Reply #4: Yeah, it's great! and no surprise [View All]

[George_S]

The bad news for Mr. Bush is that the Law of Unintended Consequences seems to be taking hold. While 13% of the electorate has moved away from Mr. Kerry because of the ads, 23% has moved away from Mr. Bush because of the ads. And while one-fifth of the electorate believes the Swift Boat Veterans’ side of the story, fully half (50%) believe the story of Mr. Kerry and his fellow crewmates.

Mr. Bush’s campaign may be hurt on two fronts by these ads, first from the independent swing vote, and second by the Democratic base. One in five (20%) independent voters have moved away from Mr. Bush in response to the ads, while only 13% have moved away from Mr. Kerry. Independents also remain unconvinced of the charges—while 16% believe the Swift Boat Veterans, nearly half (49%) believe Mr. Kerry’s side of the story.

This ad campaign may have also impacted voter intensity in a way the Swift Boat Veterans did not intend. The ads seem to have shored up Mr. Kerry’s base, and energized core Democrat voters to work harder to elect Mr. Kerry. More than two in five (44%) Democrats and half (50%) of Kerry/Edwards voters are now less likely to vote for Mr. Bush or more likely to vote for Mr. Kerry because of the Swift Boat ads. In contrast, just one in five (22%) Republicans and one-quarter (25%) of Bush/Cheney voters are more likely to vote for Mr. Bush or less likely to vote for Mr. Kerry.