Reply #2: That would be the PPP Poll with the 4% down [View All]

[FreeState]

the poll assumed 10% more conservatives turn out than historically has been the case - Nate Silver/fivethirtyeight.com said if you adjust it for historical turnout it was 46 - 53 for equality:)

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/2009-elections-preview-maine-question-1.html

Analysis: All the polls show a very low number of undecideds, so like most close elections, it's a question of turnout. And the pollsters have different opinions about what turnout is liable to be. PPP has people under 45 representing about 38 percent of the electorate, whereas Research 2000 has them at 51 percent of the electorate. PPP's figures are a closer match for Maine's 2006 electorate, when 36 percent of voters were 45 or under.

On the other hand, PPP shows conservatives outnumbering liberals 36-23, whereas those numbers have been about evenly split in exit polling of Maine's elections in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Were the liberal-conservative split to match 2006, for example, when Maine's electorate was 26 percent liberal, 26 percent conservative, and 48 percent moderate, then Question 1 would fail 46-53, according to PPP's internals.