,
for instance, and many people including former black governor Doug Wilder considered him too
liberal for Virginia before he got elected governor, mainly because he's anti-death penalty.)

Obama is already doing better in Virginia than McCain is in Pennsylvania! Virginia
with its huge naval population and working class whites would be McCain's home turf,
but the evangelicals in southern Virginia (Falwell types) hate McCain and will only
vote against Obama because they're racists. The Appalachian folks in Southwest Virginia
are like the ones in Pennsylvania, except unlike the mountain men to the north, they
are yellow dog democrats and unionists who are big for Warner who is on the ticket.
(West Virginia, East Kentucky and the Virginia panhandle are a lot more Democratic
and unionized than other parts of Appalachia, but they coexist with some pretty racist
Southern Baptist parts, such as the areas around Lynchburg and Bristol).

Mudcat Saunders will probably lead a unified GOTV campaign down there. And they aren't
quite as racist in coal country as they are in other parts of Appalachia, but they are
pretty xenophobic of foriegners so the whole Hussein Obama thing could be a concern in
the small "blue counties" of Appalachia.

and many of the navy brats in Hampton Roads who are expected to come home to McCain
like they did against Kerry are socially moderate, African American, and will vote for
whoever ends the war which is why Kerry did better than expected in Hampton Roads,
an area traditionally associated with Reagan and Pat Robertson (no one down there
listens to Pat Robertson anymore, and he naturally hates McCain anyway.) So McCain
will be forced to rely on the fact that he was a Naval war hero, which did not help Kerry.