The Daily Widget – Tues 9/2 – O-323, M-215 – A Look Back At August National Polls [View All]

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. ANALYSIS

No new state polls have been released since last Thursday, before Barack Obama’s phenomenal acceptance speech and before the republican VP announcement. But the national polls have been busy.

CNN has two polls showing Obama leading nationwide by one point (head-to-head), or by two points when the question is opened up to all presidential candidates. But CBS News, on the other hand, shows Obama leading by eight points nationwide, while USA Today shows Obama winning by seven points. All three polls were conducted through Sunday, August 31. You can guess which poll is way off (hint: CNN).

The daily trackers have shown a similar bounce as the CBS and USA Today polls. Gallup has been ranging between Obama +6 and Obama +8 the past few days, while Rasmussen puts the range at Obama +3 to Obama +4.

Obama’s average lead in the National Monthlies for August was +3.2, while his average lead in the Daily Trackers for August was +1.9. Gallup was more in line with the National Monthlies at Obama +2.5 average, while Rasmussen was dismally off the mark at Obama +1.3 average.





There were 15 National Monthly polls released during August:

8/4 – Time Magazine – Obama 46, McCain 41 – (+5)
8/5 – CBS/New York Times – Obama 45, McCain 39 – (+6)
8/10 – Pew Research – Obama 46, McCain 43 – (+3)
8/16 – Reuters/Zogby – Obama 41, McCain 46 – (-5)
8/17 – Quinnipiac University – Obama 47, McCain 42 – (+5)
8/18 – NBC/Wall St Journal – Obama 45, McCain 42 – (+3)
8/18 – LA Times/Bloomberg – Obama 45, McCain 43 – (+2)
8/19 – CBS/New York Times – Obama 45, McCain 42 – (+3)
8/19 – Fox News – Obama 42, McCain 39 – (+3)
8/22 – ABC/New York Post – Obama 49, McCain 45 – (+4)
8/23 – USA Today/Gallup – Obama 48, McCain 45 – (+3)
8/24 – CNN – Obama 47, McCain 47 – (+0)
8/31 – CNN – Obama 49, McCain 48 – (+1)
8/31 – CBS/New York Times – Obama 48, McCain 40 – (+8)
8/31 – USA Today/Gallup – Obama 50, McCain 43 – (+7)

The current average of the National Dailies is Obama +3.4, which is above its overall average of Obama +3.1. The Big 12 Monthlies now show Obama leading by 3.8, and that’s only slightly below its overall average of Obama +4.6. When everything is all wrapped up in a nice, neat package, we see Obama currently leading nationwide by 3.7. That’s a lead beyond the margin of error.





* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS


~~~ No new state polls ~~~


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








* * * * * * *


8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du