Reply #24: This comes as no surprise to me. [View All]

[apnu]

Elections are as much about voting for your guy, as they are about turning out votes for your guy. He who runs the better campaign (both in terms of image and turnout of the "base") and gets lucky breaks wins elections because that better campaign will be better at getting people out to vote for you.

Going all the way back to Regan-Carter, you'll see this pattern. Regan ran a better campaign than Carter, and had the lucky break of going up against an unpopular President. (I have no direct knowledge beyond Carter except what's in history books, so I'll stay in the modern era)

Again in 1984, Regan ran a better campaign and Mondale didn't plus shot himself in the foot too, lucky for Regan.

Bush-Dukais? same pattern, more effective campaign, and luck that Bush looked less like a loser than his opponent.

Clinton-Bush, again the same thing. Clinton ran the superior campaign, against an unpopular sitting President and had the luck enbodied in Ross Perot.

Clinton-Dole. Clinton ran an excellent campaign, and Dole looked dead from the get go. Lucky for Clinton, considering that during the mid-term elections, Democrats got pasted bad.

Bush-Gore, Bush ran a better campaign than Gore. Rove controlled the tone of the campaign and made Gore play defense half the time. Then they had the luck of it all comming down to FL, where they knew they had the inside track, and the extra luck of Nader.

Bush-Kerry, once more, Rove ran a superior campaign to Kerry's which seemed to never figure out what it was trying to say, simply, to the American people. And Bush had the luck of 9/11 and (enough remaining) popularity of the Iraq war, plus stacking the deck in OH to make sure that key state stayed red.

And now Obama-McCain. Obama, clearly, ran a superior campaign than McCain which will go down in history as what not to do. Obama had some measure of luck on his side because of an unpopular sitting President, and a campaign game-changer in the economy which always favors Dems, generally.