Reply #50: A few small caveats. First, none of those 11 million new Dems will be in polls... [View All]

[SteppingRazor]

of likely voters, or even polls of registered voters depending on when the poll was taken and how the polling company gains its information on registered voters.

So, it wouldn't be media and polling companies lying. It would be polling companies unable to account for the huge swaths of new registrations. Some have been trying to weight it properly, but it's purely a guessing game, especially when the standard of "likely voter" is used.


Second, yes the Democrats will gain in the House and Senate this year. But those likely Senate pickups are in places like Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia -- formerly red states that have trended blue over the last several cycles. That's totally different than a national election for president, which has to consdier more than the trends in one state.


Third, like it or not, McCain's VP pick -- and the ensuing convention, the bounce of which trumped the previous bounce of the DNC -- has had a real effect on the election, and it's not common sense to argue otherwise, it's obstinance.

All that said, a convention bounce is merely that -- a bounce. It will come back down in a couple weeks, especially in light of changing events, such as the debates. Indeed, the electoral map of the last week, in which a measurement of the state-by-state polls has McCain barely winning the election (Source: http://electoral-vote.com/ ) likely represents a high-water mark for the McCain camp. Look at it this way: McCain only wins if he can win New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and Indiana. Obama only needs to steal one of those away, and the election's his.

Finally, I understand your incredulousness, but you have to remember that Bush's own approval sits at about 33 percent right now. Add to that another 17 percent or so who don't like Bush but do believe that McCain is a "maverick," and just like that, you're up to 50-50.

No one is lying to you, but a lot of people are lying to themselves.