Reply #22: But the question is, how do you define popular will [View All]

[terrell9584]

Delegates or National Popular Vote. And what about FL and MI. I'll stand by the statement that at least Florida should count because that election followed what you would expect a Florida primary to look like. Michigan probably shouldn't without a revote, because I think Michigan probably in a competitive election would have been a three way split, or an Edwards/Obama battle.

North Carolina will be closer than everyone says, because there are many rural counties in the state where local offices end up in the hands of the Democratic Primary winner. Obama's victory would depend on winning the black vote and performing well with whites in the Triangle. The problem with this is, every single North Carolina poll I have seen shows between 15-20% undecided. I think in N.C, this is partially a reflection of continued support for Edwards (and his base was the Triangle) and partially, the undecideds serve as a screen for Clinton voters who don't want to tell pollsters they were Clinton voters. If you looked at most of the PA polls, and just the undecided margin, those undecideds broke for Clinton. Personally, I think they were with her all along but used undecided as a shield, and we may be seeing the same thing in North Carolina.

That being said, this has to play out. Obama's best chance of trying to hold a margin will be North Carolina. If he doesn't win by these gargantuan margins that every poll has him having (keep in mind with huge undecideds, I saw one poll with more than 20% in that camp), then it will be hard for him to maintain his margin if Clinton can pull off Indiana, because West Virginia and Kentucky will be Clinton's strongest states, she will pad her margin, and these are Southern states, rural voters in general have their local offices decided in Democratic primaries, so at primary time, they vote as Democrats. If Clinton keeps Obama within single digits in N.C, and this is possible given all of the undecideds, then essentially, any margin gain made there can probably be neutralized with a strong enough performance in KY and WV.

The other question is, do we include that which is not technically a state (Puerto Rico), but which, based on conventional wisdom, will probably provide a huge margin to Clinton.

It's why this all has to play out, because there are so many variables