Reply #3: It is the trend that is encouraging - Many states moving toward Kerry and [View All]

[yellowcanine]

NONE getting stronger for Bush. Last week one poll showed Arizona stronger for Bush but that was reversed this week and it is now narrowly in the Kerry column. This trend has continued despite the heavy anti-Kerry ads being run by Bush in the Battlaground states - that is what is encouraging. I am thinking that this race now is beginning to resemble the 1992 race in an almost uncanny way. If things continue as they are, Kerry will come out of the convention with a 5- 10 point lead nationally and leads in nearly all of the Battleground states that he will never relinquish. There will still be ebb and flow and the national polls will tighten a little right before the election, just as they did in 1992 but in the end it will be a fairly large EV win for Kerry, at least 350 EVs.