Reply #31: Alaska is no longer lean McCain [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

The trading price is above 90. That's quite a lean.

Not that Alaska was ever in play, even before Palin. State polls in Alaska always overstate Democratic strength by at least 4%.

That's what always amazes me about models that rely heavily on state polls. They take them at face value regardless of past history. I'm not sure I can remember a single cycle in which Alaska statewide polls accurately depicted the true margin between the two candidates in a major statewide race. Some of the examples were laughable, like 2002 when the final poll had Fran Ulmer within striking distance of Frank Murkowski. She was buried by 15%. Similar in 2004 when Knowles led Lisa Murkowski in literally every poll for more than a year, averaging in the 4% range, then Murkowski won by 4%.

A state with 44% self-identified conservatives is not a "lean" state, not in the real world where voting realities matter above graphs and charts.

The interesting aspect is the Begich/Stevens senate race. I'm positive that race is much closer than the current polling indicates. It will require tons of ballot splitting for Begich to win. But since he's from Anchorage, where the numbers are, he should be able to hold on and win narrowly. Tony Knowles also used a position as mayor of Anchorage to jumpstart higher political ambitions. But Knowles lost his first major statewide bid, for governor in 1990. That race also defied the polling, with Knowles losing by 8%.

At least Indiana has been properly shifted, out of the lean category.

Overall we're in great shape -- House, Senate and Obama. I hate to come across as negative but it irks me when out-of-reach states are hyped on DU, leading to false optimism. That happens every cycle, notably Georgia.