No one has mentioned the "Obama steps aside" scenario ... [View All]

[Alhena]

I realize that this may be viewed as near-heresy by some Obama supporters, but hear me out.

What if we get to the convention in Denver and Obama has been consistently trailing McCain by 10 points or so states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia and Missouri? Yes, I know we all expect and hope that this will not be the case, but what if it is? Is it conceivable at this point that Obama would consider telling Hillary "ok, you can be at the top of the ticket" and I'll be the VP?

Simply considering Obama's objective political interests, I think that would be the smart move for him. You only get one shot at the presidency these days, and if Obama loses to McCain in November, then he will wake up the next morning having basically reached the peak of his political career, except maybe a Secretary of State position. If he lets Hillary take the top of the ticket, however, then he will either be Vice President elect or he will be the presumptive future nominee of the Democratic party. Either way he will be a major player and a guy whose best years are still ahead of him.

This all assumes that the polls are strongly against him in the states I mentioned, as they are right now. I hope and expect that will change over the course of the summer, once Obama becomes the presumptive nominee. But if the polls in these states don't change then I don't think it would be at all unreasonable for Obama to considering letting Hillary have the top spot.

I think the main obstacle to this is personal- Hillary has been so cynical and destructive in this campaign that it would be very hard for Obama to step aside. And those considerations may carry the day, but Obama is a young guy and I don't think the scenario above is unthinkable. He would have much greater chances of winning in a year where he had the entire Democratic party behind him from the start and where he had years of experience in an office like VP to fall back on.