Reply #95: this I agree with: [View All]

[CitizenLeft]

There are more specific breakdowns like single women vs. married, older vs. younger, etc. Too much to detail. In totality Obama needs to come very close to breaking even among white women, particularly since he has apparent vulnerability among Hispanics. That group turned our way in '06 after detour among male Hispanics toward the GOP post-9/11.

That is very true. There's no way to know, at this moment, how he'll fare with white women in November. I suspect he will break even, maybe even do a little better. I'd like to see some comments on what McCain's appeal would be to white women - to any woman, actually. I guess it depends on how deeply that residual "soccer mom" mentality really goes.

BTW, I trust you were joking about the 27-30% of white males, a so-called triumph for Obama. Do the math on that. White males make up about 36% of the electorate, so a deficit along your terms simply cannot be overcome elsewhere.

No I wasn't kidding, though I did consider that my thoughts on that would be misinterpreted. Considering that white candidates could get no more than 38%, I think the 1st viable black candidate for the presidency ever getting 30% of the white vote would be fantastic - NOT in terms of what he needs to win... of course he needs to do better to win. But getting 27%-30% of the white male voter who traditionally votes Republican would, yes, be a truimph, in my opinion. Considering how nasty we all expect this campaign to get, it would say a lot about America. I do have hopes that we can overcome the barriers.

And yes, he will need Latinos to vote heavily in his favor - how heavily will depend on how serious the youth vote is, too. Not to mention a huge black turnout - hopefully large enough to overcome any caging or suppression efforts. All these combinations - young, AAs, Latinos, independents, half the women vote, and at least 30% of the white male vote - I'm hoping, will carry him over the top.