Five Reasons Why HRC Will Win the Democratic Nomination [View All]

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1. Increasing polarization

Voting in the Mississippi primary was highly polarized by race, with 9/10 blacks voting for Obama and 7/10 whites voting for Clinton. One in five whites indicated that race was a factor in their decision while four in ten blacks stated race was a factor. Racism begets racism. Since most black people have been supporting Obama for quite some time, it is likely that the majority of undecided voters in the remaining primary states are white and that most will ultimately opt for Clinton, because of the increasing racial polarization. There is some evidence that this is happening already. No remaining primary state has as large a percentage of black voters as does Mississippi.

2. Momentum

Notwithstanding Obama's recent wins in Wyoming and Mississippi, there are distinct signs that momentum is now with Clinton.

In Pennsylvania, the second most recent Rasmussen poll, dated 2/26, had Obama trailing Clinton by only 4 percentage points. The most recent one, dated 3/5 had Obama down by 15 percentage points. PA will be generating about ¼ of the remaining elected delegates.

In North Carolina, the second biggest remaining prize, the second most recent poll, dated 2/21, had Obama up by 14 points. The most recent poll, from 3/3, has Obama up by only 4 percentage points, with 10% of voters still undecided.

There are few meaningful polls from other states that have yet to select delegates. Obama had a 15 point lead in the only significant poll from Indiana, taken 2/17, but 35% of voters were still undecided. Clinton had a 21 point lead in the only significant poll from West Virginia, taken on 2/20, but 35% of voters were undecided. There are no meaningful polls available, to the best of my knowledge, from Kentucky, Oregon, or Puerto Rico. Clinton will likely win Puerto Rico by a wide margin.

Michigan and Florida will have to be counted one way or another – preferably in some manner fair to both candidates. Clinton's margin in both states will increase, not decrease, due to increasing concern about Obama among working class white voters in Michigan and the elderly and Latino blocks in Florida.

Clinton will likely reduce Obama's delegate margin significantly, win the overall popular vote, and have won all of the big and pivotal states, other than Illinois.

3. Electability

The Mississippi exit poll also revealed that nearly three-quarters of Clinton supported would be DISSATISFIED with Obama as the nominee and that half of them had a favorable impression of John McCain. By contrast, a bit more than half of Obama supporters would be dissatisfied with Clinton as the nominee and only a quarter of them had a favorable impression of McCain. McCain will therefore have a much greater opportunity for attracting crossover votes from Clinton supporters (if Obama is nominated) than from Obama supporters (if Clinton is nominated).

Obama's candidacy is so unique in its pattern of voter appeal that he has a distinct possibility of winning about five states that have voted Republican consistently in recent elections, but, if Obama is nominated, McCain will have a shot at about five pivotal, must-win states for the Democrats, where the white working class vote is a major factor. The number of electoral votes in the states placed at risk for Democrats by an Obama nomination is much greater than the number of electoral votes in the states he might move into the Democratic column. Granted, Obama could win (or lose) all ten of those states, depending on how the fall campaign plays out, but increasing racial polarization of the voting pattern will damage Obama's chances.

Clinton may or may not be able to beat McCain in the primary election (she has a small edge according to polls), but both are well-known to voters, so preferences between the two are likely to be relatively immutable. Clinton is likely to either win or lose by a fairly narrow margin. Obama, by contrast, is much more the newcomer and opinions about him are therefore more likely to be influenced by what transpires during the fall campaign. Obama has more potential than Clinton for winning by a landslide, but also has more potential for losing by a landslide. His charisma is undeniable and could result in a landslide victory, but his inexperience is undeniable as well (except for hardcore Obama-supporters) and, together with either a gaffe or two or a national crisis (such as War in Iran, which the Bush administration might undertake before leaving office), could result in a landslide victory for McCain.

4. The claim that Obama will be a "unifier" has been pretty much blown out the window. As it becomes increasingly evident that he is being supported mainly by two constituencies, black and young voters, he'll increasingly lose support from white blue-collar workers, the elderly, Latinos, white women, Catholics, and Jews.

5. HRC is the more qualified candidate and will be more likely to produce the kind of results during her presidency that could sustain continuing Democratic control of the White House.

That last point, of course, is a only an educated conjecture, which Obama supporters will no doubt dispute vociferously.

Enough of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates will ultimately move into Clinton's column to give her the nomination. All hell will then break out, but Obama will ultimately urge his supporters to back the Democratic ticket.