Reply #18: Good question! I made a change worth noting ... [View All]

[phrigndumass]

We're officially in the third stage of the numbers history for this election cycle, or to put it another way, we've turned another corner. The first stage was Obama's rise from the time of his primary victory to around July 4. The second stage was his fall from July 4 to just prior to the convention. Since his numbers are trending up again, we're on the post-convention rise stage.

I used a linear trend line (straight) for the first stage. I switched to a poly-2 trend line (one curve) for the first and second stages together. Now I am using a poly-3 trend line for all three stages together.

If we see a fourth stage (a trend downward lasting a week or more), I'll switch to a poly-4 trend line for that, and so on.

Did that help? :hi:

The stages can be seen on this graph (green line):